Moon Polling – Ipsos Mori

Polling

Ipsos-Mori Poll 28/01/2016

Tories increase their lead to nine, projected Majority of 64

Ipsos-Mori have released their first voting intention poll of 2016 and the headline figures make more bleak reading for Labour. The Conservative lead has increased from 7% to 9%. The detail sees the pollsters southern problem return, seeing a 7.5% swing to Labour in the South of England (Excluding London) which is clearly nonsense. The rest is in line with what you would expect, Labour doing a little bit better in London, but the Tories doing better than their General Election performance in the North, Midlands, Yorkshire & Wales. Scotland again sees the Tories in second place, although the 34% share the Tories are given, only 10% behind the SNP is clearly an outlier. The breakdown of the poll is below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori (28/01/2016)

UK Voting Intention – Con 40% Lab 31% LD 7% UKIP 11% Green 4% – Con lead 9%

Regional Seat Projection (Current boundaries)

Con 357 Lab 218 LD 7 SNP 45 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18 –

Con Majority of 64

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Conclusion 

Caution is required with this poll due to the elements that are out of line with other polling. On the seat projection it is likely that the SNP are too low as the Tory share in Scotland exaggerates the number of seats the Tories would take there, Labour are too high due to the nonsensical south of England figures, and the Tories projection is about OK given there Scottish gains they would not get in reality are offset by the southern losses to Labour they would not lose in reality. As a result the eventual projected Tory majority is in the 60-80 trend we have seen with the majority of pollsters, even if it took a round about way of getting there.

The Numbers

As a result of this poll the average Tory poll lead over Labour increases from 8.1% to 8.4%. The poll of polls projected Tory majority is unchanged at 70. All the updated figures can be found here.