American’s sound warning to indulgent Republicans.


Front runner for the Democratic nomination Hilary Clinton is well on course to become president against all her major potential Presidential rivals according to Public Policy Polling. Rand Paul is the closest trailing Clinton by 3%, Rubio, Bush and Walker are all 5% down. Conservative favourites Ted Cruz and Donald Trump trail by 8% and 13% respectively. Trump is also behind against Bernie Sander, the only other democrat candidate to declare, despite the fact Sanders is widely accepted to have very little chance of defeating Hilary Clinton. The Republican candidate needs to gain Florida, Virginia and Ohio and then one of New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Colorado or Wisconsin. It is likely a 3% national lead would be required to do this. At present none of the Republican candidates is even on course to gain Florida, never mind the rest. Cruz would likely lose North Carolina, while Georgia and Missouri could also be Democrat gains if Donald Trump was the candidate.


Public Policy Polling US Presidential Election National Polls (22/06/2015) (Democrat in blue, Republican in red)

Hilary Clinton 45% Rand Paul 42%  – Implied Electoral College Result – Hilary Clinton 332 Rand Paul 206

Hilary Clinton 46% Marco Rubio 41%  – Implied Electoral College Result – Hilary Clinton 332 Marco Rubio 206

Hilary Clinton 46% Jeb Bush 41%  – Implied Electoral College Result – Hilary Clinton 332 Jeb Bush 206

Hilary Clinton 46% Scott Walker 41%  – Implied Electoral College Result – Hilary Clinton 332 Scott Walker 206

Hilary Clinton 48% Ted Cruz 40% -Implied Electoral College Result – Hilary Clinton 347 Ted Cruz 191

Hilary Clinton 50% Donald Trump 37% – Implied Electoral College Result – Hilary Clinton 373 Donald Trump 165

Bernie Sanders 47% Donald Trump 37% – Implied Electoral College Result – Bernie Sanders 347 Donald Trump 191


The main moderate contenders while being behind, are far from being the candidate yet so there is scope for the position of Rand Paul, Scott Walker or Jeb Bush to improve. Let us not forget they need a 3% lead to put themselves in a winning position so are not as far away as it first looks, although Hilary would still start favourite against any of them. The Republican right are running a #wakeupamerica campaign on Facebook and Twitter heavily backing Trump and Cruz. This evidence suggests America are throwing the wake up tag back at them, as it looks highly likely either of those two being the candidate will almost certainly end with President Hilary Clinton.


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