Local by elections and polls from ICM & Survation

WAP

There were six local by elections on Thursday in what proved a miserable night for Labour. They were thrashed by the Conservatives in a seat in the key Midlands marginal of Nuneaton and they also lost a seat to the Tories in Exeter, the sort of seat you would only expect to be lost in a night that would point to a landslide Tory victory in the national sphere. The Lib Dems regained a seat from the Conservatives in Powys in the Westminster seat of Brecon and Radnor, where the Tories won in May. There were also two by elections in Scotland in which the SNP continue to sweep all before them.

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Crosskeys (Caerphilly) – Lab 354 PC 179 UKIP 166Lab Hold – Swing from May 2012 Lab-PC 8.5%

Glasbury (Powys) LD 457 Con 415 Ind 106 Green 52LD GAIN From Con – No LD candidate last time so swing n/a

North Lanarkshire (Wishaw) SNP 1915 Lab 1230 Con 385 SSP 117 UKIP 57 LD 37SNP Hold – Swing from May 2012 Lab-SNP 20.7%

Danny & Banknock (Falkirk) SNP 2575 Lab 549 Con 431 Green 170SNP Hold – Swing from May 2012 Lab-SNP 23%

Pinhoe (Exeter) Con 755 Lab 749 UKIP 143 LD 63 Green 62 Ind 11CON GAIN from Lab – Swing from May 2012 Lab-Con 6.7%

Nuneaton Whitestone (Warwickshire) Con 1281 Lab 503 UKIP 292 Green 119Con Hold – Swing from May 2013 Lab-Con 7%

Projected national share based on last 20 local by elections – Con 33.3% Lab 28.8% LD 15.8% UKIP 10.4% Green 3.7%

ICM & Survation Polls

Two voting intention polls have been released this week. Bothin giving the Tories comfortable leads. The polls show the folly of reliance on uniform swing. The Tories have a bigger headline lead with ICM but when the seat projection is broken regionally down The Tories have a bigger projected majority with Survation due to them recording a huge Tory swing in the Midlands, bigger than other polls, although all polls have recorded a decent Tory swing in the region.. It continues to be the case that Labour are doing better in the North-West than elsewhere. My suspicion remains this is because the North-West is still holding out hope Andy Burnham may win the Labour leadership, where the rest of the country are assuming a Corbyn win and the Labour vote is collapsing elsewhere accordingly.

Two other things to note. There are two consistent pattern outside the North-West, The Tories are racking up extra votes in the Midlands and in Wales. It appears both are completely unimpressed by the Labour leadserhip contest. The other interesting thing is in the South. Survation, as many polls in May saw, had a big swing to Labour in the south. There is no evidence of a big Labour surge in the south (Take the Exeter by election above as an example.) However with the Tories having a huge 28% lead across the south, modelling a representative sample is very difficult. This is a big reason why Survation’s headline Tory lead is less than ICM and other polls released since May.

It should also be stated Survation’s poll was part of a wider poll into the Labour leadership, where those polled had been pre disposed to 4 minutes of pro Labour videos as part of that process. That too may play a part in the lower Survation Tory lead. The figures are as follows.

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD (Seat projections beased on regional shared & Current Boundaries)

ICM 10/08/2015

Vote Share – Con 40% Lab 31% UKIP 10% LD 7% Green 4%

Seat Projection – Con 342 Lab 218 LD 8 SNP 59 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 NI 18Con majority 32

Survation 14/08/2015

Vote share – Con 38.5% Lab 32.6% UKIP 14.7% LD 5.6% Green 2.8%

Seat Projection – Con 359 Lab 204 LD 9 SNP 55 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 NI 18Con majoirty 68

Conclusion

As of now the conservatives remain in total control of most aspects of the current political scene apart from Scotalnd. The signs are ominous for Laboue who are likely to elect Jeremy Corbyn, which has excited the Labour left, especially on Social Media, but the prospect clearly is not exciting the General Public. The one area Labour are holding up is the North-West, where they are still hopeful of a different outcome, even then, there is no great excitement for Labour.

The Lib Dems still have a long road, they do appear to be re-building some support in local by elections but this has not translated yet to double figures in the opinion polls. There are however some signs of Lib Dem life and that will be welcome for new leader Tim Farron. The SNP are still dominant in Scotland and the local elections there suggest the SNP are on target for around 50% of the vote in the Hollyrood elections. UKIP appear to be struggling to contest seats anywhere at the moment and will have a tough job finding relevance in the new political reality of Tory dominance.

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