As part of wider Labour leadership polling Communicate Research had produced another Voting Intention poll along with it and the results are sensational. The poll gives David Cameron his biggest poll lead for five years with any pollster leading by 14% on the UK voting intention. The details give the Tories a 15% lead in England. Regionally broken down the poll gives the Tories a 7.5% swing against Labour across both the Midlands and Wales. More dramatically, it also give the Tories an 8.5% swing across the North of England, an area that until now has held up for Labour.
There is very little change in Scotland with the SNP still polling at 49%. The Tory vote edging up is statistically enough to take Berwickshire from the SNP, the averages also give the Tories 3 more seats against the Lib Dems which will be far more difficult to take in reality. The swings across the North, Wales and the Midlands would give the Tories 66 gains from Labour leading to the Tories having 401 seats, a Majority of 152 based on the projection for current boundaries. This would leave Labour a rump of 166 seats, only one more than the Tories had after the 1997 thrashing.
MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD
Communicate Research Poll 25/06/2015
Voting Intention – UK Wide Con 42% Lab 28% UKIP 9% LD 8% Green 6%
Voting Intention – Eng only Con 44% Lab 29% UKIP 10% LD 8% Green 6%
Voting Intention – Scot Only SNP 49% Lab 21% Con 17% Green 6% LD 4% UKIP 3%
Seat Projection (Based on regional patterns & Current Boudnaries)
Con 401 Lab 166 LD 5 SNP 55 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern ireland 18
Conservative Overall Majority 152
There has been talk of the fact the Tories could win a landslide if Jeremy Corbyn wins the leadership. Until now that has been theory. Of course polls like this at this point in the cycle have to be treated carefully and it is of course only one poll, but this is the first cold statistical evidence that such talk of a landslide in 5 years time is a very real possibility indeed, based purely on real numbers, not just talk, comment or theories.