Communicate Research who seem to have contracts that will have them produce most of the polls have released their latest. The fieldwork was before Jeremy Corbyn’s keynote speech to the Labour conference so any impact from that does not affect this poll. On the face of it this is a bit better for Corbyn than previous Com Res polls, the Tory lead is 9%, in single figures for the first time wuth this pollster. It also does not produce a three figure Tory majoirty on the seat projection.
The reason for the improvement however needs to be treated with caution. Up until now the deifference in the south of England which I have written about before, has not been an issue in Com Res polls, it is here, The South and London sees a pro Labour swing in the poll, with every other region going the other way (Against the May result). This brings it into line with other polls, but also moves it into territory that made the polls inaccurate in May. If the south had a similar change to the rest of the country, the Tory lead would be around 13%
It is this that reduces the Tory majority on the seat projection as well from the three figures we have seen in other Com Res polls. Although it is still a comfortable lead for the Tories. The good news for Corbyn is in the wider poll, where a majority said he was not a threat to security. That has been the Tory line and so far it is not working. Corbyn is however still well behind David Cameron on best PM (61%-30%) and dealing with the economy (48%-29%).
MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD
Com Res 29/09/2015
Voting Intention UK – Con 39% Lab 30% UKIP 13% LD 9% Green 3%
Voting Intention Scotland – SNP 45% Con 20% Lab 19% Others 16%
Region seat Projection (Current Boundaries) – Con 357 Lab 207 SNP 55 LD 8 UKIP 1 Green 1 NI 18 – Con Majority of 64
Corbyn and Labour will take comfort from the slight improvement, but have little grounds for doing so as it is purely due to ongoing sample issues in the south of England which given they contridict the rest of England, cannot be assumed correct. In the Midlands where most key seats are the Labour position continues to be dire, and it is not much better in the rest of England either. This poll did not back up Corbyn’s improvement in Wales seen in other polls, and it is another sub sample with the Tories ahead of Labour in Scotland. David Cameron and the Conservatives can go into their first conference since winning a majoirty full of confidence knowing they are well ahead with no real cause for concern regarding the main opposition right now.