Numbers Round up – by-elections & YouGov


By Elections

There were several by elections on Thursday evening. Most of them in Scotland. There was only one in England where Labour got their first gain in a Tory-Lab contest since Jeremy Corbyn was elected. The context of the gain however is that it is a multi member ward where the Tory stood down, but the other seats were won by Labour and Labour had most votes on General Election day, so oddly Labour could get this gain by standing still. They did a bit better than that with a 2.5% swing. That change in a hypothetical across the whole country would still see the Tories ahead on votes and seats, never the less, it is a win for Jeremy Corbyn that will be welcome in the south of England where for the moment the rot stops with this result, something Labour will hope is the start of better things to come.

In Scotland the picture was less rosy for Labour. The SNP only lost in one seat and that was to an Independent in Moray. The SNP won everywhere else with the Tory vote up and Labour vote down almost everywhere (Linlithgow is the exception.) The biggest failure is in Glenrothes West, before May Glenrothes was one of Labour’s safest Westminster seats seats, they only needed a 0.5% swing here to get this ward back and they failed very badly. This shows Labour are making no serious progress in Scotland as the SNP march on.


By Elections 01/10/2015

Grimsbury & Castle (Cherwell) Lab 781 Con 661 UKIP 150 LD 73 Green 72 – Lab gain from Con- Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 2.6%

Irvine Valley (E Ayrshire) 1st Pref SNP 1797 Con 865 Lab 860 Green 88 – SNP Hold on 2nd rnd – Swing (May 2012) SNP-Con 0.2% – Con beat Lab into 2nd

Glenrothes W & Kinglassie (Fife) SNP 2235 Lab 1207 Con 234 Green 113 – SNP Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 12.9%

Stirling East (Stirling) – SNP 1311 Lab 1094 Con 343 Green 152 – SNP Hold on 3rd Round – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 9.4%

Heldon & Laitch (Moray) Ind 1323 SNP 1003 Con 703 Green 192 – Ind Gain from SNP in round 3 – Swing n/a

Linlithgow (West Lothian) – SNP 2049 Lab 1088 Con 973 Green 282 Ind 230 LD 133 – SNP Hold on Round 4 – Swing (May 2012) SNP-Lab 0.6% – :Lab beat Con into 3rd

Midsocket & Rosemount (Aberdeen) SNP 1168 Con 672 Lab 605 LD 238 Green 178 – SNP Gain from Con on 4th round – Swing (May 2012) SNP-Con 4% – Con beat Lab into 3rd

George Street & Harbour (Aberdeen) SNP 961 Lab 490 Con 195 Green 136 LD 96 – SNP hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 11%

YouGov Poll

It was like the old days as YouGov released their latest poll at 10pm last night (They released one at 10pm daily for some time between 2010-2015). The Tory lead UK wide is 6% on this poll down from 8% last week. However the regional breakdowns as in most polls make for more positive reading for the Tories and less so for Labour. The old Southern issue raises it’s head with the Tories only 14% ahead in the south, A 6.5% swing to Labour since May. Every other region including Wales goes the other way and leads to an increased lead on the seat projection, despite little change on the VI headline. The poll also sees the Tories ahead of Labour in Scotland, this is fast becoming a consistant pattern on the Scottish sub samples, and given the Tories improvement in the by elections in Scotland last night too, can no longer be ignored or assumed to be an outlier. UKIP are also up to 17%, the migrant crisis is certainly helping them at the moment and has given them an identity post May’s general election.


YouGov 01/10/2015

Voting Intention UK Wide – Con 37% Lab 31% UKIP 17% LD 7% Green 2%

Voting Intention Scotland – SNP 49% Con 26% Lab 17% Others 12%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 354 Lab 211 SNP 54 LD 8 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 NI 18Con majority 58


Conservative – Will be dissappointed with the Cherwell result as it shows they will not going winning all the Labour Vs Conservative battles that come up in the future as they have been, but given the context it is not cause for great concern and the poll is in line with others showing them still very much ahead. They will be delighted with what happened in Scotland where their vote was up in all but one ward and they beat Labour into second place in two of the wards. Confidence going into the Hollyrood election must be growing that they can make some good gains under Ruth Davidson.

Labour – Will of course be pleased to finally have a victory due to in their gain in Cherwell which they will try and present as proof they can win on the south of England. In Scotland however, the position looks as dire as it ever did. The Glenrothes result particularly shows the scale of the problem, a seat until the SNP surge, they would never be losing in any circumstances is now on paper a very safe SNP seat.

SNP – Nicola Sturgeon marches on much as before. The only concern will be the Moray result where the Tory vote was up and a strong Independent vote saw the SNP beaten. Is their a risk as they march to victory across Scotland in areas they traditionally have not won, they are taking their own traditional areas for granted? Moray of course was an SNP westminster seat long before the SNP surge, yet still voted No in the Indy referendum.


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