2015’s Final by election & local projected share


The final by election of the year took place in Buckinghamshire last night where the Conservatives despite seeing a drop in their vote, held on to their Grendon Underwood & Brill seat on Aylesbury Vale district council. The Lib Dems took advantage of their being no Green candidate with as strong performance to move ahead of UKIP into a solid second. Labour had no candidate, if one were to be cruel, you might say it sums up their recent ‘can’t be bothered’ attitude.


Grendon Underwood & Brill (Aylesbury Vale) – Con 326 LD 275 UKIP 148Con Hold – Swing (From May 2015) Con-LD 18.5%

UK PROJECTED SHARE (Based on the last 20 by elections)

Con 36.2% Lab 28.5% LD 18.1% UKIP 9.2% SNP 3.9% Green 2.3%


The Tories end the year 7.7% ahead on the projected share, a bigger lead than they had at the General Election itself. For a Governing party in it’s sixth year of office this is highly unusual even for a Government in a strong position and says everything about the failure of Labour under Jeremy Corbyn to make any impression at all. The Lib Dems continue to re-build at local level and UKIP are falling off their recent highs. In Scotland the SNP remain in control despite recent suggestions that sweeping everything as they did in May in next years Hollyrood elections is not as certain as it was.

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