Moon Elections – Botcherby by election – 07th Jan 2016

WAP

Local by Elections

Botcherby on Carlisle

Labour lose council seat in Carlisle

There was just one by election last night to kick off 2016 made all the more interesting by the fact it was located in Carlisle, a key 2020 Westminster marginal, and in an area of Carlisle that had been affected by the flooding and had been visited by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. The seat was a Labour defence won on General Election day, Jeremy’s visit obviously did not do the trick.

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD


 

Local by elections – 07/01/2016

Botcherby (Carlisle) Ind 381 Lab 250 Con 115 Ind GAIN from Lab – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Ind 10.7%

National Projected share (Based on last 20 local by elections)

Con 36.1% Lab 28.8% LD 18.1% UKIP 8.9% SNP 3.9% Green 2.3%


 

Conclusion

Labour – another failure for Labour, albeit in this case to an Independent, in a council seat in a Westminster marginal. The Labour share of the vote was also up only 0.4%. 2016 starts in the same dismal way as 2015 for the opposition.

Conservative – The Tory vote fell as well by 5%, as they were squeezed allowing the Independent candidate to win. As a result the Tories have excuses for the fall, and even on these figures the Westminster seat of Carlisle would stay blue assuming the Tory and Labour totals were consistent across the constituency. As a one off the Tories will not be too concerned as they were not competitive in terms of winning the council seat, but will be keen to ensure it does not become a trend.

The Figures – The result means the Tory lead on the National projected share over Labour falls slightly from 7.7% to 7.3%

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