Moon Elections – Launceston Central by-election

WAP

Elections

Launceston Central by Election

Lib Dems hold on to safe seat with reduced majority

Once again there was only one by election this week. Last we were in the far north of England in Carlisle, this week it is to the deep south-west in Cornwall. The seat is a bit of a rarity these days, a safe Lib Dem seat. Surprisingly Labour did not stand, leaving the Conservatives to try and challenge in a seat the Lib Dems were never going to lose.

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Election 14/01/2016

Launceston Central (Cornwall) – LD 515 Con 226 Green 65 Christian Alliance 12LD Hold – Swing (From May 2013) LD-Con 9.1%

National UK Projected Share (Based on last 20 by elections fought)

Con 36.4% Lab 28.8% LD 17.6% UKIP 9% SNP 3.9% Green 2.3%

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Conclusion – Both the Lib Dems and the Tories will be happy. The Lib Dems safely hold the seat and were in no danger of losing it and will use the big win as part of their ‘fightback’ narrative. The Tories have earned a creditable swing to close the gap in second place with their vote share increasing by 10% on 2013 and for future contests Labour will be damaged by not standing and having to start again from scratch.

On the projected vote share, the Tories lead over Labour increases from 7.4% last week to 7.6% as a result of this by election.

 

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