Three new opinion polls were out at the weekend suggesting as we head into the new year not a lot has changed. Survation gave the Tories a headline lead of 8.4%, Panelbase’s first UK poll since May put the Tories 8% ahead and Com Res gave them an 11% lead. Panelbase do not provide a regional breakdown so while their figures will count towards the vote share average they will not count towards the regional seat projection, purely because they don’t provide the figures, not because I have anything against the company.
Of the other polls providing the breakdown similar patterns emerged. The broad swing was around 3.5% to the Tories against what happened in May. The south of England (Not Including London) gave a swing to Labour of around 1.5%, this anomaly I have written about before, has to be treated with caution when an area goes the other way to the rest of the country due to issues around sampling such a big Tory lead across the south.
There is good news for UKIP as these polls see their poll of poll average increase by 1.5% and they are doing better than they were at the end on 2015 in with both Com Res and Survation. Clearly the starting gun of the EU Referendum as well as the immigration issues across the EU has helped them somewhat. The Lib Dems on the other hand see no breakthrough, their improvement in local by elections continues to fail to show in the national polling.
In Scotland the SNP are back to their highs averaging over 50% in these polls after a slight decrease in the later part of 2015. The Scottish samples again have the Tories ahead of Labour in a distant second place. This has not materialised in polls for the Holyrood elections where Labour are still in second place. It could be different people voting different ways in different elections, or the Scottish sub samples at Westminster level may for the moment be incorrect due to being much smaller. Both possibilities are valid and there is no clear cut answer as to which is correct. All we know for sure is Westminster polls currently have the Tories second, the Holyrood polls have Labour second, and the SNP are slaughtering both of them.
There is a small bit of comfort for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour, the swing to the Tories in the Midlands was an average of 2.5% to the Conservatives against May in these polls. This is a good deal lower than what we have seen in previous polls and if it becomes a trend may protect Labour against a Tory majority heading north of three figures as this is where Labour still have more seats to lose than elsewhere. The seat projections below are based on current boundaries which are of course, subject to change before 2020, and the figures are in line with most previous polls at the back end of 2015, pointing to a Tory majority between 60 & 80.
MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD
Communicate Research (17/01/2016)
UK Vote Share – Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 16% LD 7% Green 3% – Con lead 11%
Regional Seat Projection
Com Res (17/01/2016) – Con 364 Lab 198 LD 10 SNP 54 Plaid Cymru 4 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18 –
Con Majority 78
UK Vote Share – Con 37.7% Lab 29.3% UKIP 16.6% LD 6.3% Green 2.5% – Con lead 8.4%
Regional Seat Projection
Con 360 Lab 203 LD 7 SNP 57 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18 –
Con Majority 70
UK Vote Share – Con 39% Lab 31% UKIP 174 LD 6% Green 3% – Con lead 8%
The Tory lead on the poll of poll average is up 0.5% from 7.8% to 8.3% and the average majority on the seat projection nudges up from 68 to 70 as a result of these polls. all the current numbers can be found here.