ICM Monthly Poll
Tories lead by 5% with ICM, Projected majority of 68
ICM have released their monthly poll and on the face of it looks not quite so bad for Labour, until that is you drill down into the figures. The headline lead for the Conservative remains at 5% the same as last month. The Labour share of 35% is much better than it has been in other polls, however the raw numbers actually found more 2015 Labour than Conservative voters, meaning a 5% lead for the Tories on this sample, is probably bigger on a sample more representative of how Britain actually voted in May’s General Election.Never the less, we can only ever use the figures we are given and as May showed, an outlier is not always wrong just because it is an outlier.
The regional patterns don’t make good reading for Labour in England. While the rise in the vote share comes as a result of much better figures in Scotland and Wales, with the SNP only on 41% in contrast to Com Res and Survation that had them over 50%. Most of England sees a big swing to the Tories against May, as much as 6% in most regions outside of London and the South. ICM sees a return to particularly dire numbers in the Midlands after Com Res and Survation found numbers not as bad there, this is key to where Labour must improve to stand a chance in 2020.
As a result of the distribution of where Labour have improved and where they have not, the 1% swing implied nationwide to Labour by the 5% Tory lead figure does not translate into seats. Indeed the seat projection sees ICM come back in line with most others pointing to a Tory majority between 60 and 80 (The last ICM poll was slightly lower than that.) In this case the ICM poll has a Tory majority of 68, primarily due to the Midlands but also poor Labour figures in the North and Yorkshire.
With the inclusion of this poll the Tory average lead across all polls is now 8.1% and the poll of polls seat projection sees the projected Tory Majority nudge up by 2 from 68 to 70. All the numbers can be found here. The breakdown for the ICM poll is below.
MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD
ICM Poll (18/01/2016)
Vote Share – Con 40% Lab 35% UKIP 10% LD 6% Green 2% – Con Lead 5%
Regional Seat Projection
Con 359 Lab 208 LD 9 SNP 49 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18 –
Con Overall Majority 68