YouGov Poll 31/01/2016
Tories increase headline lead to 9, Projected Tory Landslide Majority 132
YouGov’s end of January poll has been released and continues to be out of line with other polls with the regional patterns continuing to project a 100+ majority for the Tories where the others are in the region of 60-80. The headline Voting Intention number sees the Conservative lead increasing from 7% in December to 9% now. The poll continued to see the Southern issue emerge with the South (excluding London) seeing a decent swing to Labour when there is a swing to the Tories everywhere else. Particularly damaging to Labour is the 8% swing to the Conservatives in the Midlands against what happened in May, this is where the Conservatives really see their seat numbers rocket. The swings in other regions were well above the average of other pollsters as well. The movement is lower in London, that is in trend with other polls with the Tories only getting a 2% swing against May in the Capital.
UKIP also do very well in this poll on 17% and the regional numbers would see them pick up a gain in Thanet South. The Liberal Democrats continue to show no progress nationally at all. In Scotland Labour did retain second place and this is partly reason the Tory lead is not in double figures. The SNP remain well ahead in Scotland, although this poll has them slightly lower than other pollsters, hence their seat number falls more than is probably really the case. As for the projected majority, it is YouGov’s third in a row projecting 100+ which no other pollster does. With that caveat, it is also a useful reminder of how far Labour could fall if the Corbyn experiment completely collapses, and will continue to give heart to those who dare to suggest quietly, that a Tory Landslide is possible with Labour being led by Jeremy Corbyn. The breakdown is below.
MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD
YouGov Poll (31/01/2016)
UK Voting Intention – Con 39% Lab 30% UKIP 17% LD 6% Green 3% – Con lead 9%
Regional based seat projection
Con 391 Lab 175 LD 9 SNP 51 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18 –
Con Overall majority 132
Another excellent poll for the Conservatives and even if the seat projection is an outlier and exaggerating the position, it is still showing a very healthy position with other polls backing up the fact the Tories remain well ahead at this point. There is no turning point for Labour or the Liberal Democrats, while the EU and migrant crisis are clearly playing well for UKIP. The SNP remain strong and frankly, their Westminster position is not that relevant now as they concentrate on Holyrood, where polls show them doing even better than in the Westminster polls.
The Numbers – The Conservative headline voting intention average lead remains the same at 8.4%, the average projected poll of polls seat projection sees projected the Tory majority up from 70 to 74. All the updated figures can be found here.