Com Res and ICM February Polls
National Westminster polls move further to the Tories
There have been two national polls released in the last few days. While we saw signs of hope for Labour in recent local by-elections, the national picture continues to look very bleak for the red team. The Communicate Research poll gave the Conservatives a 14% headline lead, the breakdown suggests this is exaggerated due to a very strong performance in the poll in Scotland on voting intention against Labour (Although this makes virtually no difference on seats as the SNP remained strong in this poll), on more normal Scottish figures the lead would have been around 11%. Across England the Com Res poll gave a fairly consistent picture of a swing between 2-4% from Labour to Conservative against last May across most regions, with a greater swing seen in Wales. The regional patterns would give the Tories an overall majority of 94.
The ICM has reported lower headline leads than most, their new poll has the Tories headline lead at 7%, up from 5% in January. Despite the discrepancy the trend is going the same way with the Tories increasing their lead. The regional patterns with ICM were a bit all over the place, with a huge swing to the Tories in Wales, Labour doing far better in the North than we have seen in other polls and the SNP down to 38% in Scotland. Com Res had the SNP on 51% retaining all it’s 56 seats, ICM would have the SNP down to 44 seats. It’s pretty clear the former is more credible on current trends. There is little to report regarding UKIP and the Lib Dems. UKIP continue to hold up OK and the Lib Dems continue to make no breakthrough in either poll.
Due to the more wild anomalies on one hand the ICM seat projection should be treated with a touch of caution as it sees both sides gain seats that are highly unlikely in reality, on the other hand it gives the Tories an overall majority of 80, which is almost in line with the average, so perhaps the wild moves even themselves out into something reasonably credible afterall, with the exception of the SNP figure of course.
MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD
Com Res (13/02/2016)
Voting Intention – Con 41% Lab 27% UKIP 15% LD 9% Green 3% – Con lead 14%
Regional Seat Projection
Con 372 Lab 198 LD 8 SNP 56 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18 –
Con Overall Majority 94
Voting Intention – Con 39% Lab 32% UKIP 11% LD 7% Green 4% – Con Lead 7%
Regional Seat Projection
Con 365 Lab 209 LD 8 SNP 44 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18 –
Con Overall Majority 80
These two polls continue to suggest if there is no change of Labour leader, there is only one winner in 2020. After issues with tax credits, Tory splits emerging over the EU Referendum and the dispute around Junior Doctors, it still appears Labour have made no inroads at all, indeed if anything are further away from power than they were at the start of 2016. As for the Tories, they appear to have free reign to split for the EU Referendum without any great consequence due to the weakness of the opposition, a luxury few could have predicted.
The Tories average poll of polls lead increases from 8.4% to 9% over Labour. The poll of poll seat projection nudges up from 74 to 78. All the latest numbers can be found here.