US Republican election
Trump’s 1237 schedule
The race for the nominations in the US Presidential race is coming to it’s crucial stage. On the Democrat side, while Bernie Sanders has put up more of a fight than most expected, Hilary Clinton is still easily on course to win. The Republican race could get more complicated. It is clear that Donald Trump is likely to win more delegates than the other rivals still in the race, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich.
However winning most delegates is not enough, he needs a majority of 1237 delegates to be sure of the nomination, otherwise the Convention at which the nominee is determined will become contested and it s unlikely the Republican establishment not not come up with something to get the other delegates to gang up to try and stop Trump if he does not have the 1237.
Next Tuesday there are big contests in Ohio, John Kasich’s home state and in Florida where Marco Rubio is the senator. If Trump wins those, he is well on course for the numbers he needs, if not, his margin of error is much smaller. Below I set out the remaining contests and what Trump would need to do to get to 1237 if he loses both. And on the flip side, it also shows what those he want to stop him need to do to achieve that. The schedule would allow Trump to get to exactly 1237, so if he gets more he is ahead of schedule and less than those who oppose him are on course to stop him. I’ve tried to pick the most likely states based on current polling and previous result patterns. It does not mean Trump is not favourite to win in any of the states I have put him down to lose, but is merely designed to show the minimum he needs.
How Trump Gets to exactly 1237
Current Delegates (464)
Winner Takes All elections
Wins – Illinois (69) Missouri (52) Ariona (58) New York (95) Delaware (16), Maryland (38) Pennsylvania (71) California (172) New Jersey (51) Indiana (57)
Wins – North Carolina (40) Oregan (14) Washington (22)
Loses but picks up delegates – New Mexico (8) West Virginia (7) Rhode Island (3)
This assumes he picks up no delegates in the following (So anything picked up is a bonus)
Winner Takes All Elections (Delegates up for grabs in brackets)
Ohio (66) Florida (99) Utah (66) Nebraska (36) Montana (27) Wisconsin (42) South Dakota (29) Connecticut (28)
Northern Mariana Islands (9) American Samoa (6)