Moon Of Liberty Elections – By Elections 21/07/2015

WAP

Local Council By Elections

11 By Elections on Thursday 21st July 2016

11 by elections took place on Thursday and with the Conservatives defending 7 of them it could have been a difficult night. Ironically the one they lost was one of the least likely on paper with the Lib Dems scoring a superb victory in Northampton from 3rd place last time. The Tories defended the other six seats however with strong vote share with impressive holds against the Lib Dems in Exmouth, East Devon and retaining a real marginal in Lancashire against Labout where Labour only needed a 2.3% swing to gain and failed to do so.

Labour held their two strongholds in London and Plaid Cymru saw off the Lab challenge in Gwynedd easily. UKIP were the big losers, while they were not competitive in any of the by elections where they stood, they were consistently down 5-7% on their General Election day performance and have fallen below 8% on the national projected share for the first time since I began producing these figures. Thursday’s results see the Conservatives lead over Labour on the projected share increase from 1.6% to 2%. All the current election/polling figures can be found here

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Warlingham West  (Tandridge)Con 367 LD 218 UKIP 64Con Hold – Swing (May 2016) Con-LD 6.6%

Waunfawr (Gwynedd) Plaid Cymru 358 Lab 114Plaid Cymru Hold – Swing n/a – Plaid vote up 18.6% on May 2012

Hackney Central (Hackney)Lab 1354 Green 178 LD 113 Con 101 Ind 55Lab Hold – Swing (May 2014) Green-Lab 12.1%

Bellingham (Lewisham)Lab 940 Con 302 LD 180 People Before Profit 129 UKIP 104Lab Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-Con 1.4%

Southcote (Reading)Lab 934 Con 381 LD 77 Green 66Lab Hold – Swing (May 2016) Lab- Con 0.5%

Westone (Northampton)LD 583 Con 319 Lab 270 LD GAIN FROM CON – Swing (May 2015) Con-LD 32.6% – LD 3rd-1st Lab 2nd-3rd (Down 7%)

Honiton ST Michaels (East Devon)Con 362 E Dev Ind 211 Lab 197 UKIP 140Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-E Dev Ind 1.5%

Balderton South (Newark & Sherwood)Con 483 LD 103Con Hold – Swing n/a – Con vote up 26.4% from May 2015

Exmouth Littleham (East Devon)Con 547 LD 467 Lab 193Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-LD 0.6%

Chorley Rural North (Lancashire)Con 1144 Lab 1042 UKIP 303 LD 125Con Hold – Swing (May 2013) Lab-Con 0.3%

Great Wyrley Town (S Staffs)Con 357 Lab 230 UKIP 114Con Hold Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 2%

UK Projected share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought)

Con 32.7% Lab 30.7% LD 18.1% UKIP 7.6% Green 4.4% SNP 4.4%Con Lead 2%

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