Tim Kaine, a smart VP Pick for Hilary Clinton
On face value it looks like Donald Trump has had a bounce in the polls from last weeks Republican Convention. However these are national polls, what actually matter is the state by state races and how that effects the electoral map. The race to 270 electoral college delegates is what matters, not the national share of the vote.
Given what occurred in 2012, the logical route for the Republican’s to get to 270 would be to hold all the Romney states and win Florida, Ohio, Virginia plus one smaller state (Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire the most likely) to achieve the requirement. While Florida and Ohio are, as ever, close and the polls show it, the evidence is Virginia is a tougher ask. Without Virginia the other route to 270 would be to win Pennsylvania, a state the Republicans have not won since 1988.
However the appeal of Donald Trump may lend itself to this challenge rather better due to the high blue collar white vote in the state being higher than elsewhere. The polls in Pennsylvania are much closer that expected. Sufficient to offer Trump a second route to 270. This is why the pick of Tim Kaine as Hilary Clinton’s running mate is a smart one. He is the senator for Virginia and this on top of the apparent advantage the Democrats already have in Virginia may put the state totally out of reach for Trump.If this proves the case it closes off one of the two routes for Trump to get to the required 270 delegates. It means he would have to win Pennsylvania (Or Michigan, which Trump thinks is winnable, but the polls have not shown a shred of evidence to back up as yet)
As a result Trump may be left with only one path to victory, reliant on winning a state the Republicans have failed to take for almost 30 years. He is also hampered further by the fact three states Romney won, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia also look vulnerable.This means he will have to shore up these states, and win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Any loss of any of these states would hand Hilary Clinton The White House. That’s why Hilary’s pick is smart, it may just narrow Trump’s path to a six state must take all scenario including being reliant on delivering a state the Republicans have not won for nearly 30 years.