YouGov – Con lead by 12%
Today’s YouGov poll again like ICM yesterday sees the Conservatives in a double digit lead against Labour on the headline figure. The slightly better news for Labour was the much of this with YouGov is down to a collapse in Scotland (11%) which ICM did not see, as a result the seat projection does not look as bad as they only has one seat to lose in Scotland, and the swings elsewhere were not quite as bad as with ICM.
A big factor was that the swing in the midlands was only 2.5% where Labour still have the most to lose. As a result the losses to the Conservatives would be kept to losing just 26 seats to the Tories on these figures (as well as their one in Scotland to the SNP.) The SNP would also gain Orkney & Shetland from the Lib Dems but lose Roxburgh & Berwickshire to the Tories. This would still see a comfortable Tory majority of 66, but nowhere near the landslide projected by the ICM poll.
The changes see the Tories increase their poll of polls headline lead to 6.9%, but the poll of polls seat projection comes down slightly from a Tory majority of 66 to a Tory majority of 62. All the current numbers can be found here. The breakdown of this YouGov poll is below.
MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD
Con 40% Lab 28% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 12%
Con 358 Lab 205 LD 7 SNP 57 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18 –
Con majority 66