YouGov – Con lead by 14% & tory projected majority 102
The latest Yougov poll makes increasingly dire reading for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. The Conservative lead moves up to 14% in line with the most recent ICM poll giving the Tories 1 16% lead. Where the last Yougov poll provided some respite for Labour, this one does not. The swing to the Tories was roughly 5% across the board with the exception of the South where it was 2% and 3,5% in London, where the poll shows an improvement for the Lib Dems, something to watch to see if it becomes a trend.
The consistency of the swing outside of the south means the position could actually be worse for Labour due to difficulties of modelling such a huge starting Tory lead in the south in a poll, had the South matched the 5% swing elsewhere outside of London, lead could have reached as high as 18%.The poll shows the SNP on 50% in Scotland with Labour well behind the Tories there too.
The regional breakdown means YouGov also joins ICM in projecting a majority of over 100 (102 in this case). The Changes mean the Tories increase their average lead on the headline intention figures to 7.6% over Labour, and the polls of polls projected majority goes up to 68. The latest figures can be found here. The breakdown of this poll is below.
MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD
Con 42% Lab 28% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 14%
Regional Based Seat Projection
Con 376 Lab 286 LD 9 SNP 56 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18 –
Con majority 102