Moon Of Liberty Polling – YouGov



YouGov – Con lead by 14% & tory projected majority 102

The latest Yougov poll makes increasingly dire reading for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. The Conservative lead moves up to 14% in line with the most recent ICM poll giving the Tories 1 16% lead. Where the last Yougov poll provided some respite for Labour, this one does not. The swing to the Tories was roughly 5% across the board with the exception of the South where it was 2% and 3,5% in London, where the poll shows an improvement for the Lib Dems, something to watch to see if it becomes a trend.

The consistency of the swing outside of the south means the position could actually be worse for Labour due to difficulties of modelling such a huge starting Tory lead in the south in a poll, had the South matched the 5% swing elsewhere outside of London, lead could have reached as high as 18%.The poll shows the SNP on 50% in Scotland with Labour well behind the Tories there too.

The regional breakdown means YouGov also joins ICM in projecting a majority of over 100 (102 in this case). The Changes mean the Tories increase their average lead on the headline intention figures to 7.6% over Labour, and the polls of polls projected majority goes up to 68. The latest figures can be found here. The breakdown of this poll is below.




YouGov (04/08/2016)

Voting Intention

Con 42% Lab 28% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 14%

Regional Based Seat Projection

Con 376 Lab 286 LD 9 SNP 56 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 102


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