Moon Of Liberty Polling – Four polls to update

WAP

Polling

Theresa May remains in control

With four National opinion polls in the last two weeks Theresa May remains in total control and her honeymoon period continues as Labour’s problems show no real signs of turning in the polls. Over the four polls the Conservatives have an average advantage of over 10% with only YouGov recording a single digit Conservative lead. This also shows in the seat projections with ICM, TNS & Ipsos-Mori producing regional projections of a Tory Majority in the 90’s in contrast to the majority of 36 with YouGov.

The three polls with double digit leads suggests the North is the biggest problem. Both in the North-East and North-West reduced support for Labour appears to be a product of the post Brexit scenario where many Labour heartlands voted against the advice of most Labour politicians. The red team could be losing both ways as there also appear to be the stirrings of Lib Dem improvement in London at Labour’s expense. Their pro-EU stance may be losing them support in the North, while their perceived loop warm support for the EU may be seeing them begin to lose some ground in London too, a double edged sword.

In Scotland there are no signs of SNP support slowing down or any respite for Labour. The SNP are on over 48% on average across the four polls, with the Tories very definitely now ahead of Labour there too. regardless of whether you believe YouGov, the other three, or somewhere in the middle is the real position, it is very clear that unless they are all totally wrong, the Tories remain in an extraordinary position six years into Government.The Tory lead on the Average Poll of polls goes up to 7.8% and the average seat projections would give the Tories a slightly reduced majoirty of 62 against 66 before these polls, due to YouGov and the last ICM poll predicting a 100+ majority landslide. Al the latest numbers can be found here

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori (17/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 45% Lab 34% LD 7% UKIP 6% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 371 Lab 194 LD 6 SNP 56 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 94

ICM (16/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 40% Lab 28% UKIP 14% LD 8% Green 4% – Con Lead 12%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 374 Lab 190 LD 7 SNP 54 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority 98

YouGov (11/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 38% Lab 31% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 7%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 343 Lab 219 LD 9 SNP 57 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 36

TNS (11/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 39% Lab 26% UKIP 14% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 13%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 370 Lab 196 LD 9 SNP 53 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 90

 

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