1st 2017 poll gives the Tories a 15% lead
The first poll from YouGov of 2017 gives the Conservatives a poll lead of 15%, although both Labour and the Tories are down on YouGov’s last poll with the Lib Dems slightly up and continuing their recovery since the Richmond Park by election. UKIP are also up 2% to 14% which keeps them ahead of the Lib Dems.
In Scotland the SNP score 52% and continue to be well in the lead but the Conservatives are now well clear of Labour in second north of the border. The regional breakdown is particularly bad for Labour in the north where the Tories score a huge 8% swing against May 2015. The LD’s are up to 15% in the south outside of London which is the basis of their revival. London continues to be Labour’s best region.
This is the first poll I have calculated on what are the projected new boundaries and it gives the Tories a majority of 98. The details are below. As the seat method is new these figures are the averages at the moment. The averages page will be updated as we get new polling information I can calculate on the new boundaries but at present, old comparisons are irrelevant.