Moon Of Liberty Polling – ICM Con lead by 14% & Cardiff Uni Welsh Poll



Conservative’s keep 14% lead in first ICM 2017 poll

ICM have released the first poll of 2017 with fieldwork having been done in the New Year and the Conservatives maintain a 14% lead over Labour with the Lib Dems, who had a post Richmond by election bounce last time, down 2% back into single figures. Despite a similar lead over Labour to the YouGov poll the regional breakdown sees a bigger meltdown in the North West and in Yorkshire for Labour, which would see them lose more seats handing the Tories a bigger majority of 142. The SNP are on 42% in Scotland, considerably less than YouGov recorded.It means the Tory average lead is 14.5% and the projected Tory majority increases to 120. All the up to date figures can be found here

Cardiff University Welsh Poll

Cardiff University have released a Wales only poll. The Westminster voting intention sees Labour lead by 5% in Wales, they won by 10 at the 2015 General Election so the move to the Conservatives would see the Tories gain four seats that are notionally Labour on the new boundaries.Full details including Welsh Assembly polling can be found at the Cardiff University website here




ICM Poll (09/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 42% Lab 28% UKIP 12% LD 9% Green 4% – Con Lead 14%

Regional Breakdown Seat Projection

YouGov (01/01/2017) – Con 371 Lab 165 LD 7 SNP45 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 142

Cardiff University Poll (Wales Only)

Westminster Voting Intention

Lab 33% Con 28% UKIP 13% Plaid Cymru 13% LD 9%Labour lead 5%

Represents a swing of 2.5% from Lab to Con in Wales against May 2015



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