Moon Of Liberty Polling – Survation & Opinium

WAP

Opinium & Survation show a similar picture

Opinion polls have been released over the weekend by Survation and Opinium. Both show a similar picture on the voting intention. Opinium has the Conservative Party 8% ahead of Labour with Survation showing 10%. The reason for the lower leads than we have recently seen with YouGov and ICM is also similar in both have Labour in a better position in Scotland, indeed Survaton shows Labour ahead of the Tories in Scotland, sadly for Labour however, due to continued SNP strength, this is worth little in terms of seats.

Opinium only breaks down England, Scotland and Wales therefore I can not produce a seat projection like for like against the others as this requires regional English breakdown which Opinium do not provide. Survation shows a similar issue to ICM and YouGov in collapsing Labour support in the North and Yorkshire. As a result despite showing a 5% lower lead than the recent YouGov poll the Tories projected majority is almost identical (98 against 96 for YouGov.)

The changes reduce the Tories voting Intention average lead to 11.7% and the average projected Tory majority of all latest polls within the last three months (Based on regional breakdowns reduces from 120 to 112. This figure is for the new projected boundaries based on the boundary commission’s initial proposals. All the up to date figures can be found here 

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Opinium Poll (13/01/2017)

Voting Intention

 Con 38% Lab 30% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 3% – Con lead 8%

Survation Poll (14/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 39% Lab 29% UKIP 13% LD 10% Green 2% – Con lead 10%

Regional Seat Projection

Con 349 Lab 176 LD 5 SNP48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 98

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