ICM Poll 23/01/2017
New record low seat projection for Labour as position in the North gets worse
ICM’s new poll not only confirms recent trends suggesting a Tory majority of 100 plus but records a record low seat projection for Labour of just 145, the first time it has dipped below 150. On Voting intention the Tory share stays steady but the lead is up 2% due to Labour falling to 28% with slight 1% increases for the Lib Dems and UKIP. Labour’s big problem is their position in the North of England where the swing against the last General Election was 11.5%. In Yorkshire it was 8%. These regions under the new boundaries have the most seats for Labour to lose and it is there they are being hit the hardest.
The seat projection would give the Tories a majority of 142, the highest recorded since I began calculating on the new boundaries. While this may prove to be a one off, it suggests polling margin of error has shifted in the Tory direction again. Even if this is the new outlier, it shifts the averages further away from Labour and makes the mountain they already had to climb even bigger. It should also be said for many who are involved in or know about polling, ICM one of if not the most respected pollster.
The current Tory average voting intention lead moves up to 12.6% and their average seat projected majority is up from 124 to 128 on the back of this poll.All the up to date figures can be found here.
MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD
ICM Poll (23/01/2017)
Con 42% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 10% Green 5% – Con lead 16%
Regional Based Seat Projection
Con 377 Lab 145 LD 8 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18
Con Majority of 142