Moon Of Liberty Elections – By Elections 26-28 July 2016

WAP

Local Council By-Elections

Two gains for improving Lib Dems

At local level the Lib Dems can well and truly trumpet their fightback at the moment. They had another excellent week this week making two gains and with vote share increases that has pushed their average projected share above 20% for the the first time since the heady days of Cleggmania in 2015.

The Conservatives share has suffered slightly at the hands of this Lib Dem rise also losing a seat in Cornwall. However the made progress against the Lib Dems in Carshalton and held on against a strong Lib Dem challenge in East Hampshire.The only Conservative verses Labour head to head was in Droitwich where the Tories not only held on but scored a strong swing outperforming their General Election performance confirming recent national opinion polls when it comes to going head to head with Labour.

As for the red team, they were hit everywhere including failing to put up a candidate to defend their seat in Totnes after the meeting to select a candidate apparently ending in farce according to reports. Labour’s national difficulties appear to be showing through in local contests where, Harringey apart, they were hammered with their vote share falling everywhere else this week, including the Droitwich result against the Tories and the Newport result against the Lib Dems, both in normal times you would expect an opposition to be look to be gaining. Both began as marginals and Labour are now even further away than they were from these seats.

The results mean the Tories lead over Labour in projected vote share is up from 2% to 3.7% despite the Tory vote falling a touch due to the Lib Dem rise.This shows the at local level as at national level, it is Labour who are struggling most. All the current numbers/polling etc can be found here. This weeks full results are below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Local By Elections 26-28 July 2016

By Election 26/07/2016

The Hangers & Forest (E Hampshire)Con 236 LD 227 Justice Party 41 Lab 17Con Hold – Swing n/a as no LD last time.

By Election 27/07/2016

Totnes (South Hams)LD 812 Green 499 Ind 391 Con 197 LD GAIN FROM LAB – Swing n/a as Lab did not defend the seat with a Candidate.

By Elections 28/07/2016

Noolyn & Goonhavern (Cornwall)LD 247 Con 243 Ind 163 Mebyon Kernow 161 Lab 77 Ind 75 Ind 54LD GAIN FROM CON – Swing n/a as no LD candidate last time

Haringey (Harringay)Lab 1054 LD 765 Green 325 Con 99 UKIP 36Lab Hold – Swing (May 2014) Zero between Lab & LD

ST Julian’s (Newport)LD 948 Lab 432 UKIP 156 Con 135 Plaid Cymru 71 Green 25 LD Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-LD 15.9%

Carshalton Central (Sutton)LD 1250 Con 1061 Green 211 Lab 176 CPA 29LD Hold – Swing (May 2014) LD-Con 3.2%

Droitwich West (Wychavon)Con 281 Lab 161 UKIP 132 LD 97Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 6.4%

Projected national UK share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought by each party)

Con 31.3% Lab 27.6% LD 20.3% UKIP 8.4% SNP 4.4% Green 5.1% – Con lead 3.7%

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Moon Elections – Launceston Central by-election

WAP

Elections

Launceston Central by Election

Lib Dems hold on to safe seat with reduced majority

Once again there was only one by election this week. Last we were in the far north of England in Carlisle, this week it is to the deep south-west in Cornwall. The seat is a bit of a rarity these days, a safe Lib Dem seat. Surprisingly Labour did not stand, leaving the Conservatives to try and challenge in a seat the Lib Dems were never going to lose.

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Election 14/01/2016

Launceston Central (Cornwall) – LD 515 Con 226 Green 65 Christian Alliance 12LD Hold – Swing (From May 2013) LD-Con 9.1%

National UK Projected Share (Based on last 20 by elections fought)

Con 36.4% Lab 28.8% LD 17.6% UKIP 9% SNP 3.9% Green 2.3%

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Conclusion – Both the Lib Dems and the Tories will be happy. The Lib Dems safely hold the seat and were in no danger of losing it and will use the big win as part of their ‘fightback’ narrative. The Tories have earned a creditable swing to close the gap in second place with their vote share increasing by 10% on 2013 and for future contests Labour will be damaged by not standing and having to start again from scratch.

On the projected vote share, the Tories lead over Labour increases from 7.4% last week to 7.6% as a result of this by election.

 

Moon Elections – Botcherby by election – 07th Jan 2016

WAP

Local by Elections

Botcherby on Carlisle

Labour lose council seat in Carlisle

There was just one by election last night to kick off 2016 made all the more interesting by the fact it was located in Carlisle, a key 2020 Westminster marginal, and in an area of Carlisle that had been affected by the flooding and had been visited by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. The seat was a Labour defence won on General Election day, Jeremy’s visit obviously did not do the trick.

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD


 

Local by elections – 07/01/2016

Botcherby (Carlisle) Ind 381 Lab 250 Con 115 Ind GAIN from Lab – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Ind 10.7%

National Projected share (Based on last 20 local by elections)

Con 36.1% Lab 28.8% LD 18.1% UKIP 8.9% SNP 3.9% Green 2.3%


 

Conclusion

Labour – another failure for Labour, albeit in this case to an Independent, in a council seat in a Westminster marginal. The Labour share of the vote was also up only 0.4%. 2016 starts in the same dismal way as 2015 for the opposition.

Conservative – The Tory vote fell as well by 5%, as they were squeezed allowing the Independent candidate to win. As a result the Tories have excuses for the fall, and even on these figures the Westminster seat of Carlisle would stay blue assuming the Tory and Labour totals were consistent across the constituency. As a one off the Tories will not be too concerned as they were not competitive in terms of winning the council seat, but will be keen to ensure it does not become a trend.

The Figures – The result means the Tory lead on the National projected share over Labour falls slightly from 7.7% to 7.3%

Numbers Round up – By Elections 26th November

WAP

An array of nine by elections took place last night. The first result looked good for Labour as they gained a seat in Essex from the Tories. However it then got worse, they failed against the Tories in Lancaster with a pro Tory swing against General election day, failed in Ashfield despite two independents splitting the vote in two seperate contests, failed in Newport where the same thing happened, and were easily beaten in two marginal seats in Scotland by the SNP where Labour had won on 1st preferences in 2012. By the end, what started like being a night with some electoral respite for the struggling Labour leadership, ended up being another night of overall misery.

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Elections 26/11/2015

Rochford (Rochford) – Lab 332 Con 328 UKIP 250 LD 114Lab GAIN From Con – Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 4.9%

Dunfirmline North (Fife) SNP 1056 Lab 719 Con 304 LD 230 Green 63 UKIP 58SNP Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 15.3%

Rosyth (Fife) SNP 1214 Lab 926 Con 245 LD 97 UKIP 88 Ind 66 Green 51SNP Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 11.3%

Pwilheli South (Gwynedd) Ind 269 Plaid Cymru 168 Ind 106 Llais Gwynedd 49Ind GAIN from Llais Gwynedd – Swing n/a

Bettws (Newport) Ind/Cleverly 336 Lab 294 Ind/Jordan 275 Con 114 Green 29 LD 7Ind Hold – Swing (May 2012) Ind-Lab 4.4%

Selston (Ashfield) Selston Ind 1180 Ind 294 Lab 172 UKIP 77 Con 52Selston Ind Hold – Swing (May 2015) Sel Ind -Ind 13.4%

Selston (Notts CC) Selston Ind 2054 Ind 794 Lab 355 UKIP 161 Con 103Selston Ind Hold – Swing (May 2013) Lab-Selston Ind 13%

Carnforth & Millhead (Lancaster) Con 1238 Lab 981 Green 242Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 4.8%

Salisbury ST Edmund & Millford (Wiltshire) Con 425 LD 262 Lab 232 Green 215 Ind 45Con GAIN from LD – Swing (May 2013) LD-Con 16.9%

Projected National Share (Based on the last 20 by elections fought by each party)

Con 34.1% Lab 28.5% LD 17.7% UKIP 10.1% SNP 4.5% Green 2.9%

Conclusion by Party

Conservatives – Rochford will put a cloud on an otherwise good night. They brushed aside the Labour challenge in Lancaster in a key Westminster marginal seat, and got a big gain against the Lib Dems in Wiltshire. The 5.6% lead over Labour on the projected share is also the biggest for some time. The Tory projected share across the by elections they fought this Thursday averaged over 36%, so there is scope to go higher if they can continue as they are and avoid too many results like Rochford.

Labour – Rochford is the one off they will rightly play for all it is worth. It is a good result, but they did not have any others last night. Their vote share projection has been going down noticeably in the last couple of weeks as well, in line with their struggles at national level. Next weeks Parliamentary by election in a seat they should win very easily, will be very interesting indeed.

Lib Dem – This is their worst week for a while and their defeat in Wiltshire is obviously the most notable aspect of this week for them, but they did not really rebuild a vote anywhere else where not competitive either this week. They will hope this is a blip rather than the start of a trend.

SNP – Not much to say, their victories over Labour suggest they are on course for gains from Labour at the Hollyrood elections, and on course to win big yet again.

Plaid Cymru – After they took a seat from Llais Gwynedd last week on a huge swing, their failure to beat an Independent and do the same this week is a poor result for Plaid, yet typical of the unpredictability of Gwynedd politics.

Numbers Update – by elections & two polls

WAP

By Elections

This week saw seven local by elections. The main winners were the Conservatives with 3 gains, including one from Labour in a seat the Tories had never won before, they also had a spectacular victory in Epsom where the Tories finished 5th in 2013, but won this week.

Local By Elections 19/11/2015

Watton (Norfolk) Con 822 Ind 793 Lab 105 Green 81Con GAIN from UKIP – Swing n/a as no UKIP candidate.

South Smallburgh (Norfolk) LD 1383 Con 697 UKIP 219 Lab 103 Green 52LD Hold – Swing (May 2013) Con-LD 13.1%

Llanaelhaearn (Gywnedd) Plaid Cymru 200 Llais Gwynedd 112 Ind 99Plaid Cymru GAIN from Llais Gwynedd – Swing (May 2012) LG-PC 29.7%

Dewi (Gwynedd) PC 189 Lab 110 LD 19PC Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-PC 1%

Kidwelly (Carmarthenshire) Lab 288 PC 248 Ind 177 People 1st 58 Con 53 Ind 28Lab Hold – Swing n/a as no PC candidate last time.

Aylesford Green (Ashford) Con 110 UKIP 109 Lab 106 Ind 92 LD 42 Green 10Con GAIN from Lab – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 5.5%

Epsom West (Surrey) Con 619 Resident Association 591 LD 588 Lab 578 UKIP 168 Green 58Con GAIN from LD – Swing (May 2013) LD-Con 8.1%, Con were 5th in 2013.

Projected Nation share (Based on last 20 local by elections fought)

Con 33% Lab 28.6% LD 19.3% UKIP 10.1% SNP 4.3% Green 2.8%

Opinion Polls

ICM and Ipsos-Mori have released their October voting intention polls. Both see increased Conservative leads and both regionally project a healthy Conservative Majority. In line with what we are seeing in the by elections with the Tories in control where it matters and Labour continuing to do badly, especially in the Midlands where most of the key seats are. The Liberal Democrats will be disappointed to see there is still no breakthrough in the national polls considering their improved performance at local level.

ICM 17/11/2015

Voting Intention UK – Con 39% Lab 33% UKIP 12% LD 7% Green 4%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 353 Lab 210 LD 6 SNP 58 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18Con Majority 56

Ipsos-Mori 19/11/2015

Voting Intention UK – Con 41% Lab 34% LD 7% UKIP 7% Green 4%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 358 Lab 206 LD 6 SNP 58 Plaid Cymru 2 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18Con Majority 66

Conclusion by party

Conservative – An excellent set of number for the Tories, 3 gains in the by elections and still well ahead in the polls and seat projections where it matters. David Cameron remain in complete control of the UK political scene right now.

Labour – This is Labour’s worst week for sometime. With terrorism in the headlines, Jeremy Corbyn appears particularly weak when anything of that nature comes up. I have always said Corbyn cannot win a General Election, I have seen nothing to come even close to changing my mind.

Lib Dems – Another decent week locally, a good result in Norfolk, although a poor result losing in Epsom in Surrey. Their poll ratings remain at the same low level they got in May too. Mixed news for the Lib Dems but at least at local level the pointers are to some decent results in May 2016.

UKIP – Struggling to find an identity post May, UKIP’s problem is they are not competing where they should be. The Mori poll has them down on 7% nationally in line with evidence they have fallen back since May. The Parliamentary by-election in Oldham West will be a big test of where UKIP are, it is a by election they should be competing in, current trends suggest they will fall well short.

SNP – No local elections this week but Scottish polling suggests they are still on course to match or better their performance last May in the Scottish Parliament elections. Doing so will mean further advances as the SNP got 45% in the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, so they would be up by a further 5% at least if they repeat their General Election performance. Bad news for Labour who would be the main losers.

Plaid Cymru – Plaid are another big warning for Labour. They have done well in Welsh local elections recently, the potential for them to score some upsets at Labour’s expense in the Welsh Assembly elections looks to be on the increase. Plaid are the wild card that could really spoil Jeremy Corbyn’s night next May, as holding Wales is something Labour are banking on.

Numbers Round up – by-elections & YouGov

WAP

By Elections

There were several by elections on Thursday evening. Most of them in Scotland. There was only one in England where Labour got their first gain in a Tory-Lab contest since Jeremy Corbyn was elected. The context of the gain however is that it is a multi member ward where the Tory stood down, but the other seats were won by Labour and Labour had most votes on General Election day, so oddly Labour could get this gain by standing still. They did a bit better than that with a 2.5% swing. That change in a hypothetical across the whole country would still see the Tories ahead on votes and seats, never the less, it is a win for Jeremy Corbyn that will be welcome in the south of England where for the moment the rot stops with this result, something Labour will hope is the start of better things to come.

In Scotland the picture was less rosy for Labour. The SNP only lost in one seat and that was to an Independent in Moray. The SNP won everywhere else with the Tory vote up and Labour vote down almost everywhere (Linlithgow is the exception.) The biggest failure is in Glenrothes West, before May Glenrothes was one of Labour’s safest Westminster seats seats, they only needed a 0.5% swing here to get this ward back and they failed very badly. This shows Labour are making no serious progress in Scotland as the SNP march on.

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Elections 01/10/2015

Grimsbury & Castle (Cherwell) Lab 781 Con 661 UKIP 150 LD 73 Green 72 – Lab gain from Con- Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 2.6%

Irvine Valley (E Ayrshire) 1st Pref SNP 1797 Con 865 Lab 860 Green 88 – SNP Hold on 2nd rnd – Swing (May 2012) SNP-Con 0.2% – Con beat Lab into 2nd

Glenrothes W & Kinglassie (Fife) SNP 2235 Lab 1207 Con 234 Green 113 – SNP Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 12.9%

Stirling East (Stirling) – SNP 1311 Lab 1094 Con 343 Green 152 – SNP Hold on 3rd Round – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 9.4%

Heldon & Laitch (Moray) Ind 1323 SNP 1003 Con 703 Green 192 – Ind Gain from SNP in round 3 – Swing n/a

Linlithgow (West Lothian) – SNP 2049 Lab 1088 Con 973 Green 282 Ind 230 LD 133 – SNP Hold on Round 4 – Swing (May 2012) SNP-Lab 0.6% – :Lab beat Con into 3rd

Midsocket & Rosemount (Aberdeen) SNP 1168 Con 672 Lab 605 LD 238 Green 178 – SNP Gain from Con on 4th round – Swing (May 2012) SNP-Con 4% – Con beat Lab into 3rd

George Street & Harbour (Aberdeen) SNP 961 Lab 490 Con 195 Green 136 LD 96 – SNP hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 11%

YouGov Poll

It was like the old days as YouGov released their latest poll at 10pm last night (They released one at 10pm daily for some time between 2010-2015). The Tory lead UK wide is 6% on this poll down from 8% last week. However the regional breakdowns as in most polls make for more positive reading for the Tories and less so for Labour. The old Southern issue raises it’s head with the Tories only 14% ahead in the south, A 6.5% swing to Labour since May. Every other region including Wales goes the other way and leads to an increased lead on the seat projection, despite little change on the VI headline. The poll also sees the Tories ahead of Labour in Scotland, this is fast becoming a consistant pattern on the Scottish sub samples, and given the Tories improvement in the by elections in Scotland last night too, can no longer be ignored or assumed to be an outlier. UKIP are also up to 17%, the migrant crisis is certainly helping them at the moment and has given them an identity post May’s general election.

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

YouGov 01/10/2015

Voting Intention UK Wide – Con 37% Lab 31% UKIP 17% LD 7% Green 2%

Voting Intention Scotland – SNP 49% Con 26% Lab 17% Others 12%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 354 Lab 211 SNP 54 LD 8 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 NI 18Con majority 58

Conclusion

Conservative – Will be dissappointed with the Cherwell result as it shows they will not going winning all the Labour Vs Conservative battles that come up in the future as they have been, but given the context it is not cause for great concern and the poll is in line with others showing them still very much ahead. They will be delighted with what happened in Scotland where their vote was up in all but one ward and they beat Labour into second place in two of the wards. Confidence going into the Hollyrood election must be growing that they can make some good gains under Ruth Davidson.

Labour – Will of course be pleased to finally have a victory due to in their gain in Cherwell which they will try and present as proof they can win on the south of England. In Scotland however, the position looks as dire as it ever did. The Glenrothes result particularly shows the scale of the problem, a seat until the SNP surge, they would never be losing in any circumstances is now on paper a very safe SNP seat.

SNP – Nicola Sturgeon marches on much as before. The only concern will be the Moray result where the Tory vote was up and a strong Independent vote saw the SNP beaten. Is their a risk as they march to victory across Scotland in areas they traditionally have not won, they are taking their own traditional areas for granted? Moray of course was an SNP westminster seat long before the SNP surge, yet still voted No in the Indy referendum.

By Election round up

WAP

There were five by elections this Thursday and in line with recent polls, it sees the Conservatives comprehensively in command in battles with Labour. The only slight disappointment for the Tories will be a light decrease in their vote in Pontefract North where UKIP scored a small swing against Labour in a safe Labour seat. Elsewhere, in East Anglia and on both sides of the Midlands, The Tories vote rose with universal swing to the Tories against Labour to hold seats with bigger majorities than before. Two of these were last fought on General election day, thus the Tories are doing better and Labour worse than in May.

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Elections 24/09/2015

Pontefract N (Wakefield) – Lab 909 UKIP 453 Con 299 Yorkshire 1st 123 LD 86 TUSC 24Lab Hold – Swing from May 2015 Lab-UKIP 2%

Blakebrook & South Habberley (Wyre Forest) – Con 595 UKIP 252 Lab 247 Green 173 HC 167 LD 54Con Hold – Swing from May 2015 Ukip-Con 7%

Loddon (Norfolk CC) Con 1094 Lab 357 LD 235 UKIP 233 Con Hold – Swing from May 2013 Lab-Con 6%

Chedgrave & Thurton (S Norfolk) Con 260 Lab 93 LD 69 UKIP 64 – Con Hold — Swing from May 2015 – :Lab-Con 4%

Derwent Valley (Derbyshire CC) Con 1107 Lab 466 LD 314 UKIP 285Con Hold – Swing from May 2015 Lab-Con 5%

Projected National Share (Based on last 20 by elections fought) Con 35.2% Lab 31.1% LD 17.4% UKIP 9% Green 3.3%

Conclusion

Conservative – An excellent night defending their four seats where normally a Government 5 years in should be struggling to defend some of these type of seats. The two big victories in Derwent Valley and Wyre Forest are of most significance as they demonstrate the Tories hold on the midlands is greater than they even had in May, in line with the polling in the midlands region. Having gone through the history it’s also worth noting the Derwent Valley result is the Tories best in that ward since the early nineties. To increase their vote in Norfolk in seats they started from a big base already is also very good news for David Cameron & Co. his week is more evidence that the Tories remain in command in this post new Labour world, even in spite of the weeks difficult headlines for the Prime Minister.

Labour – While they will be pleased to win Pontefract their vote dipped below the 50% mark they achieved here in May, so even their best result has it’s caveats. They were down everywhere else and their failure to compete in Derwent Valley and in the Wyre Forest seat will be hugely disappointing, especially Derwent valley as two MP’s went there to help the Get Out The Vote effort. If Labour were hoping for either a Corbyn bounce or that piggate and all were going to do the Tories some damage, their hopes are in tatters after this weeks polling, and even more so after these by elections. Those predicting Corbyn would be a disaster electorally for Labour, are so far being proved more right than even they probably imagined.

Lib Dems – Although not competitive in any of these seats, the Lib Dems will be pleased with their rebuilding of their vote this week. Both Norfolk and the Derwent Valley seat saw them take support from Labour even though Labour were supposedly the main challengers. Something to watch, a new form a tactical voting where people who cannot bring themselves to vote Tory,vote Lib Dem instead to thwart Corbyn’s Labour Party could be being created.

UKIP – UKIP have held two second places this week with an increase in Pontefract. Maybe the first signs of them bottoming out in local contests after a difficult period. The high profile of immigration on the current political agenda may have helped, it’s worth remembering despite those of the left calling for more what they deem ‘morality’ in calling for more migrants/refuges to be taken, most polling shows that most people think the 20,000 Cameron has committed to is too many already. Ground for UKIP to build on. It’s also worth pointing out UKIP’s fall in local elections has not been matched in the national polls. UKIP are far from dead as some sort of electoral force..