Moon Of Liberty Polling – ICM Con lead by 14% & Cardiff Uni Welsh Poll

WAP

POLLING

Conservative’s keep 14% lead in first ICM 2017 poll

ICM have released the first poll of 2017 with fieldwork having been done in the New Year and the Conservatives maintain a 14% lead over Labour with the Lib Dems, who had a post Richmond by election bounce last time, down 2% back into single figures. Despite a similar lead over Labour to the YouGov poll the regional breakdown sees a bigger meltdown in the North West and in Yorkshire for Labour, which would see them lose more seats handing the Tories a bigger majority of 142. The SNP are on 42% in Scotland, considerably less than YouGov recorded.It means the Tory average lead is 14.5% and the projected Tory majority increases to 120. All the up to date figures can be found here

Cardiff University Welsh Poll

Cardiff University have released a Wales only poll. The Westminster voting intention sees Labour lead by 5% in Wales, they won by 10 at the 2015 General Election so the move to the Conservatives would see the Tories gain four seats that are notionally Labour on the new boundaries.Full details including Welsh Assembly polling can be found at the Cardiff University website here

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

ICM Poll (09/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 42% Lab 28% UKIP 12% LD 9% Green 4% – Con Lead 14%

Regional Breakdown Seat Projection

YouGov (01/01/2017) – Con 371 Lab 165 LD 7 SNP45 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 142

Cardiff University Poll (Wales Only)

Westminster Voting Intention

Lab 33% Con 28% UKIP 13% Plaid Cymru 13% LD 9%Labour lead 5%

Represents a swing of 2.5% from Lab to Con in Wales against May 2015

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Moon Polling – ICM Monthly Poll

WAP

 

Polling

ICM Monthly Poll

Tories lead by 5% with ICM, Projected majority of 68

ICM have released their monthly poll and on the face of it looks not quite so bad for Labour, until that is you drill down into the figures. The headline lead for the Conservative remains at 5% the same as last month. The Labour share of 35% is much better than it has been in other polls, however the raw numbers actually found more 2015 Labour than Conservative voters, meaning a 5% lead for the Tories on this sample, is probably bigger on a sample more representative of how Britain actually voted in May’s General Election.Never the less, we can only ever use the figures we are given and as May showed, an outlier is not always wrong just because it is an outlier.

The regional patterns don’t make good reading for Labour in England. While the rise in the vote share comes as a result of much better figures in Scotland and Wales, with the SNP only on 41% in contrast to Com Res and Survation that had them over 50%. Most of England sees a big swing to the Tories against May, as much as 6% in most regions outside of London and the South. ICM sees a return to particularly dire numbers in the Midlands after Com Res and Survation found numbers not as bad there, this is key to where Labour must improve to stand a chance in 2020.

As a result of the distribution of where Labour have improved and where they have not, the 1% swing implied nationwide to Labour by the 5% Tory lead figure does not translate into seats. Indeed the seat projection sees ICM come back in line with most others pointing to a Tory majority between 60 and 80 (The last ICM poll was slightly lower than that.) In this case the ICM poll has a Tory majority of 68, primarily due to the Midlands but also poor Labour figures in the North and Yorkshire.

With the inclusion of this poll the Tory average lead across all polls is now 8.1% and the poll of polls seat projection sees the projected Tory Majority nudge up by 2 from 68 to 70. All the numbers can be found here. The breakdown for the ICM poll is below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

ICM Poll (18/01/2016)

Vote Share – Con 40% Lab 35% UKIP 10% LD 6% Green 2% – Con Lead 5%

Regional Seat Projection

Con 359 Lab 208 LD 9 SNP 49 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority 68

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Numbers Update – by elections & two polls

WAP

By Elections

This week saw seven local by elections. The main winners were the Conservatives with 3 gains, including one from Labour in a seat the Tories had never won before, they also had a spectacular victory in Epsom where the Tories finished 5th in 2013, but won this week.

Local By Elections 19/11/2015

Watton (Norfolk) Con 822 Ind 793 Lab 105 Green 81Con GAIN from UKIP – Swing n/a as no UKIP candidate.

South Smallburgh (Norfolk) LD 1383 Con 697 UKIP 219 Lab 103 Green 52LD Hold – Swing (May 2013) Con-LD 13.1%

Llanaelhaearn (Gywnedd) Plaid Cymru 200 Llais Gwynedd 112 Ind 99Plaid Cymru GAIN from Llais Gwynedd – Swing (May 2012) LG-PC 29.7%

Dewi (Gwynedd) PC 189 Lab 110 LD 19PC Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-PC 1%

Kidwelly (Carmarthenshire) Lab 288 PC 248 Ind 177 People 1st 58 Con 53 Ind 28Lab Hold – Swing n/a as no PC candidate last time.

Aylesford Green (Ashford) Con 110 UKIP 109 Lab 106 Ind 92 LD 42 Green 10Con GAIN from Lab – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 5.5%

Epsom West (Surrey) Con 619 Resident Association 591 LD 588 Lab 578 UKIP 168 Green 58Con GAIN from LD – Swing (May 2013) LD-Con 8.1%, Con were 5th in 2013.

Projected Nation share (Based on last 20 local by elections fought)

Con 33% Lab 28.6% LD 19.3% UKIP 10.1% SNP 4.3% Green 2.8%

Opinion Polls

ICM and Ipsos-Mori have released their October voting intention polls. Both see increased Conservative leads and both regionally project a healthy Conservative Majority. In line with what we are seeing in the by elections with the Tories in control where it matters and Labour continuing to do badly, especially in the Midlands where most of the key seats are. The Liberal Democrats will be disappointed to see there is still no breakthrough in the national polls considering their improved performance at local level.

ICM 17/11/2015

Voting Intention UK – Con 39% Lab 33% UKIP 12% LD 7% Green 4%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 353 Lab 210 LD 6 SNP 58 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18Con Majority 56

Ipsos-Mori 19/11/2015

Voting Intention UK – Con 41% Lab 34% LD 7% UKIP 7% Green 4%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 358 Lab 206 LD 6 SNP 58 Plaid Cymru 2 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18Con Majority 66

Conclusion by party

Conservative – An excellent set of number for the Tories, 3 gains in the by elections and still well ahead in the polls and seat projections where it matters. David Cameron remain in complete control of the UK political scene right now.

Labour – This is Labour’s worst week for sometime. With terrorism in the headlines, Jeremy Corbyn appears particularly weak when anything of that nature comes up. I have always said Corbyn cannot win a General Election, I have seen nothing to come even close to changing my mind.

Lib Dems – Another decent week locally, a good result in Norfolk, although a poor result losing in Epsom in Surrey. Their poll ratings remain at the same low level they got in May too. Mixed news for the Lib Dems but at least at local level the pointers are to some decent results in May 2016.

UKIP – Struggling to find an identity post May, UKIP’s problem is they are not competing where they should be. The Mori poll has them down on 7% nationally in line with evidence they have fallen back since May. The Parliamentary by-election in Oldham West will be a big test of where UKIP are, it is a by election they should be competing in, current trends suggest they will fall well short.

SNP – No local elections this week but Scottish polling suggests they are still on course to match or better their performance last May in the Scottish Parliament elections. Doing so will mean further advances as the SNP got 45% in the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, so they would be up by a further 5% at least if they repeat their General Election performance. Bad news for Labour who would be the main losers.

Plaid Cymru – Plaid are another big warning for Labour. They have done well in Welsh local elections recently, the potential for them to score some upsets at Labour’s expense in the Welsh Assembly elections looks to be on the increase. Plaid are the wild card that could really spoil Jeremy Corbyn’s night next May, as holding Wales is something Labour are banking on.

Com Res poll – A chill wind for Labour

WAP

As part of wider Labour leadership polling Communicate Research had produced another Voting Intention poll along with it and the results are sensational. The poll gives David Cameron his biggest poll lead for five years with any pollster leading by 14% on the UK voting intention. The details give the Tories a 15% lead in England. Regionally broken down the poll gives the Tories a 7.5% swing against Labour across both the Midlands and Wales. More dramatically, it also give the Tories an 8.5% swing across the North of England, an area that until now has held up for Labour.

There is very little change in Scotland with the SNP still polling at 49%. The Tory vote edging up is statistically enough to take Berwickshire from the SNP, the averages also give the Tories 3 more seats against the Lib Dems which will be far more difficult to take in reality. The swings across the North, Wales and the Midlands would give the Tories 66 gains from Labour leading to the Tories having 401 seats, a Majority of 152 based on the projection for current boundaries. This would leave Labour a rump of 166 seats, only one more than the Tories had after the 1997 thrashing.

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Communicate Research Poll 25/06/2015

Voting Intention – UK Wide Con 42% Lab 28% UKIP 9% LD 8% Green 6%

Voting Intention – Eng only Con 44% Lab 29% UKIP 10% LD 8% Green 6%

Voting Intention – Scot Only SNP 49% Lab 21% Con 17% Green 6% LD 4% UKIP 3%

Seat Projection (Based on regional patterns & Current Boudnaries)

Con 401 Lab 166 LD 5 SNP 55 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern ireland 18

Conservative Overall Majority 152

Conclusion

There has been talk of the fact the Tories could win a landslide if Jeremy Corbyn wins the leadership. Until now that has been theory. Of course polls like this at this point in the cycle have to be treated carefully and it is of course only one poll, but this is the first cold statistical evidence that such talk of a landslide in 5 years time is a very real possibility indeed, based purely on real numbers, not just talk, comment or theories.

By-Elections round up & Com Res poll

WAP

By-Elections

There were four by-elections this week. The first, unusually held on a Tuesday in the Orkney’s saw an ‘Orkney manifesto’ candidate elected. It will be interesting to see if this is the start of a trend of island focused candidates/parties taking over from traditional independents who have historically dominated the politics of the North Scottish Islands at local level.

On Thursday saw three by-elections. One in Durham which saw the first outing for the new North-East Party who finished second in Durham but not with enough to worry Labour’s North-East dominance just yet. The other two elections said more about the national picture. With Jeremy Corbyn excitement sweeping Labour, the strategy his supporters put forward of winning back Green and UKIP voters could to an extent be put to a small scale test. One election was in Witney, where the Tories were expected to win and did so, but there was a 20% Green vote for Labour to squeeze. In Cornwall the seat was a defense by UKIP, thus a big UKIP vote for Labour to squeeze if they are serious about winning these votes back.

In both cases Labour failed. The Tories held the Witney seat but it was the Lib Dems to jumped from fourth to second to squeeze these votes, and Labour’s vote actually fell. In Cornwall, the Tories gained the seat and yet again it was the Lib Dems who did a good job at squeezing the UKIP votes, not Labour. If there was excitement from supporters of minor parties about Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader, it could have showed on Thursday, it didn’t

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

18/08/2015

West Mainland (Orkney) Orkney Manifesto 593 Ind 446 Green 115Orkney Manifesto GAIN from Ind – Swing n/a

20/08/2015

Shotton & S Hetton (Durham) Lab 595 N-E Party 214 LD 107 UKIP 131 Con 67 Green 19.- Lab Hold – Swing n/a as no North-East Party candidate last time

Witney North (W Oxfordshire) –Con 264 LD 201 Green 136 Lab 114 UKIP 64Con Hold – Swing (From May 2012) Con-LD 12.9%

Camborne Pendarves (Cornwall) – Con 325 LD 311 Lab 220 UKIP 89 Mebyon Kernow 85 Green31 Ind 13CON GAIN FROM UKIP – Swing (May 2013) UKIP-Con 12%

National Projected Share (Based on last 20 by-elections fought by each party)

Con 33.2% Lab 29.8% LD 15.4% UKIP 10% Green 3.5%

Communicate Research Poll

Communicate Research latest poll put the Conservatives 11% ahead on voting intention. Again this does not point to enthusiasm amongst the general public for the prospect of a Jeremy Corbyn Labour leadership. It should be said this poll does see a decent swing to Labour in the south, The big Tory lead in the south is as I have said before difficult to model correctly. What this means is the poll probably has Labour doing better in the south than they really are, which means the Tory lead could be even bigger than reported. The poll also sees the Tories ahead of Labour in Scotland, 3 of the 4 most recent polls have also shown this. Due to small samples an anomaly is always possible on the region breakdown, however 3 out of 4 suggest there maybe more too it. The regional breakdown on seats would, in line with all other post election polls so far, see an increased Conservative Overall Majority

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Communicate Research Poll 17/08/2015

Vote Share UK Wide – Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4%

Seat Projection based on regional patterns 

Con 351 Lab 214 LD 6 UKIP 1 SNP 56 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northen Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority 52

Conclusion

What is interesting is that in local contests the Lib Dems are doing better and the Tory vote, while not soaring, is doing just enough to continue to hold key seats. The Lib Dem revival is not yet translating into the national picture. they are 7% higher in local contests than in the national polls, and the Tories are doing 7% less well in local contests than in National polls, Given this 7% gives the Tories a higher rating than in the national polls, this means there are Labour 2015 voters, now willing to back the Lib Dems in local contests, but say they would vote Tory in a General Election. The last few weeks has seen the Tories do much better when head to head with Labour which further backs this up. The Lib Dems can be cautiously confident when claiming their fightback, but we with no certainty that the improvement will translate into commons seats nationally.The Tories can be cautiously confident of their dominant position, but not overly so.

The SNP scored 48% in Scotland on the Com Res poll and are still dominating Scotland. The Cornwall and Witney by-elections are contests UKIP would have done much better in a couple of years ago, their position appears to remain stagnant. It is Labour who have the most to worry about. They will claim as they have no leader this is not a surprise. This is a hollow claim given the huge publicity they have had and claims of all this apparent excitement around Jeremy Corbyn with him packing 1000 seater halls around the country. Many people have a Corbyn win penciled in, they may be wrong, but are going to the polls on the assumption Corbyn will be the leader. The reality is amongst the quiet moderates in marginal seats, particularly in the shires is, there is no excitement for Labour, or the leader most of them now think will win, at all.

The Lib Dems – The other leadership contest

WAP

Catching far less attention after their drubbing in May, the leadership contest for the Liberal Democrat Party will not grab huge headlines, but may sometime down the road be just as important for the future of British politics as the Labour contest. The two contenders emphasise the historic coalition of the old Liberal Party and the SDP created in the 1980’s. Norman Lamb the MP for North West Norfolk is of the Liberal tradition, while Tim Farron the MP for Westmorland And Lonsdale in the Lake District area is of the more left-wing SDP tradition. Farron has been the favourite throughout and a poll from the Lib Dem Newswire confirms this.

Lib Dem Newswire Poll – Tim Farron 58% Norman Lamb 42%

This shows the momentum is with Farron. The effect of Farron winning may be that the road back is longer, making Conservative seats more difficult to win back than Labour seats even though in the short term the Lib Dems have stronger position in more Conservative seats., However the long term scope for the Lib Dems attacking more Labour seats could be more fruitful looking 10 years ahead, the aim would be to win back the protest UKIP votes back particularly in the North of England, and then attack more Labour seats two elections down the line. This may be particularly effective if Jeremy Corbyn wins the Labour leadership, Farron could position himself as the sensible center-left opposition to the Government in an era of Labour extremism.