Moon Polling – Ipsos-Mori

WAP

Polling

Ipsos-Mori poll – 17th Feb 2016

Labour close the gap to 6% but projected Tory majority unchanged at 64

VOTING INTENTION

Ipsos-Mori have released their February poll showing a different trendline to ICM and Com Res that were out over the last few days. The headline voting intention figure sees the Tory lead over Labour down from 9% in January to 6% this month. The poll detail shows the old South of England problem returning giving Labour a big swing in the south, as against modest to medium swing to the Tories everywhere else against the May 2015 result. This along with the sample in the raw data being heavily skewed towards public sector workers is why Labour’s position holds up better than in other polls.

The 7% swing in the south (excluding London) would only have Labour picking up 13 seats in the south against the Tories which is easily wiped out by Tory gains in other regions. This shows the problem Labour will have even if they did very well in the south but not elsewhere as this poll suggests, as in the main they need huge swings to gain a serious number of seats there. The seat projection actually sees the Tories get exactly the same number of seats as in the January poll with a net increase of 26 seats on 357, meaning an overall majority of 64. In Scotland the SNP are recorded at 55%, and would take all 59 seats Scottish seats as a result. The poll is another showing no breakthrough for the Lib Dems.

EU REFERENDUM

The poll also asked the EU Referendum question and that too sees no change from January with Remain maintaining it’s 19% lead. The dynamics described above may suggest why this poll shows no change while the other poll that is done by phone, Com Res, saw a substantial swing to the leave campaign. The skew in this poll towards public sector workers and the high SNP figure mean an increase within groups known to be more likely to vote for remain. The likely exaggeration of Labour position in the south also may help the remain figure where a bigger Tory lead would have closed the gap.

CONCLUSION

While there is evidence to suggest this poll probably exaggerates Labour (In terms of headline voting percentage at least, though not so much in terms of seat projection) and the Remain in the EU positions, this is a poll for both to hold onto. Labour can use it to challenge the assumption that the Tories have increased their lead, and remain supporters can point to this poll to claim the rot of support moving to the leave campaign has stopped. A poll to challenge perceptions, that are sometimes more important in what happens next than the reality. Also of course while this poll of the last few is the outlier, the lesson of May 2015 is that we should not assume the outlier is always wrong.Whatever the details, this poll is good news for Remain, and some relief for Labour and Jeremy Corbyn.

THE NUMBERS (Poll of Poll averages)

Voting Intention – The Tory lead over Labour falls from 9% to 8.5%

Seat Projection – The Tory projected Overall Majority remains unchanged at 78

EU Referendum – The Remain lead in the EU Referendum phone poll average is unchanged at 13.5%

All the updated numbers can be found here. A breakdown of the Ipsos-Mori poll is below.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori Poll (17/02/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 39% Lab 33% LD 6% UKIP 12% Green 3% – Con lead 6%

REGIONAL SEAT PROJECTION

Con 357 Lab 204 LD 7 SNP 59 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority of 64

EU REFERENDUM

Remain 55% Leave 36%Remain lead 19%

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Moon Polling – Com Res EU Referendum Poll

WAP

Polling

EU Referendum Poll

Remain lead cut by more than half to 8% in Com Res Referendum poll

Along with the full Com Res Westminster poll they also asked the EU question. This is a phone poll which has been seeing considerably better figures for those who want to say in the EU. This poll confirms the trend is with those who want to leave with the 18% Remain lead in the last Com Res poll being cut to 8%. It also sees remain drop below 50% for the first time in a phone poll. It means the average phone poll lead for Remain is cut from 18.5% to 13.5%. .All the updated figures can be found here

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Com Res EU Referendum Poll (13/02/2016)

Remain 49% Leave 41%Remain lead 8%

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Moon Polling – Com Res and ICM

WAP

Polling

Com Res and ICM February Polls

National Westminster polls move further to the Tories

There have been two national polls released in the last few days. While we saw signs of hope for Labour in recent local by-elections, the national picture continues to look very bleak for the red team. The Communicate Research poll gave the Conservatives a 14% headline lead, the breakdown suggests this is exaggerated due to a very strong performance in the poll in Scotland on voting intention against Labour (Although this makes virtually no difference on seats as the SNP remained strong in this poll), on more normal Scottish figures the lead would have been around 11%. Across England the Com Res poll gave a fairly consistent picture of a swing between 2-4% from Labour to Conservative against last May across most regions, with a greater swing seen in Wales. The regional patterns would give the Tories an overall majority of 94.

The ICM has reported lower headline leads than most, their new poll has the Tories headline lead at 7%, up from 5% in January. Despite the discrepancy the trend is going the same way with the Tories increasing their lead. The regional patterns with ICM were a bit all over the place, with a huge swing to the Tories in Wales, Labour doing far better in the North than we have seen in other polls and the SNP down to 38% in Scotland. Com Res had the SNP on 51% retaining all it’s 56 seats, ICM would have the SNP down to 44 seats. It’s pretty clear the former is more credible on current trends. There is little to report regarding UKIP and the Lib Dems. UKIP continue to hold up OK and the Lib Dems continue to make no breakthrough in either poll.

Due to the more wild anomalies on one hand the ICM seat projection should be treated with a touch of caution as it sees both sides gain seats that are highly unlikely in reality, on the other hand it gives the Tories an overall majority of 80, which is almost in line with the average, so perhaps the wild moves even themselves out into something reasonably credible afterall, with the exception of the SNP figure of course.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Com Res (13/02/2016) 

Voting Intention – Con 41% Lab 27% UKIP 15% LD 9% Green 3% – Con lead 14%

Regional Seat Projection

Con 372 Lab 198 LD 8 SNP 56 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority 94

ICM (15/02/2016)

Voting Intention – Con 39% Lab 32% UKIP 11% LD 7% Green 4% – Con Lead 7%

Regional Seat Projection

Con 365 Lab 209 LD 8 SNP 44 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority 80

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CONCLUSION

These two polls continue to suggest if there is no change of Labour leader, there is only one winner in 2020. After issues with tax credits, Tory splits emerging over the EU Referendum and the dispute around Junior Doctors, it still appears Labour have made no inroads at all, indeed if anything are further away from power than they were at the start of 2016. As for the Tories, they appear to have free reign to split for the EU Referendum without any great consequence due to the weakness of the opposition, a luxury few could have predicted.

THE NUMBERS

The Tories average poll of polls lead increases from 8.4% to 9% over Labour. The poll of poll seat projection nudges up from 74 to 78. All the latest numbers can be found here.

 

Moon Elections – by-elections 11 February

WAP

Elections

By-Elections – 11th February 2016

Tories suffer worst set of results since the General Election

There were four by elections this week. Labour were defending three very safe seats in safe Labour Westminster constituencies. The fact they were going to hold all three was never in doubt, what was different was that the Conservatives were in second place in all three when the wards were last fought. In recent times Labour have not done well in straight head to heads against the Tories in even safe seats, this week they did with strong swings in Bolton and Coventry with the Tory vote down 11% in Bolton (where UKIP who did not stand last time came second) and 6% in Coventry against last May. There was a small swing to the Tories in Hounslow but that ward was last fought in 2014 where the Tories were starting from a lower base and Labour a higher base, therefore the fact the Labour vote was up 1% there was also a decent result.

The fourth by election was in the Con-Lib Dem marginal of Eastleigh. The ward itself was narrowly Lib Dem on General Election day but to show they could be looking on course to take the seat back they not only needed to hold the seat but needed a swing of around 8%. The swing was actually over 9%, a very good result for the Lib Dems with the Tory vote down 6% in line with the other results. Last week saw a Tory slip and this week appears to have confirmed this week. The full results are below.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Local By Elections (11th February 2016)

Cranston (Hounslow) Lab 1264 Con 638 LD 265 UKIP 96 Green 48Lab Hold – Swing (May 14) Lab-Con 0.9%

West End North (Eastleigh) – LD 582 Con 315 UKIP 115 Lab 58 Green 28LD Hold – Swing (May 15) Con-LD 9.7%

Lower Stoke (Coventry)Lab:1235 Con 344 UKIP 290 Green 165 LD 124Lab Hold – Swing (May 15) Con-Lab 6.7%

Crompton (Bolton) – Lab 1961 UKIP 320 Con 302 LD 117 Green:65Lab Hold – Swing (May 15) Con-Lab 9.4%

Projected national UK share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought by each party)

Con 34.2% Lab 30.6% LD 15.8% UKIP 9.3% SNP 4.5% Green 3.6% – Con lead 3.6%

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Conclusion

Conservative – Interesting that there has been a clear drop in support and increase in willingness to use local elections to kick the Government since the fallout from the EU Deal. While the three Labour seats this week were safe Labour seats, next week we may get an idea if the change applies to marginals as well with the Tories defending two seats in the Westminster marginal of Broxtowe, two seats they are unlikely to lose, but similar drops in vote share and swings against them would confirm the apparent sea change is a wider problem. The result in Eastleigh is also a bad one, on that swing they would lose the Westminster seat to the Lib Dems. Plenty to contemplate as the Tory armour is showing chinks for the first time since last May.

Labour – Two strong swings against the Conservatives, albeit in safe seats, may suggest there is some light for Labour looking ahead to May. Their projected vote share is also above 30% for the first time this year and the gap between the Tories and Labour is now the lowest in 2016 as well. Ultimately they still need to prove they can do it in Westminster marginal seats, next week in two Broxtowe contests they get their chance. They don’t have to win them as the Tories are well ahead in both wards, but strong swings along the lines of what they got this week would be a very positive step forward. Can they do it?

Lib Dem – Despite vote falls elsewhere, the Eastleigh result will be a heartening one for Tim Farron and the ‘Lib Dem fightback.’ A result over and above what they would need to win Eastleigh in 2020 makes this the most significant result they have had since last May. Maybe the first true signs they have areas they are ‘winning here’ once again.

UKIP – A mixed bag for UKIP, they move into second place in Bolton, but their vote share fell significantly in Eastleigh and Hounslow. The UKIP performances have been unpredictable so far in 2016 and they are doing much better in national opinion polls than in local contests. They will be a wildcard in May that is still strong enough to do everyone damage, however I would also expect them to fall back significantly in some places as well.

The Numbers – The Conservative lead over Labour has fallen from 4.7% to 3.6% as a result of this weeks result. All the numbers, including the polling numbers, General Election seat projections and EU Referendum polling can be found here.

Moon Elections – By Election round up 04 Feb 2016

WAP

Elections

By Elections 04 Feb 2016

Tories lose two seats in a poor night for the Blues

There were four elections on Thursday night which showed the first signs the electorate were willing to give the Government a bloody nose as local elections are traditionally used for. The Tories were defending three of the seats and lost two of them, one to an Independent in Hexham and the other to the Greens in Shropshire. Both looked good on paper given recent trends and suggest there may be a shift away from the Government in certain circumstances. The third seat they only narrowly held against the Lib Dems in Cambridgeshire with a strong swing to the Liberal Democrats who failed to make the gain by just 18 votes. The one caveat to the Tories doing less well is there is no sign of this helping Labour. While Labour held their seat in  Leicestershire, there was a small swing to the Conservatives against what happened on General Election night. The full numbers are below

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Hexham West (Nothumberland) – Ind (Kennedy) 501 Con 454 Lab 200 Ind (Pickering) 125 Green 89IND GAIN FROM CON – Swing n/a

Measham South (NW Leicestershire) – Lab 257 Con 202 UKIP 141Lab Hold – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 0.5%

Oswestry South (Shropshire) – Green 518 Con 367 Lab 95 LD 81GREEN GAIN FROM CON – Swing (May 2013) Con-Green 14.2%

Bottisham (E Cambs) – Con 421 LD 403 Lab 99 UKIP 43Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-LD 9%

Projected national UK share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought by each party)

Con 34.5% Lab 29.8% LD 16.5% UKIP 9.6% SNP 4.2% Green 3.6% – Con lead 4.7%

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Conclusion

Conservative – If what we saw this week becomes a trend this is a worrying time. It suggests in contests against anyone other than Labour there now is scope for the electorate to go with the protest. The fact Labour are not benefiting from this is the one solace of the evening which is the worst set of results for the Tories since the May General Election

Labour – Will be frustrated that while there are stirrings of votes to be won against the Government for the first time, they are not winning them. The Measham result, while a win, suggests they are still bumping along at slightly below the 30% mark, and another swing to the Tories against General election night suggests Labour are continuing to make virtually no progress at all.

Lib Dems – Will be pleased they competed in Cambridgeshire as they had been struggling in competitive seats as of late. Despite not quite taking the Bottisham seat, it was a very encouraging result.

UKIP – Not in any competitive races this week but their vote share appears to be going back in the right direction, taking votes from Labour and the Conservatives.

Green – Gaining a Conservative seat on a big swing. A great night for the Greens which may give them confidence they can compete at local level on a ‘give the Government a kicking’ platform.

The Numbers – The Tories take a substantial hit and see their lead over Labour fall from 7% to 4.7%. It should be pointed out this is due to the Tories losing vote share to other parties, not due to any Labour improvement. All the current polling/election numbers can be found here.

Moon Polling – YouGov

WAP

Polling

YouGov Poll 31/01/2016

Tories increase headline lead to 9, Projected Tory Landslide Majority 132

YouGov’s end of January poll has been released and continues to be out of line with other polls with the regional patterns continuing to project a 100+ majority for the Tories where the others are in the region of 60-80. The headline Voting Intention number sees the Conservative lead increasing from 7% in December to 9% now. The poll continued to see the Southern issue emerge with the South (excluding London) seeing a decent swing to Labour when there is a swing to the Tories everywhere else. Particularly damaging to Labour is the 8% swing to the Conservatives in the Midlands against what happened in May, this is where the Conservatives really see their seat numbers rocket. The swings in other regions were well above the average of other pollsters as well. The movement is lower in London, that is in trend  with other polls with the Tories only getting a 2% swing against May in the Capital.

UKIP also do very well in this poll on 17% and the regional numbers would see them pick up a gain in Thanet South. The Liberal Democrats continue to show no progress nationally at all. In Scotland Labour did retain second place and this is partly reason the Tory lead is not in double figures. The SNP remain well ahead in Scotland, although this poll has them slightly lower than other pollsters, hence their seat number falls more than is probably really the case. As for the projected majority, it is YouGov’s third in a row projecting 100+ which no other pollster does. With that caveat, it is also a useful reminder of how far Labour could fall if the Corbyn experiment completely collapses, and will continue to give heart to those who dare to suggest quietly, that a Tory Landslide is possible with Labour being led by Jeremy Corbyn. The breakdown is below.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

YouGov Poll (31/01/2016)

UK Voting Intention – Con 39% Lab 30% UKIP 17% LD 6% Green 3% – Con lead 9%

Regional based seat projection

Con 391 Lab 175 LD 9 SNP 51 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall majority 132

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Conclusion

Another excellent poll for the Conservatives and even if the seat projection is an outlier and exaggerating the position, it is still showing a very healthy position with other polls backing up the fact the Tories remain well ahead at this point. There is no turning point for Labour or the Liberal Democrats, while the EU and migrant crisis are clearly playing well for UKIP. The SNP remain strong and frankly, their Westminster position is not that relevant now as they concentrate on Holyrood, where polls show them doing even better than in the Westminster polls.

The Numbers – The Conservative headline voting intention average lead remains the same at 8.4%, the average projected poll of polls seat projection sees projected the Tory majority up from 70 to 74. All the updated figures can be found here.

 

Moon Polling – Ipsos Mori

Blue_Moon2

WAP

Polling

Ipsos-Mori Poll 28/01/2016

Tories increase their lead to nine, projected Majority of 64

Ipsos-Mori have released their first voting intention poll of 2016 and the headline figures make more bleak reading for Labour. The Conservative lead has increased from 7% to 9%. The detail sees the pollsters southern problem return, seeing a 7.5% swing to Labour in the South of England (Excluding London) which is clearly nonsense. The rest is in line with what you would expect, Labour doing a little bit better in London, but the Tories doing better than their General Election performance in the North, Midlands, Yorkshire & Wales. Scotland again sees the Tories in second place, although the 34% share the Tories are given, only 10% behind the SNP is clearly an outlier. The breakdown of the poll is below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori (28/01/2016)

UK Voting Intention – Con 40% Lab 31% LD 7% UKIP 11% Green 4% – Con lead 9%

Regional Seat Projection (Current boundaries)

Con 357 Lab 218 LD 7 SNP 45 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 64

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Conclusion 

Caution is required with this poll due to the elements that are out of line with other polling. On the seat projection it is likely that the SNP are too low as the Tory share in Scotland exaggerates the number of seats the Tories would take there, Labour are too high due to the nonsensical south of England figures, and the Tories projection is about OK given there Scottish gains they would not get in reality are offset by the southern losses to Labour they would not lose in reality. As a result the eventual projected Tory majority is in the 60-80 trend we have seen with the majority of pollsters, even if it took a round about way of getting there.

The Numbers

As a result of this poll the average Tory poll lead over Labour increases from 8.1% to 8.4%. The poll of polls projected Tory majority is unchanged at 70. All the updated figures can be found here.