Elections & Polling numbers

WAP

UK Westminster Voting Intention Polls

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Blue_Moon2

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Current UK Polls

Vote Share (Updated 14/02/2018)

UK VOTE SHARE FOR EACH POLL (Most recent within the last 3 months count towards the average, older polls will show here but will be excluded from the average)

YouGov (09/02/2018) – Con 43% Lab 39% LD 8% UKIP 4% Green 3% – Con Lead 4%

ICM (06/02/2018) – Con 41% Lab 40% LD 8% UKIP 4% Green 3% – Con Lead 1%

Opinium (10/02/2018) – Con 42% Lab 39% LD 7% UKIP 5% Green 1% – Con Lead 3%

Survation (05/02/2018) – Con 40% Lab 43% LD 8% UKIP 3% Green 1% – Lab lead 3%

TNS/Kantar (21/11/2017) – Con 42% Lab 38% LD 9% UKIP 5% Green 3%Con lead 4%

Ipsos-Mori (26/01/2018) – Con 39% Lab 42% LD 9% UKIP 3% Green 2% – Lab lead 3%

BMG (10/02/2018) – Con 40% Lab 40% LD 8% UKIP 4% Green 2%Tied

Polling Average (including polls above less than 3 months old)

Con 41% Lab 40.1% LD 8.1% UKIP 3.9% Green 2.1% – Con lead 0.9%

Scottish Polling Average (Scottish subsamples and Scottish Only Polls)

Con 26.8% Lab 27.6% SNP 34.1% LD 5.8% UKIP 1.5% Green 4% – SNP Lead over Lab 6.5%

Seat Projections Updated 14.02.2018

Central Seat Projection (Via Electoral Calculus based on the poll averages above)

Con 309 Lab 279 LD 15 SNP 25 Green 1 UKIP 0 Plaid Cymru 3 Northern Ireland 18

Con Largest Party – 17 Seats Short of an Overall Majority

Lab bias Seat Projection (Including a 2% Margin of Error swing Conservative to Labour)

Con 278 Lab 310 LD 15 SNP 25 Green 1 UKIP 0 Plaid Cymru 2 Northern Ireland 18

Lab Largest Party – 16 Seats Short of an Overall Majority

Con bias Seat Projection (Including a 2% Margin of Error swing Labour to Conservative)

Con 337 Lab 250 LD 16 SNP 25 Green 1 UKIP 0 Plaid Cymru 3 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority of 24

Lib Dem bias Seat Projection (Including a 2% Margin of Error to the Lib Dems, (1% from Con and 1% from Lab)

Con 306 Lab 277 LD 18 SNP 27 Green 1 UKIP 0 Plaid Cymru 3 Northern Ireland 18

Con Largest Party – 20 Short of an Overall Majority

SNP bias Seat Projection (Including a 2% Margin of Error to the SNP in Scotland, (1% from Con and 1% from Lab)

Con 307 Lab 272 LD 15 SNP 34 Green 1 UKIP 0 Plaid Cymru 3 Northern Ireland 18

Con Largest Party – 19 Short of an Overall Majority

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LOCAL ELECTIONS

Local by-elections (Updated 14/02/2018)

Local By Elections – Projected national UK share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought by each party)

Con 38.1% Lab 34.5% LD 20% UKIP 1.4% SNP 3.8% Green 1.6% – Con lead 3.6%

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