Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local by Elections 9th March 2017

WAP

Local by Elections

9th March Local by Election round-up

This weeks seven by Elections continued the general trends we have seen. The Tories had a very good night on the whole, their gain from Labour in Waltham Cross, Broxbourne was the third week in a row they had made a gain from Labour. Victory in Derwent in Derby shows continued strength in a marginal area of North Derby and although the gain was technically from UKIP due to this being a rolling ward that elects 3 members over 3 years, Labour won the ward in 2015 & 2016 so was as god as another victory against Labour as well.

The Lib Dems got one excellent gain from the Tories in West Oxfordshire but there was not huge progress anywhere else, once again showing the limitations to their improvement. They are still polling well enough for a 20% plus projected share though on what was a decent night for them.The story is less rosy for UKIP and Labour for whom this weeks results will heap more misery continuing the string of poor results. UKIP’s share was down everywhere, Labour’s was down everywhere except Harrow, which shows again London is performing in a more positive way for Labour than everywhere else in the country.

This week sees the Tories UK projected share lead over Labour increase to 6%. UKIP are now below 7% and the Lib Dems are down a bit but still above 20% on 20.4%. All the most recent numbers can be found here.

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Local by Election Results – 9th March 2017

Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield (W Oxfordshire) LD 567 Con 504 Lab 71 UKIP 38 Green 35LD GAIN FROM CONSwing (May 2016) Con-LD 15.1%

Roxbourne (Harrow)Lab 1554 Con 533 LD 240 UKIP 148Lab HoldSwing (May 2014) Con-Lab 7.1%

Hertford Castle (East Hertfordshire) Con 593 Lab 207 LD 188 Green 154 UKIP 65Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Lab-Con 5.5%

Exton (Rutland) Con 238 LD 123 UKIP 39Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-LD 2.5%

Red Horse (Straford Upon Avon)Con 476 LD 266 UKIP 92 Green 58Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-LD 14.6%

Derwent (Derby)Con 789 Lab 611 UKIP 537 LD 192CON GAIN FROM UKIP Swing (May 2016) UKIP-Con 2.7%

Waltham Cross (Broxbourne) Con 650 Lab 646 UKIP 200 LD 89CON GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-Con 5.6%

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Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local by elections 02 Feb 2016

WAP

2nd Feb Local by elections round up

After last weeks loss in Copeland at Parliamentary level Labour suffered arguably an even more embarrassing loss in this weeks local by elections. Labour are using the high Jewish population in Kersal as the reason for their loss of a seat in traditional Labour heartland of Salford, however to lose a seat in such an area in opposition is a outstanding victory for the Conservatives on any level.

Elsewhere the Tories held their other two seats, one in Christchurch where they saw off a strong independent challenge, and in Hutton on Redcar & Cleveland council where the numbers looked ripe for another Lib Dem surge, but it did not materialise with both the Tory and Lib Dem vote up by a similar amount. There was a second by election in Redcar & Cleveland where the Lib Dems easily held Newcomon with a strong swing against Labour.

In short it was an excellent night for the Tories, a decent night for the Lib Dems and a very poor night for Labour, whose vote share was down everywhere on top of the loss of the Salford seat, and also the UKIP whose poor run of performances continue to where their local by election projected national share is down to just 7%

The results see the Conservatives increase their local by election projected share lead over Labour to 5.8% All the current polling and election numbers can be found here. All this weeks results are below.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Local by Elections – 2nd Feb 2017

Mudeford & Friars Cliff (Christchurch)Con 629 Ind 466 Lab 91 UKIP 85 Green 72Con HoldSwing n/a as no Ind last time

Kersal (Salford)Con 850 Lab 553 Ind 354 UKIP 182 Green 48 LD 39 CON GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-Con 12.7%

Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland)  – Con 860 LD 326 Lab 183 UKIP 129Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-LD 0.4%

Newcomen (Redcar & Cleveland)LD 426 Lab 259 UKIP 153 Ind 52 Ind 36 Con 29 LD HoldSwing (May 2015) Lab-LD 5.8%

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Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local By Elections round-up

WAP

Local By Elections 02/02/2017

Mixed bag of results may provide pointers to Parliamentary by elections to come

This week saw three by elections with very different scenarios all producing very different results. In East Staffordshire the Conservatives held their seat with a swing to them against Labour outperforming their General election day position in line with current opinion polls. The two by elections in Rotherham also had differing scenarios. The Dinnington ward had UKIP defending a seat against Labour which they lost. The other in the Brimsworth & Catcliffe ward was a Labour defence with UKIP in a distant second place last time. However in the same vain as we saw in a seat in Sunderland a few weeks ago, the Liberal Democrats came through from nowhere to take this seat on a huge swing

Looking ahead these trends may give some pointers to the upcoming Parliamentary by elections in Copeland and Stoke On Trent. Regarding Copeland, The result in East Staffordshire is another example of where it is a Tory verses Labour battle, in most cases the Tories have been winning. This may bode well for a Tory gain in Copeland. As for Stoke, good and bad news for Labour, clearly UKIP are struggling to make an impact which if this trend continues, suggests a UKIP gain in Stoke is unlikely, however, where Labour have the seat but UKIP are second, these are the conditions for the Liberal Democrats to take advantage. On a higher Parliamentary by election turnout this may not prove to be the case, but the warning is definitely there from both Rotherham and Sunderland before it. As ever all the caveats in translating lower turnout local contests with parliamentary by elections apply.

The current projected national share sees the Conservative lead over Labour currently 7.4% with the Lib Dems closing into just 4.2% behind Labour for second place as a result of their huge win. All the current numbers can be found here. This weeks by election numbers are below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Election Results

Local By Elections 02/02/2017

Town (East Staffs) – Con 627 Lab 359 UKIP 214Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Lab-Con 1.3%

Dinnington (Rotherham)Lab 670 UKIP 303 Con 238 Ind 232 Ind 180 Ind 81 Green 78 LD 75LAB GAIN FROM UKIPSwing (May 2016) UKIP-Lab 9.3%

Brinsworth & Catcliffe (Rotherham)LD 2000 Lab 519 UKIP 389 Con 91 Green 30LD GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-LD 38.3%

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Moon Of Liberty Elections – by elections 12th Jan 2017

WAP

Local by Elections 12 Jan 2017

Lib Dems kick off the year with two big gains

The Liberal Democrats were the big winners from the first set of local council by elections on 2017. They scored a spectacular victory in Sunderland where they only got 4% of the vote back in May to gain what looked a safe Labour seat with a swing of 37.4%. They also made a gain from the Conservative’s in Three Rivers. This was less of a shock as the Tory Councillor being replaced had won in 2015 and this multi member ward had been won by the Liberal Democrats in 2016, so the gain was not as much of a surprise, but will add to their momentum and it also gives them overall control of Three Rivers Council. The wins take the Lib Dem projected share for local by elections above 21% and if these trends continue they may overtake Labour before too long All the current numbers for polling and by elections can be found here. The results for this weeks by elections in full are below.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Local by elections 12/01

Sandhill (Sunderland)LD 824 Lab 458 UKIP 343 Con 184 Green 23LD GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-LD 35.7%

Gade Valley (Three Rivers)LD 626 Con 196 Lab 119 UKIP 45 Green 18LD GAIN FROM CONSwing (May 2016) Con-LD 2,7%

Projected national UK share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought by each party)

Con 35.3% Lab 26.9% LD 21.8% UKIP 8.1% SNP 4.4% Green 1.5% – Con lead 8.4%

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Moon Of Liberty Elections – By Elections 26-28 July 2016

WAP

Local Council By-Elections

Two gains for improving Lib Dems

At local level the Lib Dems can well and truly trumpet their fightback at the moment. They had another excellent week this week making two gains and with vote share increases that has pushed their average projected share above 20% for the the first time since the heady days of Cleggmania in 2015.

The Conservatives share has suffered slightly at the hands of this Lib Dem rise also losing a seat in Cornwall. However the made progress against the Lib Dems in Carshalton and held on against a strong Lib Dem challenge in East Hampshire.The only Conservative verses Labour head to head was in Droitwich where the Tories not only held on but scored a strong swing outperforming their General Election performance confirming recent national opinion polls when it comes to going head to head with Labour.

As for the red team, they were hit everywhere including failing to put up a candidate to defend their seat in Totnes after the meeting to select a candidate apparently ending in farce according to reports. Labour’s national difficulties appear to be showing through in local contests where, Harringey apart, they were hammered with their vote share falling everywhere else this week, including the Droitwich result against the Tories and the Newport result against the Lib Dems, both in normal times you would expect an opposition to be look to be gaining. Both began as marginals and Labour are now even further away than they were from these seats.

The results mean the Tories lead over Labour in projected vote share is up from 2% to 3.7% despite the Tory vote falling a touch due to the Lib Dem rise.This shows the at local level as at national level, it is Labour who are struggling most. All the current numbers/polling etc can be found here. This weeks full results are below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Local By Elections 26-28 July 2016

By Election 26/07/2016

The Hangers & Forest (E Hampshire)Con 236 LD 227 Justice Party 41 Lab 17Con Hold – Swing n/a as no LD last time.

By Election 27/07/2016

Totnes (South Hams)LD 812 Green 499 Ind 391 Con 197 LD GAIN FROM LAB – Swing n/a as Lab did not defend the seat with a Candidate.

By Elections 28/07/2016

Noolyn & Goonhavern (Cornwall)LD 247 Con 243 Ind 163 Mebyon Kernow 161 Lab 77 Ind 75 Ind 54LD GAIN FROM CON – Swing n/a as no LD candidate last time

Haringey (Harringay)Lab 1054 LD 765 Green 325 Con 99 UKIP 36Lab Hold – Swing (May 2014) Zero between Lab & LD

ST Julian’s (Newport)LD 948 Lab 432 UKIP 156 Con 135 Plaid Cymru 71 Green 25 LD Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-LD 15.9%

Carshalton Central (Sutton)LD 1250 Con 1061 Green 211 Lab 176 CPA 29LD Hold – Swing (May 2014) LD-Con 3.2%

Droitwich West (Wychavon)Con 281 Lab 161 UKIP 132 LD 97Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 6.4%

Projected national UK share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought by each party)

Con 31.3% Lab 27.6% LD 20.3% UKIP 8.4% SNP 4.4% Green 5.1% – Con lead 3.7%

Moon Elections – By Election round up 04 Feb 2016

WAP

Elections

By Elections 04 Feb 2016

Tories lose two seats in a poor night for the Blues

There were four elections on Thursday night which showed the first signs the electorate were willing to give the Government a bloody nose as local elections are traditionally used for. The Tories were defending three of the seats and lost two of them, one to an Independent in Hexham and the other to the Greens in Shropshire. Both looked good on paper given recent trends and suggest there may be a shift away from the Government in certain circumstances. The third seat they only narrowly held against the Lib Dems in Cambridgeshire with a strong swing to the Liberal Democrats who failed to make the gain by just 18 votes. The one caveat to the Tories doing less well is there is no sign of this helping Labour. While Labour held their seat in  Leicestershire, there was a small swing to the Conservatives against what happened on General Election night. The full numbers are below

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Hexham West (Nothumberland) – Ind (Kennedy) 501 Con 454 Lab 200 Ind (Pickering) 125 Green 89IND GAIN FROM CON – Swing n/a

Measham South (NW Leicestershire) – Lab 257 Con 202 UKIP 141Lab Hold – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 0.5%

Oswestry South (Shropshire) – Green 518 Con 367 Lab 95 LD 81GREEN GAIN FROM CON – Swing (May 2013) Con-Green 14.2%

Bottisham (E Cambs) – Con 421 LD 403 Lab 99 UKIP 43Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-LD 9%

Projected national UK share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought by each party)

Con 34.5% Lab 29.8% LD 16.5% UKIP 9.6% SNP 4.2% Green 3.6% – Con lead 4.7%

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Conclusion

Conservative – If what we saw this week becomes a trend this is a worrying time. It suggests in contests against anyone other than Labour there now is scope for the electorate to go with the protest. The fact Labour are not benefiting from this is the one solace of the evening which is the worst set of results for the Tories since the May General Election

Labour – Will be frustrated that while there are stirrings of votes to be won against the Government for the first time, they are not winning them. The Measham result, while a win, suggests they are still bumping along at slightly below the 30% mark, and another swing to the Tories against General election night suggests Labour are continuing to make virtually no progress at all.

Lib Dems – Will be pleased they competed in Cambridgeshire as they had been struggling in competitive seats as of late. Despite not quite taking the Bottisham seat, it was a very encouraging result.

UKIP – Not in any competitive races this week but their vote share appears to be going back in the right direction, taking votes from Labour and the Conservatives.

Green – Gaining a Conservative seat on a big swing. A great night for the Greens which may give them confidence they can compete at local level on a ‘give the Government a kicking’ platform.

The Numbers – The Tories take a substantial hit and see their lead over Labour fall from 7% to 4.7%. It should be pointed out this is due to the Tories losing vote share to other parties, not due to any Labour improvement. All the current polling/election numbers can be found here.

Numbers Round up – By Elections 26th November

WAP

An array of nine by elections took place last night. The first result looked good for Labour as they gained a seat in Essex from the Tories. However it then got worse, they failed against the Tories in Lancaster with a pro Tory swing against General election day, failed in Ashfield despite two independents splitting the vote in two seperate contests, failed in Newport where the same thing happened, and were easily beaten in two marginal seats in Scotland by the SNP where Labour had won on 1st preferences in 2012. By the end, what started like being a night with some electoral respite for the struggling Labour leadership, ended up being another night of overall misery.

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Elections 26/11/2015

Rochford (Rochford) – Lab 332 Con 328 UKIP 250 LD 114Lab GAIN From Con – Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 4.9%

Dunfirmline North (Fife) SNP 1056 Lab 719 Con 304 LD 230 Green 63 UKIP 58SNP Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 15.3%

Rosyth (Fife) SNP 1214 Lab 926 Con 245 LD 97 UKIP 88 Ind 66 Green 51SNP Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 11.3%

Pwilheli South (Gwynedd) Ind 269 Plaid Cymru 168 Ind 106 Llais Gwynedd 49Ind GAIN from Llais Gwynedd – Swing n/a

Bettws (Newport) Ind/Cleverly 336 Lab 294 Ind/Jordan 275 Con 114 Green 29 LD 7Ind Hold – Swing (May 2012) Ind-Lab 4.4%

Selston (Ashfield) Selston Ind 1180 Ind 294 Lab 172 UKIP 77 Con 52Selston Ind Hold – Swing (May 2015) Sel Ind -Ind 13.4%

Selston (Notts CC) Selston Ind 2054 Ind 794 Lab 355 UKIP 161 Con 103Selston Ind Hold – Swing (May 2013) Lab-Selston Ind 13%

Carnforth & Millhead (Lancaster) Con 1238 Lab 981 Green 242Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 4.8%

Salisbury ST Edmund & Millford (Wiltshire) Con 425 LD 262 Lab 232 Green 215 Ind 45Con GAIN from LD – Swing (May 2013) LD-Con 16.9%

Projected National Share (Based on the last 20 by elections fought by each party)

Con 34.1% Lab 28.5% LD 17.7% UKIP 10.1% SNP 4.5% Green 2.9%

Conclusion by Party

Conservatives – Rochford will put a cloud on an otherwise good night. They brushed aside the Labour challenge in Lancaster in a key Westminster marginal seat, and got a big gain against the Lib Dems in Wiltshire. The 5.6% lead over Labour on the projected share is also the biggest for some time. The Tory projected share across the by elections they fought this Thursday averaged over 36%, so there is scope to go higher if they can continue as they are and avoid too many results like Rochford.

Labour – Rochford is the one off they will rightly play for all it is worth. It is a good result, but they did not have any others last night. Their vote share projection has been going down noticeably in the last couple of weeks as well, in line with their struggles at national level. Next weeks Parliamentary by election in a seat they should win very easily, will be very interesting indeed.

Lib Dem – This is their worst week for a while and their defeat in Wiltshire is obviously the most notable aspect of this week for them, but they did not really rebuild a vote anywhere else where not competitive either this week. They will hope this is a blip rather than the start of a trend.

SNP – Not much to say, their victories over Labour suggest they are on course for gains from Labour at the Hollyrood elections, and on course to win big yet again.

Plaid Cymru – After they took a seat from Llais Gwynedd last week on a huge swing, their failure to beat an Independent and do the same this week is a poor result for Plaid, yet typical of the unpredictability of Gwynedd politics.