Moon Of Liberty Polling – February Polling Update

WAP

February Polling round up – Conservatives continue to dominate

Only Survation of the regularly reporting pollsters did not report in February and we had our first poll from Communicate Research this year. On Voting Intention every poll saw the Conservatives in a double digit lead ranging from 11% with Ipsos-Mori to 18% with YouGov and ICM. All pollsters have the Conservatives on 40% or more and Labour in the twenties, showing a stronger position for Theresa May and a weaker position for Jeremy Corbyn.

The lower lead from Ipsos-Mro fed into the seat projection, only they saw the projected Tory majority just short of three figures, all the others suggest the Conservative are on course for 350 seats or more on the new boundaries, thus ensuring a majority of 100 plus. ICM’s projected majority of 176 is a new record high projection, their projection of Labour on 141 seats is also a record low since I have been doing calculations on the new boundaries.

Labour’s position is particularly bad in the North West where swings to the Tories were consistently at 10% plus.The polling provides little solace anywhere except in London where they continue to be less hit than elsewhere. The SNP remain dominant in Scotland although on average they are now below 50% and the scope for the Tories to gain some seats in Scotland is certainly there. Labour are now consistently in third place behind the Tories on the Scottish breakdowns.

For the Lib Dems there continues to be little sign of their local election improvement showing up in national polls, although they have edged up into double figures in most cases. Ipsos-Mori offers them some hope giving them 14 seats on the new boundaries. The new boundaries will make their position more difficult, with strong targeting a result of around 20 seats, while by recent standards where pre-2015 they could get 50 plus, would actually be a very good result given the nature of the new boundaries. UKIP remain ahead of the Lib Dems on vote share, but there is little sign of them making any seat breakthroughs, which was backed up by the Stoke result last week.

The Conservatives average lead over is up from 12.8% in January to 14%. The average seat projection sees the Tory majority projection up to a record high of 136. Labour fall below 160 on 157. All the current numbers can be found here. A round up of this months polls is below.

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

February Polls

VOTING INTENTION

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 17%

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 44% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 18%

Opinium (13/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 27% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 5% – Con lead 13%

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 8% LD 13% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

Communciate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 41% Lab 26% UKIP 11% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 15%

SEAT PROJECTION (Based on regional patterns)

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 6 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 389 Lab 141 LD 8 SNP 34 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 176

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 346 Lab 177 LD 14 SNP 40 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 92

Communicate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 5 SNP 48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

________________________________________________________________

Advertisements

Com Res poll – A chill wind for Labour

WAP

As part of wider Labour leadership polling Communicate Research had produced another Voting Intention poll along with it and the results are sensational. The poll gives David Cameron his biggest poll lead for five years with any pollster leading by 14% on the UK voting intention. The details give the Tories a 15% lead in England. Regionally broken down the poll gives the Tories a 7.5% swing against Labour across both the Midlands and Wales. More dramatically, it also give the Tories an 8.5% swing across the North of England, an area that until now has held up for Labour.

There is very little change in Scotland with the SNP still polling at 49%. The Tory vote edging up is statistically enough to take Berwickshire from the SNP, the averages also give the Tories 3 more seats against the Lib Dems which will be far more difficult to take in reality. The swings across the North, Wales and the Midlands would give the Tories 66 gains from Labour leading to the Tories having 401 seats, a Majority of 152 based on the projection for current boundaries. This would leave Labour a rump of 166 seats, only one more than the Tories had after the 1997 thrashing.

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Communicate Research Poll 25/06/2015

Voting Intention – UK Wide Con 42% Lab 28% UKIP 9% LD 8% Green 6%

Voting Intention – Eng only Con 44% Lab 29% UKIP 10% LD 8% Green 6%

Voting Intention – Scot Only SNP 49% Lab 21% Con 17% Green 6% LD 4% UKIP 3%

Seat Projection (Based on regional patterns & Current Boudnaries)

Con 401 Lab 166 LD 5 SNP 55 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern ireland 18

Conservative Overall Majority 152

Conclusion

There has been talk of the fact the Tories could win a landslide if Jeremy Corbyn wins the leadership. Until now that has been theory. Of course polls like this at this point in the cycle have to be treated carefully and it is of course only one poll, but this is the first cold statistical evidence that such talk of a landslide in 5 years time is a very real possibility indeed, based purely on real numbers, not just talk, comment or theories.

By-Elections round up & Com Res poll

WAP

By-Elections

There were four by-elections this week. The first, unusually held on a Tuesday in the Orkney’s saw an ‘Orkney manifesto’ candidate elected. It will be interesting to see if this is the start of a trend of island focused candidates/parties taking over from traditional independents who have historically dominated the politics of the North Scottish Islands at local level.

On Thursday saw three by-elections. One in Durham which saw the first outing for the new North-East Party who finished second in Durham but not with enough to worry Labour’s North-East dominance just yet. The other two elections said more about the national picture. With Jeremy Corbyn excitement sweeping Labour, the strategy his supporters put forward of winning back Green and UKIP voters could to an extent be put to a small scale test. One election was in Witney, where the Tories were expected to win and did so, but there was a 20% Green vote for Labour to squeeze. In Cornwall the seat was a defense by UKIP, thus a big UKIP vote for Labour to squeeze if they are serious about winning these votes back.

In both cases Labour failed. The Tories held the Witney seat but it was the Lib Dems to jumped from fourth to second to squeeze these votes, and Labour’s vote actually fell. In Cornwall, the Tories gained the seat and yet again it was the Lib Dems who did a good job at squeezing the UKIP votes, not Labour. If there was excitement from supporters of minor parties about Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader, it could have showed on Thursday, it didn’t

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

18/08/2015

West Mainland (Orkney) Orkney Manifesto 593 Ind 446 Green 115Orkney Manifesto GAIN from Ind – Swing n/a

20/08/2015

Shotton & S Hetton (Durham) Lab 595 N-E Party 214 LD 107 UKIP 131 Con 67 Green 19.- Lab Hold – Swing n/a as no North-East Party candidate last time

Witney North (W Oxfordshire) –Con 264 LD 201 Green 136 Lab 114 UKIP 64Con Hold – Swing (From May 2012) Con-LD 12.9%

Camborne Pendarves (Cornwall) – Con 325 LD 311 Lab 220 UKIP 89 Mebyon Kernow 85 Green31 Ind 13CON GAIN FROM UKIP – Swing (May 2013) UKIP-Con 12%

National Projected Share (Based on last 20 by-elections fought by each party)

Con 33.2% Lab 29.8% LD 15.4% UKIP 10% Green 3.5%

Communicate Research Poll

Communicate Research latest poll put the Conservatives 11% ahead on voting intention. Again this does not point to enthusiasm amongst the general public for the prospect of a Jeremy Corbyn Labour leadership. It should be said this poll does see a decent swing to Labour in the south, The big Tory lead in the south is as I have said before difficult to model correctly. What this means is the poll probably has Labour doing better in the south than they really are, which means the Tory lead could be even bigger than reported. The poll also sees the Tories ahead of Labour in Scotland, 3 of the 4 most recent polls have also shown this. Due to small samples an anomaly is always possible on the region breakdown, however 3 out of 4 suggest there maybe more too it. The regional breakdown on seats would, in line with all other post election polls so far, see an increased Conservative Overall Majority

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Communicate Research Poll 17/08/2015

Vote Share UK Wide – Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4%

Seat Projection based on regional patterns 

Con 351 Lab 214 LD 6 UKIP 1 SNP 56 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northen Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority 52

Conclusion

What is interesting is that in local contests the Lib Dems are doing better and the Tory vote, while not soaring, is doing just enough to continue to hold key seats. The Lib Dem revival is not yet translating into the national picture. they are 7% higher in local contests than in the national polls, and the Tories are doing 7% less well in local contests than in National polls, Given this 7% gives the Tories a higher rating than in the national polls, this means there are Labour 2015 voters, now willing to back the Lib Dems in local contests, but say they would vote Tory in a General Election. The last few weeks has seen the Tories do much better when head to head with Labour which further backs this up. The Lib Dems can be cautiously confident when claiming their fightback, but we with no certainty that the improvement will translate into commons seats nationally.The Tories can be cautiously confident of their dominant position, but not overly so.

The SNP scored 48% in Scotland on the Com Res poll and are still dominating Scotland. The Cornwall and Witney by-elections are contests UKIP would have done much better in a couple of years ago, their position appears to remain stagnant. It is Labour who have the most to worry about. They will claim as they have no leader this is not a surprise. This is a hollow claim given the huge publicity they have had and claims of all this apparent excitement around Jeremy Corbyn with him packing 1000 seater halls around the country. Many people have a Corbyn win penciled in, they may be wrong, but are going to the polls on the assumption Corbyn will be the leader. The reality is amongst the quiet moderates in marginal seats, particularly in the shires is, there is no excitement for Labour, or the leader most of them now think will win, at all.