Moon Elections & Polling Round-Up

Moon Polling & Elections

WAP

LOCAL BY ELECTIONS

There were four by elections this week in different parts of the country but both created by the deaths of councillors who served at district and county level. All were Conservative defences and they held all four seats, however the result pattern were very different. Two of the by elections were in the Wyre area of Lancashire in the constituency of Cat Smith who is MP for Lancaster & Fleetwood. Although the Tories held both seats there were heavy swings towards the Labour Party who will be much the happier with both results

In stark contrast were the by elections in the Thanet area of Kent. Not only did the Tories hold both but saw their vote go up, in one case by over 23%. Some of this will be due to UKIP not standing in the district seat however the Tories had a swing in their favour against Labour in the county seat where UKIP did stand. The Kent results were much more impressive for the Conservatives.

There is little change on the projected share this week, the Tories lead over Labour nudges up slightly to 3.4% from 3.3% last week as the good result for both sides even themselves out. All the current polling and election projected share numbers can be found here

YOUGOV POLL

YouGov released the first Westminster voting intention poll this week. It recorded a 1% lead for Labour, slightly down from 2% in their last one before Christmas. Labour’s average poll lead is currently 1.7% and this one does not change the narrative of the two sides in general stalemate. The breakdown suggests Labour improvement in Scotland and better performance in the North of England is the reasons they are currently ahead. The Lib Dems edged up to 9% in this poll, something they will hope becomes a trend rather than a one off. The poll also gave Theresa May a 6% lead over Jeremy Corbyn as best PM, the same as their last poll.

All the current polling numbers can be found here

2ND EU REFERENDUM POLLING

Communicate Research released polling on support for a 2nd EU Referendum in the light of Nigel Farage’s suggestion that it may happen after all. The poll showed an 8% lead against having a 2nd Referendum 43% for and 51% against. YouGov found a similar result when it asked a similar question in November. The poll also asked the remain-leave question which came out 52% to 48% in favor of remain. The relevance of this while there is a majority against holding one anyway is dubious. Also remember many polls had a similar remain lead right up until the day itself and is within margin of error of the actual referendum result.

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MOON OF LIBERTY LOCAL BY ELECTION RESULTS

Wyre Rural (Lancashire)Con 1745 Lab 925 Green 237Con Hold – Swing (May 2017) Con-Lab 12%

Preesall (Wyre)Con 930 Lab 753Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 9.7%

Birchington & Thanet Rural (Kent) – Con 2534 Lab 865 LD 561 UKIP 357 Green 169Con Hold – Swing (May 2017) Lab-Con 1.5%

Thanet Villages (Thanet)Con 620 LD 313 Lab 206 Green 66 Ind 52Con Hold – Swing n/a as no LD last time – Con vote up 23.6% on May 2017

WESTMINSTER VOTING INTENTION POLL

YouGovLab 41% Con 40% LD 9% UKIP 3% Green 2%Lab Lead 1%

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Moon Editorial – The politics of 2018

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Reflections of the Moon

2017 was a crazy year in politics. It began with Theresa May in total control, calling an election that looked like a landslide and ended in failure as she lost her majority and ended up relying on the DUP to stay in Number 10. She regained some control at the end of the year with a successful end to the first phase Brexit deal and the polls showing the Conservatives statistically tied with Labour, when given the upheaval, you would expect Labour to be marching miles ahead. Much of the reason they are not has to do with their leader, who despite doing better than expected in the election, is a long way still from proving he is actually electable.

So what of 2018. The pattern could follow the same as the last six months. It will be dominated by Brexit yet again. There will be gamesmanship on both sides with at times May looking very weak. Then as time moves on and the March 2019 deadline looms, we will probably end up with a deal late in the day yet again. Whatever red lines are being thrown around now, it is likely to be a Norway style transition until December 2020, followed by a permanent Canada style deal, with some details tweaked. And yes, free movement may well stay until 2020, those with a problem with that will of course squeal if it happens. The base will be that little will change in relation to the Single Market aspects of the EU, but we will leave the rest of the EU’s activities (Which don’t forget accounts for roughly 80% of EU law)

This year will also see the completion of the withdrawal bill. The likely pattern is the Lords will pass a small number of amendments, will be rejected or a compromise found to allow the Lords to back down on the rest in the end. The bill should be passed and ready to be enacted into law by March 2019. 

In May the local elections will likely give Labour something of a boost. This year’s local elections are heavily biased towards urban cities and London, where if General Election patterns are sustained, scope for some major gains for Labour are possible.At local level signs the Lib Dems are recovering are also showing in local by election results, There is scope in London for them to recover ground lost during the tuition fee row years. t could be a tough night for the Conservatives, given the terrain which the elections will be fought, coming close to holding what they have would be a success.

Elsewhere housing will likely be the biggest focus but it is an area with no easy answers. Will action match the talk? Time will tell. Michael Gove will also continue his campaign to make the Tories take more notice of animal welfare issues. This is a good thing from a Conservative point of view, the specter of a Fox Hunting vote and the suggestion of backtracking on the Ivory pledge definitely lost the Tories key votes in June. 

Overall barring some big totally unexpected event it will likely be a fairly quiet year and I expect the polling to look much the same at the end of it as it does now, with no General Election and no change of leadership. What is more exciting is to watch the development of the influx of young Tories who are leading a social media fight back. Where will they take this in 2018, hopefully even further getting more people involved still to fight the barrage of hatred and abuse and Fake News that is the hallmark of Labour’s social media machine that needs desperately to be taken on and defeated.

2018 is in some ways the start of a five year cycle that will determine a lot about the future of Britain for a long time to come. While the window for those who want to stop Brexit looks small, it being done or not will have much longer effects. Then comes the next General Election, assuming it is in 2022, who will take control of post Brexit Britain, the Conservatives or the Hard left of Corbyn’s Labour, in a world where many more powers will be available to the winner, will also have long term consequences for the country. I have little doubt Britain outside the EU with a Conservative majority Government come 1st January 2023 is the best outcome. 

 

 

 

Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local by Elections 9th March 2017

WAP

Local by Elections

9th March Local by Election round-up

This weeks seven by Elections continued the general trends we have seen. The Tories had a very good night on the whole, their gain from Labour in Waltham Cross, Broxbourne was the third week in a row they had made a gain from Labour. Victory in Derwent in Derby shows continued strength in a marginal area of North Derby and although the gain was technically from UKIP due to this being a rolling ward that elects 3 members over 3 years, Labour won the ward in 2015 & 2016 so was as god as another victory against Labour as well.

The Lib Dems got one excellent gain from the Tories in West Oxfordshire but there was not huge progress anywhere else, once again showing the limitations to their improvement. They are still polling well enough for a 20% plus projected share though on what was a decent night for them.The story is less rosy for UKIP and Labour for whom this weeks results will heap more misery continuing the string of poor results. UKIP’s share was down everywhere, Labour’s was down everywhere except Harrow, which shows again London is performing in a more positive way for Labour than everywhere else in the country.

This week sees the Tories UK projected share lead over Labour increase to 6%. UKIP are now below 7% and the Lib Dems are down a bit but still above 20% on 20.4%. All the most recent numbers can be found here.

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Local by Election Results – 9th March 2017

Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield (W Oxfordshire) LD 567 Con 504 Lab 71 UKIP 38 Green 35LD GAIN FROM CONSwing (May 2016) Con-LD 15.1%

Roxbourne (Harrow)Lab 1554 Con 533 LD 240 UKIP 148Lab HoldSwing (May 2014) Con-Lab 7.1%

Hertford Castle (East Hertfordshire) Con 593 Lab 207 LD 188 Green 154 UKIP 65Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Lab-Con 5.5%

Exton (Rutland) Con 238 LD 123 UKIP 39Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-LD 2.5%

Red Horse (Straford Upon Avon)Con 476 LD 266 UKIP 92 Green 58Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-LD 14.6%

Derwent (Derby)Con 789 Lab 611 UKIP 537 LD 192CON GAIN FROM UKIP Swing (May 2016) UKIP-Con 2.7%

Waltham Cross (Broxbourne) Con 650 Lab 646 UKIP 200 LD 89CON GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-Con 5.6%

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Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local By Elections round-up

WAP

Local By Elections 02/02/2017

Mixed bag of results may provide pointers to Parliamentary by elections to come

This week saw three by elections with very different scenarios all producing very different results. In East Staffordshire the Conservatives held their seat with a swing to them against Labour outperforming their General election day position in line with current opinion polls. The two by elections in Rotherham also had differing scenarios. The Dinnington ward had UKIP defending a seat against Labour which they lost. The other in the Brimsworth & Catcliffe ward was a Labour defence with UKIP in a distant second place last time. However in the same vain as we saw in a seat in Sunderland a few weeks ago, the Liberal Democrats came through from nowhere to take this seat on a huge swing

Looking ahead these trends may give some pointers to the upcoming Parliamentary by elections in Copeland and Stoke On Trent. Regarding Copeland, The result in East Staffordshire is another example of where it is a Tory verses Labour battle, in most cases the Tories have been winning. This may bode well for a Tory gain in Copeland. As for Stoke, good and bad news for Labour, clearly UKIP are struggling to make an impact which if this trend continues, suggests a UKIP gain in Stoke is unlikely, however, where Labour have the seat but UKIP are second, these are the conditions for the Liberal Democrats to take advantage. On a higher Parliamentary by election turnout this may not prove to be the case, but the warning is definitely there from both Rotherham and Sunderland before it. As ever all the caveats in translating lower turnout local contests with parliamentary by elections apply.

The current projected national share sees the Conservative lead over Labour currently 7.4% with the Lib Dems closing into just 4.2% behind Labour for second place as a result of their huge win. All the current numbers can be found here. This weeks by election numbers are below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Election Results

Local By Elections 02/02/2017

Town (East Staffs) – Con 627 Lab 359 UKIP 214Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Lab-Con 1.3%

Dinnington (Rotherham)Lab 670 UKIP 303 Con 238 Ind 232 Ind 180 Ind 81 Green 78 LD 75LAB GAIN FROM UKIPSwing (May 2016) UKIP-Lab 9.3%

Brinsworth & Catcliffe (Rotherham)LD 2000 Lab 519 UKIP 389 Con 91 Green 30LD GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-LD 38.3%

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Moon Of Liberty Polling – ICM

WAP

Polling Update

ICM Poll 23/01/2017

New record low seat projection for Labour as position in the North gets worse

ICM’s new poll not only confirms recent trends suggesting a Tory majority of 100 plus but records a record low seat projection for Labour of just 145, the first time it has dipped below 150. On Voting intention the Tory share stays steady but the lead is up 2% due to Labour falling to 28% with slight 1% increases for the Lib Dems and UKIP. Labour’s big problem is their position in the North of England where the swing against the last General Election was 11.5%. In Yorkshire it was 8%. These regions under the new boundaries have the most seats for Labour to lose and it is there they are being hit the hardest.

The seat projection would give the Tories a majority of 142, the highest recorded since I began calculating on the new boundaries. While this may prove to be a one off, it suggests polling margin of error has shifted in the Tory direction again. Even if this is the new outlier, it shifts the averages further away from Labour and makes the mountain they already had to climb even bigger. It should also be said for many who are involved in or know about polling, ICM one of if not the most respected pollster.

The current Tory average voting intention lead moves up to 12.6% and their average seat projected majority is up from 124 to 128 on the back of this poll.All the up to date figures can be found here.

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

ICM Poll (23/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 42% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 10% Green 5% – Con lead 16%

Regional Based Seat Projection

Con 377 Lab 145 LD 8 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 142

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Moon Of Liberty Polling – Survation & Opinium

WAP

Opinium & Survation show a similar picture

Opinion polls have been released over the weekend by Survation and Opinium. Both show a similar picture on the voting intention. Opinium has the Conservative Party 8% ahead of Labour with Survation showing 10%. The reason for the lower leads than we have recently seen with YouGov and ICM is also similar in both have Labour in a better position in Scotland, indeed Survaton shows Labour ahead of the Tories in Scotland, sadly for Labour however, due to continued SNP strength, this is worth little in terms of seats.

Opinium only breaks down England, Scotland and Wales therefore I can not produce a seat projection like for like against the others as this requires regional English breakdown which Opinium do not provide. Survation shows a similar issue to ICM and YouGov in collapsing Labour support in the North and Yorkshire. As a result despite showing a 5% lower lead than the recent YouGov poll the Tories projected majority is almost identical (98 against 96 for YouGov.)

The changes reduce the Tories voting Intention average lead to 11.7% and the average projected Tory majority of all latest polls within the last three months (Based on regional breakdowns reduces from 120 to 112. This figure is for the new projected boundaries based on the boundary commission’s initial proposals. All the up to date figures can be found here 

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Opinium Poll (13/01/2017)

Voting Intention

 Con 38% Lab 30% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 3% – Con lead 8%

Survation Poll (14/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 39% Lab 29% UKIP 13% LD 10% Green 2% – Con lead 10%

Regional Seat Projection

Con 349 Lab 176 LD 5 SNP48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 98

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Moon Of Liberty Elections – by elections 12th Jan 2017

WAP

Local by Elections 12 Jan 2017

Lib Dems kick off the year with two big gains

The Liberal Democrats were the big winners from the first set of local council by elections on 2017. They scored a spectacular victory in Sunderland where they only got 4% of the vote back in May to gain what looked a safe Labour seat with a swing of 37.4%. They also made a gain from the Conservative’s in Three Rivers. This was less of a shock as the Tory Councillor being replaced had won in 2015 and this multi member ward had been won by the Liberal Democrats in 2016, so the gain was not as much of a surprise, but will add to their momentum and it also gives them overall control of Three Rivers Council. The wins take the Lib Dem projected share for local by elections above 21% and if these trends continue they may overtake Labour before too long All the current numbers for polling and by elections can be found here. The results for this weeks by elections in full are below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Local by elections 12/01

Sandhill (Sunderland)LD 824 Lab 458 UKIP 343 Con 184 Green 23LD GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-LD 35.7%

Gade Valley (Three Rivers)LD 626 Con 196 Lab 119 UKIP 45 Green 18LD GAIN FROM CONSwing (May 2016) Con-LD 2,7%

Projected national UK share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought by each party)

Con 35.3% Lab 26.9% LD 21.8% UKIP 8.1% SNP 4.4% Green 1.5% – Con lead 8.4%

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