Moon of Liberty Elections – Local by elections 03/08/2017

WAP

Local by Election Round-Up

It was a big week for Labour in this week’s local by elections. They made three gains with big vote share increases in Worthing, Margate and Swale. The reason for these big wins will also vindicate Jeremy Corbyn’s approach to Brexit as all three victories came as a result of Labour taking the bulk of the collapsing UKIP vote, or in the case of the Worthing gain against the Conservatives, taking the bulk of a large UKIP vote where the party did not stand. The evidence is leave referendum voters have been driving these victories, which follows on from the General Election where Labour took far more leave voters than many expected, a key part of why we ended up with a Hung Parliament. a dilemma for those critical of Corbyn and who want a more pro-EU line from Labour.

The Conservative did not see huge vote share drops and made a technical gain from Labour in Kings Lynne where the Labour councillor elected in second place in a multi member ward last time stood down, and the Tories who had most votes in the ward last time overall, maintained that to take the seat. The is why though there was a small swing to Labour, it was still a Conservative gain.

One trend that continues from the General election is than the two big parties remain dominant. UKIP’s collapse drove this weeks result but the Lib Dems are making no progress at all and the small Green vote collapsed where they stood this week too. The era of two party politics appears to be here to stay for the time being.

Labour’s big week sees them move in front on projected UK vote share for the first time since Corbyn became leader. They lead the Tories by 0.9% after this weeks results. All the current up to date numbers can be found on the Elections and Polling numbers page.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION RESULTS

Local by Elections 05/08/2017

Loughborough Spelthorpe (Charnwood) Lab 595 Con 591 LD 92 UKIP 29Lab HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-Lab 2.8%

Marine (Worthing)Lab 1032 Con 846 LD 246 Green 55LAB GAIN FROM CONSwing (May 2016) Con-Lab 17.1%

Margate Central (Thanet)Lab 454 Con 190 UKIP 52 LD 33 Ind 24 Green 23 Ind 13LAB GAIN FROM UKIPSwing (May 2015) UKIP-Lab 24.5%

Milton Regis (Swale)Lab 573 Con 255 UKIP 151 LD 86LAB GAIN FROM UKIPSwing (May 2015) UKIP-Lab 19.8%

Penshurst, Fordscombe & Chiddingstone (Sevenoaks)Con 438 LD 253 Lab 54Con HoldSwing (May 2015) LD-Con 2.6%

St Margarets & St Nicholas (Kings Lynne & W Norfolk) – Con 253 Lab 210 LD 173 Green 63CON GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2015 top vote) Con-Lab 1.7%

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Moon Of Liberty Polling – February Polling Update

WAP

February Polling round up – Conservatives continue to dominate

Only Survation of the regularly reporting pollsters did not report in February and we had our first poll from Communicate Research this year. On Voting Intention every poll saw the Conservatives in a double digit lead ranging from 11% with Ipsos-Mori to 18% with YouGov and ICM. All pollsters have the Conservatives on 40% or more and Labour in the twenties, showing a stronger position for Theresa May and a weaker position for Jeremy Corbyn.

The lower lead from Ipsos-Mro fed into the seat projection, only they saw the projected Tory majority just short of three figures, all the others suggest the Conservative are on course for 350 seats or more on the new boundaries, thus ensuring a majority of 100 plus. ICM’s projected majority of 176 is a new record high projection, their projection of Labour on 141 seats is also a record low since I have been doing calculations on the new boundaries.

Labour’s position is particularly bad in the North West where swings to the Tories were consistently at 10% plus.The polling provides little solace anywhere except in London where they continue to be less hit than elsewhere. The SNP remain dominant in Scotland although on average they are now below 50% and the scope for the Tories to gain some seats in Scotland is certainly there. Labour are now consistently in third place behind the Tories on the Scottish breakdowns.

For the Lib Dems there continues to be little sign of their local election improvement showing up in national polls, although they have edged up into double figures in most cases. Ipsos-Mori offers them some hope giving them 14 seats on the new boundaries. The new boundaries will make their position more difficult, with strong targeting a result of around 20 seats, while by recent standards where pre-2015 they could get 50 plus, would actually be a very good result given the nature of the new boundaries. UKIP remain ahead of the Lib Dems on vote share, but there is little sign of them making any seat breakthroughs, which was backed up by the Stoke result last week.

The Conservatives average lead over is up from 12.8% in January to 14%. The average seat projection sees the Tory majority projection up to a record high of 136. Labour fall below 160 on 157. All the current numbers can be found here. A round up of this months polls is below.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

February Polls

VOTING INTENTION

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 17%

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 44% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 18%

Opinium (13/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 27% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 5% – Con lead 13%

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 8% LD 13% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

Communciate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 41% Lab 26% UKIP 11% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 15%

SEAT PROJECTION (Based on regional patterns)

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 6 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 389 Lab 141 LD 8 SNP 34 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 176

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 346 Lab 177 LD 14 SNP 40 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 92

Communicate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 5 SNP 48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

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Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local by elections 02 Feb 2016

WAP

2nd Feb Local by elections round up

After last weeks loss in Copeland at Parliamentary level Labour suffered arguably an even more embarrassing loss in this weeks local by elections. Labour are using the high Jewish population in Kersal as the reason for their loss of a seat in traditional Labour heartland of Salford, however to lose a seat in such an area in opposition is a outstanding victory for the Conservatives on any level.

Elsewhere the Tories held their other two seats, one in Christchurch where they saw off a strong independent challenge, and in Hutton on Redcar & Cleveland council where the numbers looked ripe for another Lib Dem surge, but it did not materialise with both the Tory and Lib Dem vote up by a similar amount. There was a second by election in Redcar & Cleveland where the Lib Dems easily held Newcomon with a strong swing against Labour.

In short it was an excellent night for the Tories, a decent night for the Lib Dems and a very poor night for Labour, whose vote share was down everywhere on top of the loss of the Salford seat, and also the UKIP whose poor run of performances continue to where their local by election projected national share is down to just 7%

The results see the Conservatives increase their local by election projected share lead over Labour to 5.8% All the current polling and election numbers can be found here. All this weeks results are below.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Local by Elections – 2nd Feb 2017

Mudeford & Friars Cliff (Christchurch)Con 629 Ind 466 Lab 91 UKIP 85 Green 72Con HoldSwing n/a as no Ind last time

Kersal (Salford)Con 850 Lab 553 Ind 354 UKIP 182 Green 48 LD 39 CON GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-Con 12.7%

Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland)  – Con 860 LD 326 Lab 183 UKIP 129Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-LD 0.4%

Newcomen (Redcar & Cleveland)LD 426 Lab 259 UKIP 153 Ind 52 Ind 36 Con 29 LD HoldSwing (May 2015) Lab-LD 5.8%

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Moon Of Liberty Elections on 23rdFeb 2017

WAP

By Elections 23rd February 2017

Parliamentary by Elections – Stoke & Copeland

An historic event in Copeland took place as the Conservatives gained the seat, the first time Labour have not won there since the 1930’s. It is also the first by election gain for the Government from the main opposition since Angela Rumbold took Mitcham and Morden in 1982. The 6.5% swing is in line with current polling pointing to a general election landslide for the Tories of about 120. 

In Stoke there in terms of perception was some better news for Labour who held off a challenge from UKIP. However in context the result looks different. Labour lost 2% vote share which is only the eighth parliamentary by election the main opposition has lost vote share since the Second World War. Both the UKIP and Conservative share went up, suggesting little appetite for tactical voting by Tories towards UKIP.

Had that occurred there is a real chance Labour could have lost this seat, the irony is the strength of the Conservatives right now actually saved this seat for Labour, in the longer term that is not good news. The Tories may also be quite pleased Jeremy Corbyn has a win to cling on to, as they see him staying as their key to a 2020 landslide, these by elections are a further indication they may well be right.

Local by elections

The Liberal Democrats continued their improvement in local level by elections taking two seats from the Conservatives having not stood last time. Victories in Kettering and South hams, both areas that voted leave in the Referendum, add to the evidence of the Parliamentary by elections that in standard party political contests people are not dividing their vote along Referendum vote lines. The Conservatives easily held on to Chigwell Village. The parliamentary by elections suggest while there is a Lib Dem improvement, replicating some of their spectacular local by election gains at national level, will have it’s limits. At local level however, expect the Lib Dem improvements to continue for some time to come yet.

The projected national share at local level now has the Conservative lead down to 3.4% over Labour due to primarily poor showings against the Lib Dems dragging their vote share down. All the current numbers can be found here.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Parliamentary by elections – 23rd Feb 2017

Stoke On Trent CentralLab 7853 UKIP 5233 Con 5154 LD 2083 Green 294 Ind 137 MRLP 127 BNP 124 CPC 109 Ind 56Lab HoldSwing Lab-UKIP 2.1%

CopelandCon 13748 Lab 11601 LD 2252 UKIP 2025 Ind 811 Green 515 Ind 116CON GAIN FROM LABSwing Lab-Con 6.7%

Local by elections – 23rd Feb 2017

Barton (Kettering)LD 644 Con 337 UKIP 106 Green 42LD GAIN FROM CON Swing n/a as no LD last time

Charterlands (South Hams) LD 474 Con 404 Lab 110 Green 40 LD GAIN FROM CONSwing n/a as no LD last time

Chigwell Village (Epping Forest) Con 453 LD 143Con HoldSwing n/a as no LD last time

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Moon Of Liberty Polling – YouGov – Con lead by 11%, projected Majoirty of 54

WAP

Polling

YouGov joins the double digit lead club

In the last couple of weeks four polls were produced and the only one that did not have the Conservatives in a double digit lead was YouGov. The have now reported again and they join the double digit club giving the Conservatves an 11% lead on the headline voting intention. The relief for Labour is the breakdown unusually produces something very close to a uniform swing with all areas seeing changes of between 1.5% to 3% in the Conservatives favour. As a result there is not a huge loss of seats in any one area which helped keep the Conservative projected majority down form the 90’s we saw in last weeks other polls to 54 in this one.

The SNP are still reporting at 50% in Scotland and the Conservatives as in all last weeks polls are well ahead of Labour in second place there. The changes see the Conservatives average lead increase to 8.4% and the projected majority rise slightly to 66. All the updated figures can be found here. The breakdown of this poll is below. 

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

YouGov (26/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 3% – Con lead 11%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 351 Lab 212 LD 8 SNP 56 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 54

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Moon Of Liberty Polling – ICM Con lead by 16%

WAP

Polling

ICM – Con lead by 16% and poll projects a landslide majority of 164

ICM’s latest poll has electrified the prospect the new PM Theresa May could be increasingly tempted to call a snap election. The poll by the pollster whose final poll was closest to the correct result in the EU Referendum and has been the most accurate pollster in three out of the last four elections has given the Conservatives an enormous 16% lead over Labour. This would be a majority of over 100 even on Uniform National Swing.

The regional breakdown makes even worse reading for Labour. The Tory lead in England is 21% with a Tory lead in Wales as well. The Labour position is held up somewhat by slightly better figures in Scotland although with the SNP still polling 48% there it does not gain them any seats. The south & London region has a slightly lower swing suggesting Labour are still doing better in London, as well as the pollster traditional southern issue of trying to find a decent Tory sample in the South. Elsewhere it is carnage for Labour as would be set to lose a swathe of seats across the North and Midlands including all three seats in Stoke On Trent where they voted for Brexit big (One of these seats would be a UKIP Gain), and even Tony Blair’s old seat of Sedgefield could be under threat on these figures. Well known figures like Cat Smith and Vernon Coaker & Lillian Greenwood would also be under serious threat on these figures of not just losing, but losing big.

The regional breakdown has Labour down below 160 seats and the Tories winning a landslide majority of 164, above 400 seats, something Thatcher never did. Caveats of course, some local figures may hold on and this is only poll so far to suggest such an outcome is possible. In my Poll of polls the Tories increase their lead from 4.7% to 6.3%, this is aided by the fact BMG have not now reported for three months, a poll that was one of Labour’s better ones, thus while it will still show on the election figures page, it is not included in my poll of polls any longer until they report again. The poll of polls seat average sees the Tory projected majority up from 40 to 56. Again the BMG figures will still show on the page but will not be included in the average. All the latest figures can be found here. The figures for this ICM poll are below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

ICM 26/07/2016

VOTING INTENTION

Con 43% Lab 27% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con Lead 16%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 407 Lab 153 LD 10 SNP 55 Plaid Cymru 4 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority 164

 

Moon of Liberty Polling – Opinium

WAP

Polling

Opinium – Con lead by 6

Opinium have released a new poll for the Observer. Unfortunately there are no regional details to do a seat projection but this has no impact as there are not currently seat projection figures for Opinium as it stands in any case. The headline figure sees the Conservatives increase their lead over Labour from 5% to 6%. UKIP are down 2% in line with some other polling and evidence in local by elections that UKIP have fallen off since the brexit vote. the poll gives the Lib Dems just 6%, their lowest position yet. The change pushes the Conservatives lead on the poll of polls u from 4.6% to 4.7%, as there is no information to do a seat projection, the overall poll of polls seat projection remains unchanged at a Con majority of 40. all the latest figures can be found here

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Opinium 23/07/2016

Voting Intention – Con 37% Lab 31% UKIP 15% LD 66 Green 3% – Con lead 6%