Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local by elections 02 Feb 2016


2nd Feb Local by elections round up

After last weeks loss in Copeland at Parliamentary level Labour suffered arguably an even more embarrassing loss in this weeks local by elections. Labour are using the high Jewish population in Kersal as the reason for their loss of a seat in traditional Labour heartland of Salford, however to lose a seat in such an area in opposition is a outstanding victory for the Conservatives on any level.

Elsewhere the Tories held their other two seats, one in Christchurch where they saw off a strong independent challenge, and in Hutton on Redcar & Cleveland council where the numbers looked ripe for another Lib Dem surge, but it did not materialise with both the Tory and Lib Dem vote up by a similar amount. There was a second by election in Redcar & Cleveland where the Lib Dems easily held Newcomon with a strong swing against Labour.

In short it was an excellent night for the Tories, a decent night for the Lib Dems and a very poor night for Labour, whose vote share was down everywhere on top of the loss of the Salford seat, and also the UKIP whose poor run of performances continue to where their local by election projected national share is down to just 7%

The results see the Conservatives increase their local by election projected share lead over Labour to 5.8% All the current polling and election numbers can be found here. All this weeks results are below.




Local by Elections – 2nd Feb 2017

Mudeford & Friars Cliff (Christchurch)Con 629 Ind 466 Lab 91 UKIP 85 Green 72Con HoldSwing n/a as no Ind last time

Kersal (Salford)Con 850 Lab 553 Ind 354 UKIP 182 Green 48 LD 39 CON GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-Con 12.7%

Hutton (Redcar & Cleveland)  – Con 860 LD 326 Lab 183 UKIP 129Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-LD 0.4%

Newcomen (Redcar & Cleveland)LD 426 Lab 259 UKIP 153 Ind 52 Ind 36 Con 29 LD HoldSwing (May 2015) Lab-LD 5.8%



Moon Of Liberty Elections on 23rdFeb 2017


By Elections 23rd February 2017

Parliamentary by Elections – Stoke & Copeland

An historic event in Copeland took place as the Conservatives gained the seat, the first time Labour have not won there since the 1930’s. It is also the first by election gain for the Government from the main opposition since Angela Rumbold took Mitcham and Morden in 1982. The 6.5% swing is in line with current polling pointing to a general election landslide for the Tories of about 120. 

In Stoke there in terms of perception was some better news for Labour who held off a challenge from UKIP. However in context the result looks different. Labour lost 2% vote share which is only the eighth parliamentary by election the main opposition has lost vote share since the Second World War. Both the UKIP and Conservative share went up, suggesting little appetite for tactical voting by Tories towards UKIP.

Had that occurred there is a real chance Labour could have lost this seat, the irony is the strength of the Conservatives right now actually saved this seat for Labour, in the longer term that is not good news. The Tories may also be quite pleased Jeremy Corbyn has a win to cling on to, as they see him staying as their key to a 2020 landslide, these by elections are a further indication they may well be right.

Local by elections

The Liberal Democrats continued their improvement in local level by elections taking two seats from the Conservatives having not stood last time. Victories in Kettering and South hams, both areas that voted leave in the Referendum, add to the evidence of the Parliamentary by elections that in standard party political contests people are not dividing their vote along Referendum vote lines. The Conservatives easily held on to Chigwell Village. The parliamentary by elections suggest while there is a Lib Dem improvement, replicating some of their spectacular local by election gains at national level, will have it’s limits. At local level however, expect the Lib Dem improvements to continue for some time to come yet.

The projected national share at local level now has the Conservative lead down to 3.4% over Labour due to primarily poor showings against the Lib Dems dragging their vote share down. All the current numbers can be found here.




Parliamentary by elections – 23rd Feb 2017

Stoke On Trent CentralLab 7853 UKIP 5233 Con 5154 LD 2083 Green 294 Ind 137 MRLP 127 BNP 124 CPC 109 Ind 56Lab HoldSwing Lab-UKIP 2.1%

CopelandCon 13748 Lab 11601 LD 2252 UKIP 2025 Ind 811 Green 515 Ind 116CON GAIN FROM LABSwing Lab-Con 6.7%

Local by elections – 23rd Feb 2017

Barton (Kettering)LD 644 Con 337 UKIP 106 Green 42LD GAIN FROM CON Swing n/a as no LD last time

Charterlands (South Hams) LD 474 Con 404 Lab 110 Green 40 LD GAIN FROM CONSwing n/a as no LD last time

Chigwell Village (Epping Forest) Con 453 LD 143Con HoldSwing n/a as no LD last time


Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local By Elections round-up


Local By Elections 02/02/2017

Mixed bag of results may provide pointers to Parliamentary by elections to come

This week saw three by elections with very different scenarios all producing very different results. In East Staffordshire the Conservatives held their seat with a swing to them against Labour outperforming their General election day position in line with current opinion polls. The two by elections in Rotherham also had differing scenarios. The Dinnington ward had UKIP defending a seat against Labour which they lost. The other in the Brimsworth & Catcliffe ward was a Labour defence with UKIP in a distant second place last time. However in the same vain as we saw in a seat in Sunderland a few weeks ago, the Liberal Democrats came through from nowhere to take this seat on a huge swing

Looking ahead these trends may give some pointers to the upcoming Parliamentary by elections in Copeland and Stoke On Trent. Regarding Copeland, The result in East Staffordshire is another example of where it is a Tory verses Labour battle, in most cases the Tories have been winning. This may bode well for a Tory gain in Copeland. As for Stoke, good and bad news for Labour, clearly UKIP are struggling to make an impact which if this trend continues, suggests a UKIP gain in Stoke is unlikely, however, where Labour have the seat but UKIP are second, these are the conditions for the Liberal Democrats to take advantage. On a higher Parliamentary by election turnout this may not prove to be the case, but the warning is definitely there from both Rotherham and Sunderland before it. As ever all the caveats in translating lower turnout local contests with parliamentary by elections apply.

The current projected national share sees the Conservative lead over Labour currently 7.4% with the Lib Dems closing into just 4.2% behind Labour for second place as a result of their huge win. All the current numbers can be found here. This weeks by election numbers are below.




By Election Results

Local By Elections 02/02/2017

Town (East Staffs) – Con 627 Lab 359 UKIP 214Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Lab-Con 1.3%

Dinnington (Rotherham)Lab 670 UKIP 303 Con 238 Ind 232 Ind 180 Ind 81 Green 78 LD 75LAB GAIN FROM UKIPSwing (May 2016) UKIP-Lab 9.3%

Brinsworth & Catcliffe (Rotherham)LD 2000 Lab 519 UKIP 389 Con 91 Green 30LD GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-LD 38.3%


Moon Of Liberty Polling & Elections – YouGov, Ipsos-Mori & by election in Bromsgrove


Polling – YouGov & Ipsos-Mori

Current trend of a 100 plus Tory majority projections continue

Two polls were released on the 19th January, a new polls from YouGov and the first from Ipsos Mori since I began calculating the seat breakdown on the new boundaries. YouGov sees rotten news for Labour, Their voting intention down to 25% with a battering in the North of England and Yorkshire would see a projected Conservative majority of 144. Ipsos-Mori is not quite that bad, but still sees a Tory majority of 114 and similar figures in the North and Yorkshire regions, the only real difference is they lose slightly less in the Midlands and Wales than YouGov showed. Either way it continues to look very healthy for Theresa May and very poor for Jeremy Corbyn. On both sets of figures Copeland where there is an upcoming parliamentary by election would fall to the Tories, it will be interesting to see if the by election bares this out.

Both polls showed the SNP below 50% and while they remain well ahead in Scotland, they appear to be falling from their peaks in line with recent Scottish local by elections where their invincibility of a couple of years ago is not as strong as it was. Ipsos-Mori also has some good news for the Liberal Democrats with some stronger figures in London and the South, the first and so far only sign in national polling of their local by election successes since the Referendum coming through. It is the first poll under the new boundary calculation that gives them a double figure seat return.

The new figures increase the Tories average projected lead on Voting Intention to 12.2% and their average projected majority increases from 112 to 124. Labour are currently projected to be on 164 seats. All the up to date figures can be found here

By-Election in Bromsgrove

There was one by election this week in Bromsgrove and some happier new for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. While the Tories held this safe seat the incredibly low turnout enabled Labour to come surprisingly close to winning it with a swing in their favour of over 11%. This is out of line with recent performances and could be to do with the fact The Tories took their big majority in May 2015 for granted here. Labour will hope to the contrary that it is a turning point rather than a one off. The Lib Dems who have been very strong in local by elections recently did not stand here. The strong performance from Labour sees the Tories projected share lead over the Reds based on local by elections fall from 8.2% to 7.6%. All up to date figures can be found here The details of this by election and the two polls discussed are below.




Voting Intention

YouGov (19/01/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 3% – Con lead 17%

Ipsos-Mori (19/01/2017) – Con 43% Lab 31% UKIP 6% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 12%

Regional based seat Projection

YouGov – Con 372 Lab 156 LD 5 SNP44Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 144

Ipsos-Mori – Con 357 Lab 169 LD 11 SNP39 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 114


By Election 19/01/2017

Norton (Bromsgrove)Con 219 Lab 186 UKIP 82 Green 20Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-Lab 11.3%



Moon of Liberty News & Politics – News digest 07 Jan 2017


News Digest 07 Jan 2017 at 12.30 pm

Sky News – Michelle Obama makes her final speech as first lady

BBC News – Lord Heseltine fined for knocking cyclist off his bike

Sky News – Donald Trump hits out at ‘Political Witchhunt’ over Russian hacking

The Hill – Arnold Schwarzenegger hits back at Donald Trump after poor rating remark

Daily Telegraph – Shots fired at Fort Lauderdale airport, 5 now confirmed dead

Daily Express – Lord Fowler says the House of Lords will not sabotage Brexit

New Statesman – Could Ed Balls be Labour’s candidate in Copeland?

Business Insider – University of Cambridge academics refute Treasury’s Brexit figures as having ‘no basis in reality’

Newsweek – South Korea employ a ‘Twitter Officer’ to monitor Trump’s Twitter account

Newsweek – Norway will be the first to switch off FM Radio

NBC News – Despite objections, Trump’s victory is confirmed by Congress

Daily Telegraph – John Kerry blames British Parliament for inaction on Syria

Reuters – US ambassador to New Zealand says all envoys have been asked to quit in Inauguration Day

New York Times – CIA/FBI report accuses Vladimir Putin of directly ordering hacking campaign to help Trump

Daily Express – Alan Johnson tells BBC Any Questions free movement must end

Spectator comment – James Forsyth on what Theresa May must learn from David Cameron’s failed negotiation