Polls and local by elections


Local By elections 23/07

There were 5 local by elections this Thursday. Labour held their four safe seats that were up for grabs and the Liberal Democrats continued their recent good run by holding a marginal seat in Elmbridge with a good swing against the Conservatives. The results are below.

Mill Hill (Blackburn) Lab 505 UKIP 179 Con 109 LD 69Lab Hold – No UKIP Can last time so swing n/a

Croft Baker (NE Lincs) Lab 788 Con 513 LD 323 UKIP 318 TUSC 85 Green 66Lab Hold – Swing (From May 2015) Lab-Con 0.5%

Harrow Road (Westminster) Lab 1139 Con 334 UKIP 38Lab Hold – Swing (From May 2014) Con-Lab 6.6%

New Tredegar (Caerphilly) Lab 648 UKIP 90 Con 47Lab Hold – No UKIP or Con candidate last time, swing n/a

Long Ditton (Elmbridge) LD 770 Con 611 Green 79 UKIP 61LD Hold – Swing (From May 2012) Con-LD 4.5%

National projected share based on last 20 local by elections –

Con 33.6% Lab 32.5% LD 16.3% UKIP 11.1% Green 3,7%

Ipsos-Mori Poll

Mori have released their first voting intention poll since the General Election in May. The figures seen some erratic regional changes but the headline figures are as you were for the Tories and Labour. The Liberal Democrats move ahead of UKIP, in line with what we have been seeing in the by elections. The regional movements would see the Tory majority increase due to an improvement in the North of England and Scotland. Labour would win a few seats back in the south but lose most of the gains they made in the North-West. The breakdown would also see UKIP gaining Hartlepool from Labour.


Vote Share – Con 37% Lab 31% LD 10% UKIP 9% Green 8%

Seat projection (Changes compared to May 2015 General Election) – Con 345 (+14) Lab 227 (-4) LD 11 (+3) SNP 43 (-14) UKIP 2 (+1) Green 1 (NC) Plaid Cymru 3 (NC) Northern Irelands 18 (NC)

Conservative Majority of 40