Moon Of Liberty Elections – By Elections 21/07/2015


Local Council By Elections

11 By Elections on Thursday 21st July 2016

11 by elections took place on Thursday and with the Conservatives defending 7 of them it could have been a difficult night. Ironically the one they lost was one of the least likely on paper with the Lib Dems scoring a superb victory in Northampton from 3rd place last time. The Tories defended the other six seats however with strong vote share with impressive holds against the Lib Dems in Exmouth, East Devon and retaining a real marginal in Lancashire against Labout where Labour only needed a 2.3% swing to gain and failed to do so.

Labour held their two strongholds in London and Plaid Cymru saw off the Lab challenge in Gwynedd easily. UKIP were the big losers, while they were not competitive in any of the by elections where they stood, they were consistently down 5-7% on their General Election day performance and have fallen below 8% on the national projected share for the first time since I began producing these figures. Thursday’s results see the Conservatives lead over Labour on the projected share increase from 1.6% to 2%. All the current election/polling figures can be found here



Warlingham West  (Tandridge)Con 367 LD 218 UKIP 64Con Hold – Swing (May 2016) Con-LD 6.6%

Waunfawr (Gwynedd) Plaid Cymru 358 Lab 114Plaid Cymru Hold – Swing n/a – Plaid vote up 18.6% on May 2012

Hackney Central (Hackney)Lab 1354 Green 178 LD 113 Con 101 Ind 55Lab Hold – Swing (May 2014) Green-Lab 12.1%

Bellingham (Lewisham)Lab 940 Con 302 LD 180 People Before Profit 129 UKIP 104Lab Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-Con 1.4%

Southcote (Reading)Lab 934 Con 381 LD 77 Green 66Lab Hold – Swing (May 2016) Lab- Con 0.5%

Westone (Northampton)LD 583 Con 319 Lab 270 LD GAIN FROM CON – Swing (May 2015) Con-LD 32.6% – LD 3rd-1st Lab 2nd-3rd (Down 7%)

Honiton ST Michaels (East Devon)Con 362 E Dev Ind 211 Lab 197 UKIP 140Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-E Dev Ind 1.5%

Balderton South (Newark & Sherwood)Con 483 LD 103Con Hold – Swing n/a – Con vote up 26.4% from May 2015

Exmouth Littleham (East Devon)Con 547 LD 467 Lab 193Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-LD 0.6%

Chorley Rural North (Lancashire)Con 1144 Lab 1042 UKIP 303 LD 125Con Hold – Swing (May 2013) Lab-Con 0.3%

Great Wyrley Town (S Staffs)Con 357 Lab 230 UKIP 114Con Hold Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 2%

UK Projected share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought)

Con 32.7% Lab 30.7% LD 18.1% UKIP 7.6% Green 4.4% SNP 4.4%Con Lead 2%



Numbers Update – by elections & two polls


By Elections

This week saw seven local by elections. The main winners were the Conservatives with 3 gains, including one from Labour in a seat the Tories had never won before, they also had a spectacular victory in Epsom where the Tories finished 5th in 2013, but won this week.

Local By Elections 19/11/2015

Watton (Norfolk) Con 822 Ind 793 Lab 105 Green 81Con GAIN from UKIP – Swing n/a as no UKIP candidate.

South Smallburgh (Norfolk) LD 1383 Con 697 UKIP 219 Lab 103 Green 52LD Hold – Swing (May 2013) Con-LD 13.1%

Llanaelhaearn (Gywnedd) Plaid Cymru 200 Llais Gwynedd 112 Ind 99Plaid Cymru GAIN from Llais Gwynedd – Swing (May 2012) LG-PC 29.7%

Dewi (Gwynedd) PC 189 Lab 110 LD 19PC Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-PC 1%

Kidwelly (Carmarthenshire) Lab 288 PC 248 Ind 177 People 1st 58 Con 53 Ind 28Lab Hold – Swing n/a as no PC candidate last time.

Aylesford Green (Ashford) Con 110 UKIP 109 Lab 106 Ind 92 LD 42 Green 10Con GAIN from Lab – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 5.5%

Epsom West (Surrey) Con 619 Resident Association 591 LD 588 Lab 578 UKIP 168 Green 58Con GAIN from LD – Swing (May 2013) LD-Con 8.1%, Con were 5th in 2013.

Projected Nation share (Based on last 20 local by elections fought)

Con 33% Lab 28.6% LD 19.3% UKIP 10.1% SNP 4.3% Green 2.8%

Opinion Polls

ICM and Ipsos-Mori have released their October voting intention polls. Both see increased Conservative leads and both regionally project a healthy Conservative Majority. In line with what we are seeing in the by elections with the Tories in control where it matters and Labour continuing to do badly, especially in the Midlands where most of the key seats are. The Liberal Democrats will be disappointed to see there is still no breakthrough in the national polls considering their improved performance at local level.

ICM 17/11/2015

Voting Intention UK – Con 39% Lab 33% UKIP 12% LD 7% Green 4%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 353 Lab 210 LD 6 SNP 58 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18Con Majority 56

Ipsos-Mori 19/11/2015

Voting Intention UK – Con 41% Lab 34% LD 7% UKIP 7% Green 4%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 358 Lab 206 LD 6 SNP 58 Plaid Cymru 2 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18Con Majority 66

Conclusion by party

Conservative – An excellent set of number for the Tories, 3 gains in the by elections and still well ahead in the polls and seat projections where it matters. David Cameron remain in complete control of the UK political scene right now.

Labour – This is Labour’s worst week for sometime. With terrorism in the headlines, Jeremy Corbyn appears particularly weak when anything of that nature comes up. I have always said Corbyn cannot win a General Election, I have seen nothing to come even close to changing my mind.

Lib Dems – Another decent week locally, a good result in Norfolk, although a poor result losing in Epsom in Surrey. Their poll ratings remain at the same low level they got in May too. Mixed news for the Lib Dems but at least at local level the pointers are to some decent results in May 2016.

UKIP – Struggling to find an identity post May, UKIP’s problem is they are not competing where they should be. The Mori poll has them down on 7% nationally in line with evidence they have fallen back since May. The Parliamentary by-election in Oldham West will be a big test of where UKIP are, it is a by election they should be competing in, current trends suggest they will fall well short.

SNP – No local elections this week but Scottish polling suggests they are still on course to match or better their performance last May in the Scottish Parliament elections. Doing so will mean further advances as the SNP got 45% in the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, so they would be up by a further 5% at least if they repeat their General Election performance. Bad news for Labour who would be the main losers.

Plaid Cymru – Plaid are another big warning for Labour. They have done well in Welsh local elections recently, the potential for them to score some upsets at Labour’s expense in the Welsh Assembly elections looks to be on the increase. Plaid are the wild card that could really spoil Jeremy Corbyn’s night next May, as holding Wales is something Labour are banking on.

Local By-Elections 09 July 2015


This week saw an array of local council by elections which generally confirmed the recent patterns. No seats changed hands and incumbency won the day, although this was a technicality in The Scottish seat in North Lanarkshire as the seat was held by an SNP finishing third in the previous election where three members were elected, however Labour actually has far more votes last time. The results are as follows, with the ward name followed by the Council the ward is for in brackets.

Thorniewood (North Lanarkshire) Scottish National Party 1,555 (47% +23%), Labour 1,410 (43% -28%), Conservative 149 (5% unchanged), Scottish Socialist Party 81 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Green 51 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Scottish Christian Party 33 (1%, no candidate in 2012), UKIP 29 (1%, no candidate in 2012) – SNP Hold Swing (Compared to average of the 3 candidates last time) Lab-SNP 25.5%

Morfa Nefyn (Gwynedd) Plaid Cymru 315 (72% -5%), Llais Gwynedd 123 (28% +5%) – Plaid Cymru Hold Swing Plaid-Llais 5%

Brentford (Houndslow) Labour 1,292 (54% +8%), Conservatives 664 (28% +13%), Green 209 (9% -4%), Liberal Democrat 116 (5% -1%), UKIP 113 (5% -7%) – Lab hold Swing Lab-Con 2.5%

Central ST Leonards (Hastings) Labour 481 (44% -9%), Conservative 259 (24% +11%), Indepedent 184 (17% +10%), UKIP 77 (7% -9%), Green 75 (7% -1%), Liberal Democrat 17 (2% -1%) – Lab Hold Swing Lab-Con 10%

ST Helens (Hastings) Conservative 663 (44% +4%), Labour 557 (37% +3%), Liberal Democrat 136 (9% +5%), UKIP 120 (8% -14%), Green 48 (3%, no candidate in 2014) – Con Hold Swing Lab-Con 0.5%

Old Hastings & Tressel (East Sussex) Labour 961 (57% +8%), Conservative 368 (22% +6%), UKIP 174 (10% -12%), Green 149 (9% +1%), Liberal Democrat 48 (3% -1%) – Lab Hold Swing Con-Lab 1%

Spring Hill (Hyndburn) Labour 778 (55% +5%), Conservative 475 (34% unchanged), UKIP 137 (10% -6%), Green 17 (1%, no candidate in 2014) – Lab Hold Swing Con-Lab 2.5%

Newton (Sandwell) Labour 1,152 (59% +14%), Conservative 452 (23% +8%), UKIP 310 (16% -14%), Green 36 (2%, no candidate in 2014) – Lab Hold Swing Con-Lab 3%

Projected National share of the vote based on last 20 local by elections

Con 36% Lab 34% UKIP 11.1% LD 11% Green 3.9%


All in all nothing much appears to have changed. generally small swings have been the pattern so far with the exception of Scotland, where the SNP are still in total control. Things will change once Labour and the Lib Dems have a new leader in place, right now though I expect more of the same in the coming weeks.