Moon Of Liberty Polling – February Polling Update

WAP

February Polling round up – Conservatives continue to dominate

Only Survation of the regularly reporting pollsters did not report in February and we had our first poll from Communicate Research this year. On Voting Intention every poll saw the Conservatives in a double digit lead ranging from 11% with Ipsos-Mori to 18% with YouGov and ICM. All pollsters have the Conservatives on 40% or more and Labour in the twenties, showing a stronger position for Theresa May and a weaker position for Jeremy Corbyn.

The lower lead from Ipsos-Mro fed into the seat projection, only they saw the projected Tory majority just short of three figures, all the others suggest the Conservative are on course for 350 seats or more on the new boundaries, thus ensuring a majority of 100 plus. ICM’s projected majority of 176 is a new record high projection, their projection of Labour on 141 seats is also a record low since I have been doing calculations on the new boundaries.

Labour’s position is particularly bad in the North West where swings to the Tories were consistently at 10% plus.The polling provides little solace anywhere except in London where they continue to be less hit than elsewhere. The SNP remain dominant in Scotland although on average they are now below 50% and the scope for the Tories to gain some seats in Scotland is certainly there. Labour are now consistently in third place behind the Tories on the Scottish breakdowns.

For the Lib Dems there continues to be little sign of their local election improvement showing up in national polls, although they have edged up into double figures in most cases. Ipsos-Mori offers them some hope giving them 14 seats on the new boundaries. The new boundaries will make their position more difficult, with strong targeting a result of around 20 seats, while by recent standards where pre-2015 they could get 50 plus, would actually be a very good result given the nature of the new boundaries. UKIP remain ahead of the Lib Dems on vote share, but there is little sign of them making any seat breakthroughs, which was backed up by the Stoke result last week.

The Conservatives average lead over is up from 12.8% in January to 14%. The average seat projection sees the Tory majority projection up to a record high of 136. Labour fall below 160 on 157. All the current numbers can be found here. A round up of this months polls is below.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

February Polls

VOTING INTENTION

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 17%

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 44% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 18%

Opinium (13/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 27% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 5% – Con lead 13%

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 8% LD 13% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

Communciate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 41% Lab 26% UKIP 11% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 15%

SEAT PROJECTION (Based on regional patterns)

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 6 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 389 Lab 141 LD 8 SNP 34 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 176

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 346 Lab 177 LD 14 SNP 40 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 92

Communicate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 5 SNP 48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

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Moon Of Liberty Polling – ICM

WAP

Polling Update

ICM Poll 23/01/2017

New record low seat projection for Labour as position in the North gets worse

ICM’s new poll not only confirms recent trends suggesting a Tory majority of 100 plus but records a record low seat projection for Labour of just 145, the first time it has dipped below 150. On Voting intention the Tory share stays steady but the lead is up 2% due to Labour falling to 28% with slight 1% increases for the Lib Dems and UKIP. Labour’s big problem is their position in the North of England where the swing against the last General Election was 11.5%. In Yorkshire it was 8%. These regions under the new boundaries have the most seats for Labour to lose and it is there they are being hit the hardest.

The seat projection would give the Tories a majority of 142, the highest recorded since I began calculating on the new boundaries. While this may prove to be a one off, it suggests polling margin of error has shifted in the Tory direction again. Even if this is the new outlier, it shifts the averages further away from Labour and makes the mountain they already had to climb even bigger. It should also be said for many who are involved in or know about polling, ICM one of if not the most respected pollster.

The current Tory average voting intention lead moves up to 12.6% and their average seat projected majority is up from 124 to 128 on the back of this poll.All the up to date figures can be found here.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

ICM Poll (23/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 42% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 10% Green 5% – Con lead 16%

Regional Based Seat Projection

Con 377 Lab 145 LD 8 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 142

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Moon Of Liberty Polling – Survation & Opinium

WAP

Opinium & Survation show a similar picture

Opinion polls have been released over the weekend by Survation and Opinium. Both show a similar picture on the voting intention. Opinium has the Conservative Party 8% ahead of Labour with Survation showing 10%. The reason for the lower leads than we have recently seen with YouGov and ICM is also similar in both have Labour in a better position in Scotland, indeed Survaton shows Labour ahead of the Tories in Scotland, sadly for Labour however, due to continued SNP strength, this is worth little in terms of seats.

Opinium only breaks down England, Scotland and Wales therefore I can not produce a seat projection like for like against the others as this requires regional English breakdown which Opinium do not provide. Survation shows a similar issue to ICM and YouGov in collapsing Labour support in the North and Yorkshire. As a result despite showing a 5% lower lead than the recent YouGov poll the Tories projected majority is almost identical (98 against 96 for YouGov.)

The changes reduce the Tories voting Intention average lead to 11.7% and the average projected Tory majority of all latest polls within the last three months (Based on regional breakdowns reduces from 120 to 112. This figure is for the new projected boundaries based on the boundary commission’s initial proposals. All the up to date figures can be found here 

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Opinium Poll (13/01/2017)

Voting Intention

 Con 38% Lab 30% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 3% – Con lead 8%

Survation Poll (14/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 39% Lab 29% UKIP 13% LD 10% Green 2% – Con lead 10%

Regional Seat Projection

Con 349 Lab 176 LD 5 SNP48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 98

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Moon Of Liberty News & Politics – News Digest

Blue_Moon2

News Digest – 11th Jan 2017 @ 2.00 pm

BBC Sport – Historic Kempton Park racecourse could be closed for new housing

Spectator Comment – A maximum wage is Corbyn’s most stupid idea yet – Brendan O’Neill

CNN – Confirmation hearing for Attourney general nominee Jeff Sessions begins

BBC – Look at inequality in the UK shows it has not got wider in the last decade

The Moon Of Liberty Editorial – The Moon editor Kevin Alcock on May, Corbyn and Trump v Hollywood

Reuters – Mexican Foreign Minister says there is now way Mexico will pay for Donald Trump’s wall

Telegraph Comment– Punishing Britain over Brexit could hasten the EU’s own end – Peter Foster

London Evening Standard – Switzerland wins key ECHR ruling on Muslim girls and mixed swimming lessons

The Guardian – Meryl Streep took aim at MMA as well as Trump, UFC Owner Dana White responds

The Guardian – Boris Johnson says Moscow is up to all kinds of dirty tricks

New Statesman – Guy Verhofstadt’s attempt to form alliance between Liberals and Italy’s 5 Star movement fails, much to UKIP’s delight

Moon Of Liberty Polling – Breakdown of ICM Poll & Cardiff University Welsh poll

Breibart London – Senior US Republican Bob Corker says Britain is in the front seat for a US trade deal

Independent Comment – Labour’s rotten day – Tom Peck

BBC News – Snapchat sets up International office in London

Daily Express – Ex Australian PM Tony Abbott backs Britain over Brexit

Order Order – UK Industrial production surges

The Sun Comment – Suing Newspapers for telling the truth? no thank you – Rod Little

Political Betting Comment – On the Northern Ireland situation – Lucian Fletcher

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Moon Of Liberty Polling – ICM Con lead by 14% & Cardiff Uni Welsh Poll

WAP

POLLING

Conservative’s keep 14% lead in first ICM 2017 poll

ICM have released the first poll of 2017 with fieldwork having been done in the New Year and the Conservatives maintain a 14% lead over Labour with the Lib Dems, who had a post Richmond by election bounce last time, down 2% back into single figures. Despite a similar lead over Labour to the YouGov poll the regional breakdown sees a bigger meltdown in the North West and in Yorkshire for Labour, which would see them lose more seats handing the Tories a bigger majority of 142. The SNP are on 42% in Scotland, considerably less than YouGov recorded.It means the Tory average lead is 14.5% and the projected Tory majority increases to 120. All the up to date figures can be found here

Cardiff University Welsh Poll

Cardiff University have released a Wales only poll. The Westminster voting intention sees Labour lead by 5% in Wales, they won by 10 at the 2015 General Election so the move to the Conservatives would see the Tories gain four seats that are notionally Labour on the new boundaries.Full details including Welsh Assembly polling can be found at the Cardiff University website here

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

ICM Poll (09/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 42% Lab 28% UKIP 12% LD 9% Green 4% – Con Lead 14%

Regional Breakdown Seat Projection

YouGov (01/01/2017) – Con 371 Lab 165 LD 7 SNP45 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 142

Cardiff University Poll (Wales Only)

Westminster Voting Intention

Lab 33% Con 28% UKIP 13% Plaid Cymru 13% LD 9%Labour lead 5%

Represents a swing of 2.5% from Lab to Con in Wales against May 2015

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Moon Of Liberty Polling – Four polls to update

WAP

Polling

Theresa May remains in control

With four National opinion polls in the last two weeks Theresa May remains in total control and her honeymoon period continues as Labour’s problems show no real signs of turning in the polls. Over the four polls the Conservatives have an average advantage of over 10% with only YouGov recording a single digit Conservative lead. This also shows in the seat projections with ICM, TNS & Ipsos-Mori producing regional projections of a Tory Majority in the 90’s in contrast to the majority of 36 with YouGov.

The three polls with double digit leads suggests the North is the biggest problem. Both in the North-East and North-West reduced support for Labour appears to be a product of the post Brexit scenario where many Labour heartlands voted against the advice of most Labour politicians. The red team could be losing both ways as there also appear to be the stirrings of Lib Dem improvement in London at Labour’s expense. Their pro-EU stance may be losing them support in the North, while their perceived loop warm support for the EU may be seeing them begin to lose some ground in London too, a double edged sword.

In Scotland there are no signs of SNP support slowing down or any respite for Labour. The SNP are on over 48% on average across the four polls, with the Tories very definitely now ahead of Labour there too. regardless of whether you believe YouGov, the other three, or somewhere in the middle is the real position, it is very clear that unless they are all totally wrong, the Tories remain in an extraordinary position six years into Government.The Tory lead on the Average Poll of polls goes up to 7.8% and the average seat projections would give the Tories a slightly reduced majoirty of 62 against 66 before these polls, due to YouGov and the last ICM poll predicting a 100+ majority landslide. Al the latest numbers can be found here

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori (17/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 45% Lab 34% LD 7% UKIP 6% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 371 Lab 194 LD 6 SNP 56 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 94

ICM (16/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 40% Lab 28% UKIP 14% LD 8% Green 4% – Con Lead 12%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 374 Lab 190 LD 7 SNP 54 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority 98

YouGov (11/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 38% Lab 31% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 7%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 343 Lab 219 LD 9 SNP 57 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 36

TNS (11/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 39% Lab 26% UKIP 14% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 13%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 370 Lab 196 LD 9 SNP 53 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 90

 

Moon Of Liberty Polling – YouGov – Con lead by 12 – Con Maj of 66

WAP

Polling

YouGov – Con lead by 12%

Today’s YouGov poll again like ICM yesterday sees the Conservatives in a double digit lead against Labour on the headline figure. The slightly better news for Labour was the much of this with YouGov is down to a collapse in Scotland (11%) which ICM did not see, as a result the seat projection does not look as bad as they only has one seat to lose in Scotland, and the swings elsewhere were not quite as bad as with ICM.

A big factor was that the swing in the midlands was only 2.5% where Labour still have the most to lose. As a result the losses to the Conservatives would be kept to losing just 26 seats to the Tories on these figures (as well as their one in Scotland to the SNP.) The SNP would also gain Orkney & Shetland from the Lib Dems but lose Roxburgh & Berwickshire to the Tories.  This would still see a comfortable Tory majority of 66, but nowhere near the landslide projected by the ICM poll.

The changes see the Tories increase their poll of polls headline lead to 6.9%, but the poll of polls seat projection comes down slightly from a Tory majority of 66 to a Tory majority of 62. All the current numbers can be found here. The breakdown of this YouGov poll is below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

YouGov (27/07/2016)

Voting Intention

Con 40% Lab 28% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 12%

Seat Projection

Con 358 Lab 205 LD 7 SNP 57 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 66