Moon Of Liberty Polling – February Polling Update

WAP

February Polling round up – Conservatives continue to dominate

Only Survation of the regularly reporting pollsters did not report in February and we had our first poll from Communicate Research this year. On Voting Intention every poll saw the Conservatives in a double digit lead ranging from 11% with Ipsos-Mori to 18% with YouGov and ICM. All pollsters have the Conservatives on 40% or more and Labour in the twenties, showing a stronger position for Theresa May and a weaker position for Jeremy Corbyn.

The lower lead from Ipsos-Mro fed into the seat projection, only they saw the projected Tory majority just short of three figures, all the others suggest the Conservative are on course for 350 seats or more on the new boundaries, thus ensuring a majority of 100 plus. ICM’s projected majority of 176 is a new record high projection, their projection of Labour on 141 seats is also a record low since I have been doing calculations on the new boundaries.

Labour’s position is particularly bad in the North West where swings to the Tories were consistently at 10% plus.The polling provides little solace anywhere except in London where they continue to be less hit than elsewhere. The SNP remain dominant in Scotland although on average they are now below 50% and the scope for the Tories to gain some seats in Scotland is certainly there. Labour are now consistently in third place behind the Tories on the Scottish breakdowns.

For the Lib Dems there continues to be little sign of their local election improvement showing up in national polls, although they have edged up into double figures in most cases. Ipsos-Mori offers them some hope giving them 14 seats on the new boundaries. The new boundaries will make their position more difficult, with strong targeting a result of around 20 seats, while by recent standards where pre-2015 they could get 50 plus, would actually be a very good result given the nature of the new boundaries. UKIP remain ahead of the Lib Dems on vote share, but there is little sign of them making any seat breakthroughs, which was backed up by the Stoke result last week.

The Conservatives average lead over is up from 12.8% in January to 14%. The average seat projection sees the Tory majority projection up to a record high of 136. Labour fall below 160 on 157. All the current numbers can be found here. A round up of this months polls is below.

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

February Polls

VOTING INTENTION

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 17%

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 44% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 18%

Opinium (13/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 27% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 5% – Con lead 13%

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 8% LD 13% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

Communciate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 41% Lab 26% UKIP 11% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 15%

SEAT PROJECTION (Based on regional patterns)

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 6 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 389 Lab 141 LD 8 SNP 34 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 176

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 346 Lab 177 LD 14 SNP 40 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 92

Communicate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 5 SNP 48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

________________________________________________________________

Advertisements

Moon Of Liberty Polling & Elections – YouGov, Ipsos-Mori & by election in Bromsgrove

WAP

Polling – YouGov & Ipsos-Mori

Current trend of a 100 plus Tory majority projections continue

Two polls were released on the 19th January, a new polls from YouGov and the first from Ipsos Mori since I began calculating the seat breakdown on the new boundaries. YouGov sees rotten news for Labour, Their voting intention down to 25% with a battering in the North of England and Yorkshire would see a projected Conservative majority of 144. Ipsos-Mori is not quite that bad, but still sees a Tory majority of 114 and similar figures in the North and Yorkshire regions, the only real difference is they lose slightly less in the Midlands and Wales than YouGov showed. Either way it continues to look very healthy for Theresa May and very poor for Jeremy Corbyn. On both sets of figures Copeland where there is an upcoming parliamentary by election would fall to the Tories, it will be interesting to see if the by election bares this out.

Both polls showed the SNP below 50% and while they remain well ahead in Scotland, they appear to be falling from their peaks in line with recent Scottish local by elections where their invincibility of a couple of years ago is not as strong as it was. Ipsos-Mori also has some good news for the Liberal Democrats with some stronger figures in London and the South, the first and so far only sign in national polling of their local by election successes since the Referendum coming through. It is the first poll under the new boundary calculation that gives them a double figure seat return.

The new figures increase the Tories average projected lead on Voting Intention to 12.2% and their average projected majority increases from 112 to 124. Labour are currently projected to be on 164 seats. All the up to date figures can be found here

By-Election in Bromsgrove

There was one by election this week in Bromsgrove and some happier new for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. While the Tories held this safe seat the incredibly low turnout enabled Labour to come surprisingly close to winning it with a swing in their favour of over 11%. This is out of line with recent performances and could be to do with the fact The Tories took their big majority in May 2015 for granted here. Labour will hope to the contrary that it is a turning point rather than a one off. The Lib Dems who have been very strong in local by elections recently did not stand here. The strong performance from Labour sees the Tories projected share lead over the Reds based on local by elections fall from 8.2% to 7.6%. All up to date figures can be found here The details of this by election and the two polls discussed are below.

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Voting Intention

YouGov (19/01/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 3% – Con lead 17%

Ipsos-Mori (19/01/2017) – Con 43% Lab 31% UKIP 6% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 12%

Regional based seat Projection

YouGov – Con 372 Lab 156 LD 5 SNP44Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 144

Ipsos-Mori – Con 357 Lab 169 LD 11 SNP39 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 114

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Election 19/01/2017

Norton (Bromsgrove)Con 219 Lab 186 UKIP 82 Green 20Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-Lab 11.3%

________________________________________________________________

 

Moon Of Liberty Polling – Four polls to update

WAP

Polling

Theresa May remains in control

With four National opinion polls in the last two weeks Theresa May remains in total control and her honeymoon period continues as Labour’s problems show no real signs of turning in the polls. Over the four polls the Conservatives have an average advantage of over 10% with only YouGov recording a single digit Conservative lead. This also shows in the seat projections with ICM, TNS & Ipsos-Mori producing regional projections of a Tory Majority in the 90’s in contrast to the majority of 36 with YouGov.

The three polls with double digit leads suggests the North is the biggest problem. Both in the North-East and North-West reduced support for Labour appears to be a product of the post Brexit scenario where many Labour heartlands voted against the advice of most Labour politicians. The red team could be losing both ways as there also appear to be the stirrings of Lib Dem improvement in London at Labour’s expense. Their pro-EU stance may be losing them support in the North, while their perceived loop warm support for the EU may be seeing them begin to lose some ground in London too, a double edged sword.

In Scotland there are no signs of SNP support slowing down or any respite for Labour. The SNP are on over 48% on average across the four polls, with the Tories very definitely now ahead of Labour there too. regardless of whether you believe YouGov, the other three, or somewhere in the middle is the real position, it is very clear that unless they are all totally wrong, the Tories remain in an extraordinary position six years into Government.The Tory lead on the Average Poll of polls goes up to 7.8% and the average seat projections would give the Tories a slightly reduced majoirty of 62 against 66 before these polls, due to YouGov and the last ICM poll predicting a 100+ majority landslide. Al the latest numbers can be found here

________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori (17/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 45% Lab 34% LD 7% UKIP 6% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 371 Lab 194 LD 6 SNP 56 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 94

ICM (16/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 40% Lab 28% UKIP 14% LD 8% Green 4% – Con Lead 12%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 374 Lab 190 LD 7 SNP 54 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority 98

YouGov (11/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 38% Lab 31% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 7%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 343 Lab 219 LD 9 SNP 57 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 36

TNS (11/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 39% Lab 26% UKIP 14% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 13%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 370 Lab 196 LD 9 SNP 53 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 90

 

Moon Polling – Ipsos-Mori

WAP

Polling

Ipsos-Mori poll – 17th Feb 2016

Labour close the gap to 6% but projected Tory majority unchanged at 64

VOTING INTENTION

Ipsos-Mori have released their February poll showing a different trendline to ICM and Com Res that were out over the last few days. The headline voting intention figure sees the Tory lead over Labour down from 9% in January to 6% this month. The poll detail shows the old South of England problem returning giving Labour a big swing in the south, as against modest to medium swing to the Tories everywhere else against the May 2015 result. This along with the sample in the raw data being heavily skewed towards public sector workers is why Labour’s position holds up better than in other polls.

The 7% swing in the south (excluding London) would only have Labour picking up 13 seats in the south against the Tories which is easily wiped out by Tory gains in other regions. This shows the problem Labour will have even if they did very well in the south but not elsewhere as this poll suggests, as in the main they need huge swings to gain a serious number of seats there. The seat projection actually sees the Tories get exactly the same number of seats as in the January poll with a net increase of 26 seats on 357, meaning an overall majority of 64. In Scotland the SNP are recorded at 55%, and would take all 59 seats Scottish seats as a result. The poll is another showing no breakthrough for the Lib Dems.

EU REFERENDUM

The poll also asked the EU Referendum question and that too sees no change from January with Remain maintaining it’s 19% lead. The dynamics described above may suggest why this poll shows no change while the other poll that is done by phone, Com Res, saw a substantial swing to the leave campaign. The skew in this poll towards public sector workers and the high SNP figure mean an increase within groups known to be more likely to vote for remain. The likely exaggeration of Labour position in the south also may help the remain figure where a bigger Tory lead would have closed the gap.

CONCLUSION

While there is evidence to suggest this poll probably exaggerates Labour (In terms of headline voting percentage at least, though not so much in terms of seat projection) and the Remain in the EU positions, this is a poll for both to hold onto. Labour can use it to challenge the assumption that the Tories have increased their lead, and remain supporters can point to this poll to claim the rot of support moving to the leave campaign has stopped. A poll to challenge perceptions, that are sometimes more important in what happens next than the reality. Also of course while this poll of the last few is the outlier, the lesson of May 2015 is that we should not assume the outlier is always wrong.Whatever the details, this poll is good news for Remain, and some relief for Labour and Jeremy Corbyn.

THE NUMBERS (Poll of Poll averages)

Voting Intention – The Tory lead over Labour falls from 9% to 8.5%

Seat Projection – The Tory projected Overall Majority remains unchanged at 78

EU Referendum – The Remain lead in the EU Referendum phone poll average is unchanged at 13.5%

All the updated numbers can be found here. A breakdown of the Ipsos-Mori poll is below.

__________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori Poll (17/02/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 39% Lab 33% LD 6% UKIP 12% Green 3% – Con lead 6%

REGIONAL SEAT PROJECTION

Con 357 Lab 204 LD 7 SNP 59 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority of 64

EU REFERENDUM

Remain 55% Leave 36%Remain lead 19%

__________________________________________________________

 

Moon Polling – Ipsos Mori

Blue_Moon2

WAP

Polling

Ipsos-Mori Poll 28/01/2016

Tories increase their lead to nine, projected Majority of 64

Ipsos-Mori have released their first voting intention poll of 2016 and the headline figures make more bleak reading for Labour. The Conservative lead has increased from 7% to 9%. The detail sees the pollsters southern problem return, seeing a 7.5% swing to Labour in the South of England (Excluding London) which is clearly nonsense. The rest is in line with what you would expect, Labour doing a little bit better in London, but the Tories doing better than their General Election performance in the North, Midlands, Yorkshire & Wales. Scotland again sees the Tories in second place, although the 34% share the Tories are given, only 10% behind the SNP is clearly an outlier. The breakdown of the poll is below.

_______________________________________________

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori (28/01/2016)

UK Voting Intention – Con 40% Lab 31% LD 7% UKIP 11% Green 4% – Con lead 9%

Regional Seat Projection (Current boundaries)

Con 357 Lab 218 LD 7 SNP 45 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 64

_______________________________________________

Conclusion 

Caution is required with this poll due to the elements that are out of line with other polling. On the seat projection it is likely that the SNP are too low as the Tory share in Scotland exaggerates the number of seats the Tories would take there, Labour are too high due to the nonsensical south of England figures, and the Tories projection is about OK given there Scottish gains they would not get in reality are offset by the southern losses to Labour they would not lose in reality. As a result the eventual projected Tory majority is in the 60-80 trend we have seen with the majority of pollsters, even if it took a round about way of getting there.

The Numbers

As a result of this poll the average Tory poll lead over Labour increases from 8.1% to 8.4%. The poll of polls projected Tory majority is unchanged at 70. All the updated figures can be found here.

 

 

Numbers Update – by elections & two polls

WAP

By Elections

This week saw seven local by elections. The main winners were the Conservatives with 3 gains, including one from Labour in a seat the Tories had never won before, they also had a spectacular victory in Epsom where the Tories finished 5th in 2013, but won this week.

Local By Elections 19/11/2015

Watton (Norfolk) Con 822 Ind 793 Lab 105 Green 81Con GAIN from UKIP – Swing n/a as no UKIP candidate.

South Smallburgh (Norfolk) LD 1383 Con 697 UKIP 219 Lab 103 Green 52LD Hold – Swing (May 2013) Con-LD 13.1%

Llanaelhaearn (Gywnedd) Plaid Cymru 200 Llais Gwynedd 112 Ind 99Plaid Cymru GAIN from Llais Gwynedd – Swing (May 2012) LG-PC 29.7%

Dewi (Gwynedd) PC 189 Lab 110 LD 19PC Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-PC 1%

Kidwelly (Carmarthenshire) Lab 288 PC 248 Ind 177 People 1st 58 Con 53 Ind 28Lab Hold – Swing n/a as no PC candidate last time.

Aylesford Green (Ashford) Con 110 UKIP 109 Lab 106 Ind 92 LD 42 Green 10Con GAIN from Lab – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 5.5%

Epsom West (Surrey) Con 619 Resident Association 591 LD 588 Lab 578 UKIP 168 Green 58Con GAIN from LD – Swing (May 2013) LD-Con 8.1%, Con were 5th in 2013.

Projected Nation share (Based on last 20 local by elections fought)

Con 33% Lab 28.6% LD 19.3% UKIP 10.1% SNP 4.3% Green 2.8%

Opinion Polls

ICM and Ipsos-Mori have released their October voting intention polls. Both see increased Conservative leads and both regionally project a healthy Conservative Majority. In line with what we are seeing in the by elections with the Tories in control where it matters and Labour continuing to do badly, especially in the Midlands where most of the key seats are. The Liberal Democrats will be disappointed to see there is still no breakthrough in the national polls considering their improved performance at local level.

ICM 17/11/2015

Voting Intention UK – Con 39% Lab 33% UKIP 12% LD 7% Green 4%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 353 Lab 210 LD 6 SNP 58 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18Con Majority 56

Ipsos-Mori 19/11/2015

Voting Intention UK – Con 41% Lab 34% LD 7% UKIP 7% Green 4%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 358 Lab 206 LD 6 SNP 58 Plaid Cymru 2 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18Con Majority 66

Conclusion by party

Conservative – An excellent set of number for the Tories, 3 gains in the by elections and still well ahead in the polls and seat projections where it matters. David Cameron remain in complete control of the UK political scene right now.

Labour – This is Labour’s worst week for sometime. With terrorism in the headlines, Jeremy Corbyn appears particularly weak when anything of that nature comes up. I have always said Corbyn cannot win a General Election, I have seen nothing to come even close to changing my mind.

Lib Dems – Another decent week locally, a good result in Norfolk, although a poor result losing in Epsom in Surrey. Their poll ratings remain at the same low level they got in May too. Mixed news for the Lib Dems but at least at local level the pointers are to some decent results in May 2016.

UKIP – Struggling to find an identity post May, UKIP’s problem is they are not competing where they should be. The Mori poll has them down on 7% nationally in line with evidence they have fallen back since May. The Parliamentary by-election in Oldham West will be a big test of where UKIP are, it is a by election they should be competing in, current trends suggest they will fall well short.

SNP – No local elections this week but Scottish polling suggests they are still on course to match or better their performance last May in the Scottish Parliament elections. Doing so will mean further advances as the SNP got 45% in the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, so they would be up by a further 5% at least if they repeat their General Election performance. Bad news for Labour who would be the main losers.

Plaid Cymru – Plaid are another big warning for Labour. They have done well in Welsh local elections recently, the potential for them to score some upsets at Labour’s expense in the Welsh Assembly elections looks to be on the increase. Plaid are the wild card that could really spoil Jeremy Corbyn’s night next May, as holding Wales is something Labour are banking on.

Ipsos-Mori – the first post pig gate poll.

WAP

Ipsos Mori have released a poll at the end of a week of embarrassing headlines for the Prime Minister relating to the publishing by the Daily Mail of the more sensation parts of a new unauthorised biography of Cameron by Lord Ashcroft. I won’t go into detail but the most shocking thing in the book involves an initiation ceromany and a dead pig that an unmamed MP claims Cameron took part in. It needs to be stressed there is no hard evidence and even the book and it’s authors make clear they cannot know for sure if it happened. The book also appears to confirm Cameron did smoke cannabis. This is something Cameron has never confirmed or denied.

After a week of such headlines the Prime Minister will be pleased to see this Mori poll does not appear to have done him or the Tory party much damage. The Conservative headline score is up on the last Mori poll to 39%. Labour are also up to 34% primarily to taking support from the Greens. Mori unlike other polls, also continue to have UKIP well down and below the Lib Dems, albeit with the Lib Dems on only 8%. There is no conference bounce for the Lib Dems seen in this poll.

The regional breakdowns suggest some good news for Jeremy Corbyn in Wales where the Labour vote appears to be doing a little better. This was seen in the two previous polls last week published by Com Res and YouGov. However, In Scotland the improvement seen in those other polls is not matched, the Scottish sample has the SNP on 53% and the Tories ahead of Labour. In England the news continues to be weak for Labour, the Tories are doing better in the north and the poll sees a 5% swing to the Tories in the midlands (Against the May result), an absolutely key battleground where there has been no evidence at all that Corbyn is anything but a disaster for the Labour vote and brand. Labour see an improvement in the south, I have written before though about how this should be treated with caution when other English trends are going the other way due to the difficulties of sampling a 27% Tory lead there. The other problem Labour has is even if this is true, they still need to do much better before making any serious southern gains.

Another finding of note in the wider poll is Jeremy Corbyn’s personal satisfaction rating of minus 3. Mori have asked this same question about leaders for many decades, Corbyn is the first leader of the opposition to ever start (This is Mori’s first poll since he was elected) with a minus rating.

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Ipsos Mori (24/09/2015)

Voting Intention – Con 39% Lab 34% LD 8% UKIP 7% Green 4%

SNP Vote share in Scotland – 53%

Regional seat projection – Con 358 Lab 205 SNP 56 LD 8 UKIP 1 Green 1 NI 18Con Majority of 64

Conclusion

In a sense this poll demonstrates the folly of the Corbyn strategy. On the face of it 34% is not a disaster and as those votes are being taken from the Greens this is actually part of Corbyn’s approach, to try and reach out to those on the left and bring them into the Labour fold. However when broken down the gains come in areas that make little difference, where as where the Tories are making gains are in areas that can actually affect seats, and thus the outcome of the election. a 5% lead is a small swing to Labour nationally but it is not helping them due to where the votes are coming from. They must find a way to take Tory votes especially in the midlands. So after a tough week for David Cameron, he will be relieved by this poll, piggate has not really done him any damage and he is still beating a weak Labour Party.