Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local by Elections 9th March 2017

WAP

Local by Elections

9th March Local by Election round-up

This weeks seven by Elections continued the general trends we have seen. The Tories had a very good night on the whole, their gain from Labour in Waltham Cross, Broxbourne was the third week in a row they had made a gain from Labour. Victory in Derwent in Derby shows continued strength in a marginal area of North Derby and although the gain was technically from UKIP due to this being a rolling ward that elects 3 members over 3 years, Labour won the ward in 2015 & 2016 so was as god as another victory against Labour as well.

The Lib Dems got one excellent gain from the Tories in West Oxfordshire but there was not huge progress anywhere else, once again showing the limitations to their improvement. They are still polling well enough for a 20% plus projected share though on what was a decent night for them.The story is less rosy for UKIP and Labour for whom this weeks results will heap more misery continuing the string of poor results. UKIP’s share was down everywhere, Labour’s was down everywhere except Harrow, which shows again London is performing in a more positive way for Labour than everywhere else in the country.

This week sees the Tories UK projected share lead over Labour increase to 6%. UKIP are now below 7% and the Lib Dems are down a bit but still above 20% on 20.4%. All the most recent numbers can be found here.

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Local by Election Results – 9th March 2017

Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield (W Oxfordshire) LD 567 Con 504 Lab 71 UKIP 38 Green 35LD GAIN FROM CONSwing (May 2016) Con-LD 15.1%

Roxbourne (Harrow)Lab 1554 Con 533 LD 240 UKIP 148Lab HoldSwing (May 2014) Con-Lab 7.1%

Hertford Castle (East Hertfordshire) Con 593 Lab 207 LD 188 Green 154 UKIP 65Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Lab-Con 5.5%

Exton (Rutland) Con 238 LD 123 UKIP 39Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-LD 2.5%

Red Horse (Straford Upon Avon)Con 476 LD 266 UKIP 92 Green 58Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-LD 14.6%

Derwent (Derby)Con 789 Lab 611 UKIP 537 LD 192CON GAIN FROM UKIP Swing (May 2016) UKIP-Con 2.7%

Waltham Cross (Broxbourne) Con 650 Lab 646 UKIP 200 LD 89CON GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-Con 5.6%

________________________________________________________________

 

 

Moon Of Liberty Polling – February Polling Update

WAP

February Polling round up – Conservatives continue to dominate

Only Survation of the regularly reporting pollsters did not report in February and we had our first poll from Communicate Research this year. On Voting Intention every poll saw the Conservatives in a double digit lead ranging from 11% with Ipsos-Mori to 18% with YouGov and ICM. All pollsters have the Conservatives on 40% or more and Labour in the twenties, showing a stronger position for Theresa May and a weaker position for Jeremy Corbyn.

The lower lead from Ipsos-Mro fed into the seat projection, only they saw the projected Tory majority just short of three figures, all the others suggest the Conservative are on course for 350 seats or more on the new boundaries, thus ensuring a majority of 100 plus. ICM’s projected majority of 176 is a new record high projection, their projection of Labour on 141 seats is also a record low since I have been doing calculations on the new boundaries.

Labour’s position is particularly bad in the North West where swings to the Tories were consistently at 10% plus.The polling provides little solace anywhere except in London where they continue to be less hit than elsewhere. The SNP remain dominant in Scotland although on average they are now below 50% and the scope for the Tories to gain some seats in Scotland is certainly there. Labour are now consistently in third place behind the Tories on the Scottish breakdowns.

For the Lib Dems there continues to be little sign of their local election improvement showing up in national polls, although they have edged up into double figures in most cases. Ipsos-Mori offers them some hope giving them 14 seats on the new boundaries. The new boundaries will make their position more difficult, with strong targeting a result of around 20 seats, while by recent standards where pre-2015 they could get 50 plus, would actually be a very good result given the nature of the new boundaries. UKIP remain ahead of the Lib Dems on vote share, but there is little sign of them making any seat breakthroughs, which was backed up by the Stoke result last week.

The Conservatives average lead over is up from 12.8% in January to 14%. The average seat projection sees the Tory majority projection up to a record high of 136. Labour fall below 160 on 157. All the current numbers can be found here. A round up of this months polls is below.

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

February Polls

VOTING INTENTION

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 17%

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 44% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 18%

Opinium (13/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 27% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 5% – Con lead 13%

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 8% LD 13% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

Communciate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 41% Lab 26% UKIP 11% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 15%

SEAT PROJECTION (Based on regional patterns)

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 6 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 389 Lab 141 LD 8 SNP 34 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 176

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 346 Lab 177 LD 14 SNP 40 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 92

Communicate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 5 SNP 48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

________________________________________________________________

Moon Of Liberty Elections on 23rdFeb 2017

WAP

By Elections 23rd February 2017

Parliamentary by Elections – Stoke & Copeland

An historic event in Copeland took place as the Conservatives gained the seat, the first time Labour have not won there since the 1930’s. It is also the first by election gain for the Government from the main opposition since Angela Rumbold took Mitcham and Morden in 1982. The 6.5% swing is in line with current polling pointing to a general election landslide for the Tories of about 120. 

In Stoke there in terms of perception was some better news for Labour who held off a challenge from UKIP. However in context the result looks different. Labour lost 2% vote share which is only the eighth parliamentary by election the main opposition has lost vote share since the Second World War. Both the UKIP and Conservative share went up, suggesting little appetite for tactical voting by Tories towards UKIP.

Had that occurred there is a real chance Labour could have lost this seat, the irony is the strength of the Conservatives right now actually saved this seat for Labour, in the longer term that is not good news. The Tories may also be quite pleased Jeremy Corbyn has a win to cling on to, as they see him staying as their key to a 2020 landslide, these by elections are a further indication they may well be right.

Local by elections

The Liberal Democrats continued their improvement in local level by elections taking two seats from the Conservatives having not stood last time. Victories in Kettering and South hams, both areas that voted leave in the Referendum, add to the evidence of the Parliamentary by elections that in standard party political contests people are not dividing their vote along Referendum vote lines. The Conservatives easily held on to Chigwell Village. The parliamentary by elections suggest while there is a Lib Dem improvement, replicating some of their spectacular local by election gains at national level, will have it’s limits. At local level however, expect the Lib Dem improvements to continue for some time to come yet.

The projected national share at local level now has the Conservative lead down to 3.4% over Labour due to primarily poor showings against the Lib Dems dragging their vote share down. All the current numbers can be found here.

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Parliamentary by elections – 23rd Feb 2017

Stoke On Trent CentralLab 7853 UKIP 5233 Con 5154 LD 2083 Green 294 Ind 137 MRLP 127 BNP 124 CPC 109 Ind 56Lab HoldSwing Lab-UKIP 2.1%

CopelandCon 13748 Lab 11601 LD 2252 UKIP 2025 Ind 811 Green 515 Ind 116CON GAIN FROM LABSwing Lab-Con 6.7%

Local by elections – 23rd Feb 2017

Barton (Kettering)LD 644 Con 337 UKIP 106 Green 42LD GAIN FROM CON Swing n/a as no LD last time

Charterlands (South Hams) LD 474 Con 404 Lab 110 Green 40 LD GAIN FROM CONSwing n/a as no LD last time

Chigwell Village (Epping Forest) Con 453 LD 143Con HoldSwing n/a as no LD last time

________________________________________________________________

Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local By Elections round-up

WAP

Local By Elections 02/02/2017

Mixed bag of results may provide pointers to Parliamentary by elections to come

This week saw three by elections with very different scenarios all producing very different results. In East Staffordshire the Conservatives held their seat with a swing to them against Labour outperforming their General election day position in line with current opinion polls. The two by elections in Rotherham also had differing scenarios. The Dinnington ward had UKIP defending a seat against Labour which they lost. The other in the Brimsworth & Catcliffe ward was a Labour defence with UKIP in a distant second place last time. However in the same vain as we saw in a seat in Sunderland a few weeks ago, the Liberal Democrats came through from nowhere to take this seat on a huge swing

Looking ahead these trends may give some pointers to the upcoming Parliamentary by elections in Copeland and Stoke On Trent. Regarding Copeland, The result in East Staffordshire is another example of where it is a Tory verses Labour battle, in most cases the Tories have been winning. This may bode well for a Tory gain in Copeland. As for Stoke, good and bad news for Labour, clearly UKIP are struggling to make an impact which if this trend continues, suggests a UKIP gain in Stoke is unlikely, however, where Labour have the seat but UKIP are second, these are the conditions for the Liberal Democrats to take advantage. On a higher Parliamentary by election turnout this may not prove to be the case, but the warning is definitely there from both Rotherham and Sunderland before it. As ever all the caveats in translating lower turnout local contests with parliamentary by elections apply.

The current projected national share sees the Conservative lead over Labour currently 7.4% with the Lib Dems closing into just 4.2% behind Labour for second place as a result of their huge win. All the current numbers can be found here. This weeks by election numbers are below.

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Election Results

Local By Elections 02/02/2017

Town (East Staffs) – Con 627 Lab 359 UKIP 214Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Lab-Con 1.3%

Dinnington (Rotherham)Lab 670 UKIP 303 Con 238 Ind 232 Ind 180 Ind 81 Green 78 LD 75LAB GAIN FROM UKIPSwing (May 2016) UKIP-Lab 9.3%

Brinsworth & Catcliffe (Rotherham)LD 2000 Lab 519 UKIP 389 Con 91 Green 30LD GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-LD 38.3%

________________________________________________________________

Moon Of Liberty Polling – ICM

WAP

Polling Update

ICM Poll 23/01/2017

New record low seat projection for Labour as position in the North gets worse

ICM’s new poll not only confirms recent trends suggesting a Tory majority of 100 plus but records a record low seat projection for Labour of just 145, the first time it has dipped below 150. On Voting intention the Tory share stays steady but the lead is up 2% due to Labour falling to 28% with slight 1% increases for the Lib Dems and UKIP. Labour’s big problem is their position in the North of England where the swing against the last General Election was 11.5%. In Yorkshire it was 8%. These regions under the new boundaries have the most seats for Labour to lose and it is there they are being hit the hardest.

The seat projection would give the Tories a majority of 142, the highest recorded since I began calculating on the new boundaries. While this may prove to be a one off, it suggests polling margin of error has shifted in the Tory direction again. Even if this is the new outlier, it shifts the averages further away from Labour and makes the mountain they already had to climb even bigger. It should also be said for many who are involved in or know about polling, ICM one of if not the most respected pollster.

The current Tory average voting intention lead moves up to 12.6% and their average seat projected majority is up from 124 to 128 on the back of this poll.All the up to date figures can be found here.

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

ICM Poll (23/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 42% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 10% Green 5% – Con lead 16%

Regional Based Seat Projection

Con 377 Lab 145 LD 8 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 142

________________________________________________________________

 

Moon Of Liberty Polling – ICM Con lead by 14% & Cardiff Uni Welsh Poll

WAP

POLLING

Conservative’s keep 14% lead in first ICM 2017 poll

ICM have released the first poll of 2017 with fieldwork having been done in the New Year and the Conservatives maintain a 14% lead over Labour with the Lib Dems, who had a post Richmond by election bounce last time, down 2% back into single figures. Despite a similar lead over Labour to the YouGov poll the regional breakdown sees a bigger meltdown in the North West and in Yorkshire for Labour, which would see them lose more seats handing the Tories a bigger majority of 142. The SNP are on 42% in Scotland, considerably less than YouGov recorded.It means the Tory average lead is 14.5% and the projected Tory majority increases to 120. All the up to date figures can be found here

Cardiff University Welsh Poll

Cardiff University have released a Wales only poll. The Westminster voting intention sees Labour lead by 5% in Wales, they won by 10 at the 2015 General Election so the move to the Conservatives would see the Tories gain four seats that are notionally Labour on the new boundaries.Full details including Welsh Assembly polling can be found at the Cardiff University website here

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

ICM Poll (09/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 42% Lab 28% UKIP 12% LD 9% Green 4% – Con Lead 14%

Regional Breakdown Seat Projection

YouGov (01/01/2017) – Con 371 Lab 165 LD 7 SNP45 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 142

Cardiff University Poll (Wales Only)

Westminster Voting Intention

Lab 33% Con 28% UKIP 13% Plaid Cymru 13% LD 9%Labour lead 5%

Represents a swing of 2.5% from Lab to Con in Wales against May 2015

________________________________________________________________

Moon Of Liberty Polling – YouGov

WAP

POLLING

1st 2017 poll gives the Tories a 15% lead

The first poll from YouGov of 2017 gives the Conservatives a poll lead of 15%, although both Labour and the Tories are down on YouGov’s last poll with the Lib Dems slightly up and continuing their recovery since the Richmond Park by election. UKIP are also up 2% to 14% which keeps them ahead of the Lib Dems. 

In Scotland the SNP score 52% and continue to be well in the lead but the Conservatives are now well clear of Labour in second north of the border. The regional breakdown is particularly bad for Labour in the north where the Tories score a huge 8% swing against May 2015. The LD’s are up to 15% in the south outside of London which is the basis of their revival. London continues to be Labour’s best region.

This is the first poll I have calculated on what are the projected new boundaries and it gives the Tories a majority of 98. The details are below. As the seat method is new these figures are the averages at the moment. The averages page will be updated as we get new polling information I can calculate on the new boundaries but at present, old comparisons are irrelevant.

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

YOUGOV POLL 01/01/2017

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION  

Con 39% Lab 24% UKIP 14% LD 12% Green 4%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 349 Lab 173 LD 7 SNP 48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18 

Con Overall Majority 98

________________________________________________________________