Moon Of Liberty Polling – ICM Con lead by 16%



ICM – Con lead by 16% and poll projects a landslide majority of 164

ICM’s latest poll has electrified the prospect the new PM Theresa May could be increasingly tempted to call a snap election. The poll by the pollster whose final poll was closest to the correct result in the EU Referendum and has been the most accurate pollster in three out of the last four elections has given the Conservatives an enormous 16% lead over Labour. This would be a majority of over 100 even on Uniform National Swing.

The regional breakdown makes even worse reading for Labour. The Tory lead in England is 21% with a Tory lead in Wales as well. The Labour position is held up somewhat by slightly better figures in Scotland although with the SNP still polling 48% there it does not gain them any seats. The south & London region has a slightly lower swing suggesting Labour are still doing better in London, as well as the pollster traditional southern issue of trying to find a decent Tory sample in the South. Elsewhere it is carnage for Labour as would be set to lose a swathe of seats across the North and Midlands including all three seats in Stoke On Trent where they voted for Brexit big (One of these seats would be a UKIP Gain), and even Tony Blair’s old seat of Sedgefield could be under threat on these figures. Well known figures like Cat Smith and Vernon Coaker & Lillian Greenwood would also be under serious threat on these figures of not just losing, but losing big.

The regional breakdown has Labour down below 160 seats and the Tories winning a landslide majority of 164, above 400 seats, something Thatcher never did. Caveats of course, some local figures may hold on and this is only poll so far to suggest such an outcome is possible. In my Poll of polls the Tories increase their lead from 4.7% to 6.3%, this is aided by the fact BMG have not now reported for three months, a poll that was one of Labour’s better ones, thus while it will still show on the election figures page, it is not included in my poll of polls any longer until they report again. The poll of polls seat average sees the Tory projected majority up from 40 to 56. Again the BMG figures will still show on the page but will not be included in the average. All the latest figures can be found here. The figures for this ICM poll are below.



ICM 26/07/2016


Con 43% Lab 27% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con Lead 16%


Con 407 Lab 153 LD 10 SNP 55 Plaid Cymru 4 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority 164