By Elections 30th July & Com Res poll



There were 5 local by elections this Thursday. It showed the SNP still dominate in Scotland with 2 big wins in Aberdeen. The Tories gained an Independent seat in North Kesteven and scored a 6% swing against the May result on the same day as the general Election against Labour in Droitwich in the West Midlands in a good night for them. The Lib Dems were not really competitive in any of the seats up, Labour had a poor night across the board.


Kincorth, Nigg & Cove (Aberdeen) SNP 1939 Lab 606 Con 313 LD 207 Green 114SNP Hold – Swing from May 2012 Lab-SNP 22.8%

Hilton, Woodside & Stockethill (Aberdeen) SNP 1690 Lab 771 Con 350 Green 130 LD 125SNP Hold – Swing from May 2012 Lab-SNP 19.7%

North Hykeham Mill (N Kesteven) Con 286 Ind 180 Lab 161 Green 64 LD 22CON GAIN from Lincs Ind – Swing n/a

College (Northumberland) Lab 508 UKIP 102 LD 82 Con 39Lab Hold – No UKIP candidate last time swing n/a

Droitwich East, (Wychavon) Con 495 Lab 175 UKIP 171 LD 108Con hold – Swing From May 2015 Lab-Con 6%

National Projected share based on last 20 by elections – Con 34.1% Lab 29.8% LD 16% UKIP 9.9% Green 3.8%


Communicate Research have released their first Voting Intention poll and find with Labour still in the midst of their leadership contest the Tories 12% ahead. Labour’s position is stronger in the North-West where perhaps there is still hope Andy Burnham, who is from Liverpool and based in the North-West constituency of Leigh, will still win. Almost everywhere else Labour are struggling and the Tories are doing better than their May result. Com Res have the SNP on 54% in Scotland on figures that would have them taking all but Dumfrieshire that would remain with the Conservatives. The regional breakdowns on the current boundaries would give the Conservatives an overall majoirty of 58 based on these figures.


Com Res poll 28/07/2015

Vote Share – Con 40% Lab 28% UKIP 10% LD 7% Green 5%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 354 Lab 207 LD 9 SNP 58 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18



Polls and local by elections


Local By elections 23/07

There were 5 local by elections this Thursday. Labour held their four safe seats that were up for grabs and the Liberal Democrats continued their recent good run by holding a marginal seat in Elmbridge with a good swing against the Conservatives. The results are below.

Mill Hill (Blackburn) Lab 505 UKIP 179 Con 109 LD 69Lab Hold – No UKIP Can last time so swing n/a

Croft Baker (NE Lincs) Lab 788 Con 513 LD 323 UKIP 318 TUSC 85 Green 66Lab Hold – Swing (From May 2015) Lab-Con 0.5%

Harrow Road (Westminster) Lab 1139 Con 334 UKIP 38Lab Hold – Swing (From May 2014) Con-Lab 6.6%

New Tredegar (Caerphilly) Lab 648 UKIP 90 Con 47Lab Hold – No UKIP or Con candidate last time, swing n/a

Long Ditton (Elmbridge) LD 770 Con 611 Green 79 UKIP 61LD Hold – Swing (From May 2012) Con-LD 4.5%

National projected share based on last 20 local by elections –

Con 33.6% Lab 32.5% LD 16.3% UKIP 11.1% Green 3,7%

Ipsos-Mori Poll

Mori have released their first voting intention poll since the General Election in May. The figures seen some erratic regional changes but the headline figures are as you were for the Tories and Labour. The Liberal Democrats move ahead of UKIP, in line with what we have been seeing in the by elections. The regional movements would see the Tory majority increase due to an improvement in the North of England and Scotland. Labour would win a few seats back in the south but lose most of the gains they made in the North-West. The breakdown would also see UKIP gaining Hartlepool from Labour.


Vote Share – Con 37% Lab 31% LD 10% UKIP 9% Green 8%

Seat projection (Changes compared to May 2015 General Election) – Con 345 (+14) Lab 227 (-4) LD 11 (+3) SNP 43 (-14) UKIP 2 (+1) Green 1 (NC) Plaid Cymru 3 (NC) Northern Irelands 18 (NC)

Conservative Majority of 40