Numbers Round up – By Elections 26th November


An array of nine by elections took place last night. The first result looked good for Labour as they gained a seat in Essex from the Tories. However it then got worse, they failed against the Tories in Lancaster with a pro Tory swing against General election day, failed in Ashfield despite two independents splitting the vote in two seperate contests, failed in Newport where the same thing happened, and were easily beaten in two marginal seats in Scotland by the SNP where Labour had won on 1st preferences in 2012. By the end, what started like being a night with some electoral respite for the struggling Labour leadership, ended up being another night of overall misery.


By Elections 26/11/2015

Rochford (Rochford) – Lab 332 Con 328 UKIP 250 LD 114Lab GAIN From Con – Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 4.9%

Dunfirmline North (Fife) SNP 1056 Lab 719 Con 304 LD 230 Green 63 UKIP 58SNP Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 15.3%

Rosyth (Fife) SNP 1214 Lab 926 Con 245 LD 97 UKIP 88 Ind 66 Green 51SNP Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 11.3%

Pwilheli South (Gwynedd) Ind 269 Plaid Cymru 168 Ind 106 Llais Gwynedd 49Ind GAIN from Llais Gwynedd – Swing n/a

Bettws (Newport) Ind/Cleverly 336 Lab 294 Ind/Jordan 275 Con 114 Green 29 LD 7Ind Hold – Swing (May 2012) Ind-Lab 4.4%

Selston (Ashfield) Selston Ind 1180 Ind 294 Lab 172 UKIP 77 Con 52Selston Ind Hold – Swing (May 2015) Sel Ind -Ind 13.4%

Selston (Notts CC) Selston Ind 2054 Ind 794 Lab 355 UKIP 161 Con 103Selston Ind Hold – Swing (May 2013) Lab-Selston Ind 13%

Carnforth & Millhead (Lancaster) Con 1238 Lab 981 Green 242Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 4.8%

Salisbury ST Edmund & Millford (Wiltshire) Con 425 LD 262 Lab 232 Green 215 Ind 45Con GAIN from LD – Swing (May 2013) LD-Con 16.9%

Projected National Share (Based on the last 20 by elections fought by each party)

Con 34.1% Lab 28.5% LD 17.7% UKIP 10.1% SNP 4.5% Green 2.9%

Conclusion by Party

Conservatives – Rochford will put a cloud on an otherwise good night. They brushed aside the Labour challenge in Lancaster in a key Westminster marginal seat, and got a big gain against the Lib Dems in Wiltshire. The 5.6% lead over Labour on the projected share is also the biggest for some time. The Tory projected share across the by elections they fought this Thursday averaged over 36%, so there is scope to go higher if they can continue as they are and avoid too many results like Rochford.

Labour – Rochford is the one off they will rightly play for all it is worth. It is a good result, but they did not have any others last night. Their vote share projection has been going down noticeably in the last couple of weeks as well, in line with their struggles at national level. Next weeks Parliamentary by election in a seat they should win very easily, will be very interesting indeed.

Lib Dem – This is their worst week for a while and their defeat in Wiltshire is obviously the most notable aspect of this week for them, but they did not really rebuild a vote anywhere else where not competitive either this week. They will hope this is a blip rather than the start of a trend.

SNP – Not much to say, their victories over Labour suggest they are on course for gains from Labour at the Hollyrood elections, and on course to win big yet again.

Plaid Cymru – After they took a seat from Llais Gwynedd last week on a huge swing, their failure to beat an Independent and do the same this week is a poor result for Plaid, yet typical of the unpredictability of Gwynedd politics.


Numbers Update – by elections & two polls


By Elections

This week saw seven local by elections. The main winners were the Conservatives with 3 gains, including one from Labour in a seat the Tories had never won before, they also had a spectacular victory in Epsom where the Tories finished 5th in 2013, but won this week.

Local By Elections 19/11/2015

Watton (Norfolk) Con 822 Ind 793 Lab 105 Green 81Con GAIN from UKIP – Swing n/a as no UKIP candidate.

South Smallburgh (Norfolk) LD 1383 Con 697 UKIP 219 Lab 103 Green 52LD Hold – Swing (May 2013) Con-LD 13.1%

Llanaelhaearn (Gywnedd) Plaid Cymru 200 Llais Gwynedd 112 Ind 99Plaid Cymru GAIN from Llais Gwynedd – Swing (May 2012) LG-PC 29.7%

Dewi (Gwynedd) PC 189 Lab 110 LD 19PC Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-PC 1%

Kidwelly (Carmarthenshire) Lab 288 PC 248 Ind 177 People 1st 58 Con 53 Ind 28Lab Hold – Swing n/a as no PC candidate last time.

Aylesford Green (Ashford) Con 110 UKIP 109 Lab 106 Ind 92 LD 42 Green 10Con GAIN from Lab – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 5.5%

Epsom West (Surrey) Con 619 Resident Association 591 LD 588 Lab 578 UKIP 168 Green 58Con GAIN from LD – Swing (May 2013) LD-Con 8.1%, Con were 5th in 2013.

Projected Nation share (Based on last 20 local by elections fought)

Con 33% Lab 28.6% LD 19.3% UKIP 10.1% SNP 4.3% Green 2.8%

Opinion Polls

ICM and Ipsos-Mori have released their October voting intention polls. Both see increased Conservative leads and both regionally project a healthy Conservative Majority. In line with what we are seeing in the by elections with the Tories in control where it matters and Labour continuing to do badly, especially in the Midlands where most of the key seats are. The Liberal Democrats will be disappointed to see there is still no breakthrough in the national polls considering their improved performance at local level.

ICM 17/11/2015

Voting Intention UK – Con 39% Lab 33% UKIP 12% LD 7% Green 4%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 353 Lab 210 LD 6 SNP 58 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18Con Majority 56

Ipsos-Mori 19/11/2015

Voting Intention UK – Con 41% Lab 34% LD 7% UKIP 7% Green 4%

Regional Seat Projection – Con 358 Lab 206 LD 6 SNP 58 Plaid Cymru 2 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18Con Majority 66

Conclusion by party

Conservative – An excellent set of number for the Tories, 3 gains in the by elections and still well ahead in the polls and seat projections where it matters. David Cameron remain in complete control of the UK political scene right now.

Labour – This is Labour’s worst week for sometime. With terrorism in the headlines, Jeremy Corbyn appears particularly weak when anything of that nature comes up. I have always said Corbyn cannot win a General Election, I have seen nothing to come even close to changing my mind.

Lib Dems – Another decent week locally, a good result in Norfolk, although a poor result losing in Epsom in Surrey. Their poll ratings remain at the same low level they got in May too. Mixed news for the Lib Dems but at least at local level the pointers are to some decent results in May 2016.

UKIP – Struggling to find an identity post May, UKIP’s problem is they are not competing where they should be. The Mori poll has them down on 7% nationally in line with evidence they have fallen back since May. The Parliamentary by-election in Oldham West will be a big test of where UKIP are, it is a by election they should be competing in, current trends suggest they will fall well short.

SNP – No local elections this week but Scottish polling suggests they are still on course to match or better their performance last May in the Scottish Parliament elections. Doing so will mean further advances as the SNP got 45% in the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections, so they would be up by a further 5% at least if they repeat their General Election performance. Bad news for Labour who would be the main losers.

Plaid Cymru – Plaid are another big warning for Labour. They have done well in Welsh local elections recently, the potential for them to score some upsets at Labour’s expense in the Welsh Assembly elections looks to be on the increase. Plaid are the wild card that could really spoil Jeremy Corbyn’s night next May, as holding Wales is something Labour are banking on.