Moon Elections & Polling Round-Up

Moon Polling & Elections



There were four by elections this week in different parts of the country but both created by the deaths of councillors who served at district and county level. All were Conservative defences and they held all four seats, however the result pattern were very different. Two of the by elections were in the Wyre area of Lancashire in the constituency of Cat Smith who is MP for Lancaster & Fleetwood. Although the Tories held both seats there were heavy swings towards the Labour Party who will be much the happier with both results

In stark contrast were the by elections in the Thanet area of Kent. Not only did the Tories hold both but saw their vote go up, in one case by over 23%. Some of this will be due to UKIP not standing in the district seat however the Tories had a swing in their favour against Labour in the county seat where UKIP did stand. The Kent results were much more impressive for the Conservatives.

There is little change on the projected share this week, the Tories lead over Labour nudges up slightly to 3.4% from 3.3% last week as the good result for both sides even themselves out. All the current polling and election projected share numbers can be found here


YouGov released the first Westminster voting intention poll this week. It recorded a 1% lead for Labour, slightly down from 2% in their last one before Christmas. Labour’s average poll lead is currently 1.7% and this one does not change the narrative of the two sides in general stalemate. The breakdown suggests Labour improvement in Scotland and better performance in the North of England is the reasons they are currently ahead. The Lib Dems edged up to 9% in this poll, something they will hope becomes a trend rather than a one off. The poll also gave Theresa May a 6% lead over Jeremy Corbyn as best PM, the same as their last poll.

All the current polling numbers can be found here


Communicate Research released polling on support for a 2nd EU Referendum in the light of Nigel Farage’s suggestion that it may happen after all. The poll showed an 8% lead against having a 2nd Referendum 43% for and 51% against. YouGov found a similar result when it asked a similar question in November. The poll also asked the remain-leave question which came out 52% to 48% in favor of remain. The relevance of this while there is a majority against holding one anyway is dubious. Also remember many polls had a similar remain lead right up until the day itself and is within margin of error of the actual referendum result.



Wyre Rural (Lancashire)Con 1745 Lab 925 Green 237Con Hold – Swing (May 2017) Con-Lab 12%

Preesall (Wyre)Con 930 Lab 753Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 9.7%

Birchington & Thanet Rural (Kent) – Con 2534 Lab 865 LD 561 UKIP 357 Green 169Con Hold – Swing (May 2017) Lab-Con 1.5%

Thanet Villages (Thanet)Con 620 LD 313 Lab 206 Green 66 Ind 52Con Hold – Swing n/a as no LD last time – Con vote up 23.6% on May 2017


YouGovLab 41% Con 40% LD 9% UKIP 3% Green 2%Lab Lead 1%



Moon of Liberty Newsround


Moon Of Liberty Newsround – on 07th August at 11.05 pm

The Times – Momentum activists take over Chris Leslie’s constituency of Nottingham East

CBS News – Trump defends national security adviser McMaster after calls for his sacking

NBC News – Piano that survived the Holocaust to be an exhibit in Israel museum

Moon of Liberty Opinion/Editorial – Energy markets and the Trump Administration – Kevin Alcock

NBC News – Vladimir Putin poses for the cameras while fishing on vacation

Spectator Opinion – Why Amber Rudd will likely get Ruth Davidson’s endorsement for any future Tory leadership contest – James Forsyth

Daily Telegraph – Kenya fears return to bloodshed with upcoming election

Sky News – Biggest earthquake in 30 years hits the Scottish Highlands

BBC News – Irish PM wants no barriers to free trade post Brexit

BBC News – North and South Korea to open talks

BBC News – National Trust U-Turn over LBGT badges

Moon Of Liberty/Winning at Politics – Local by elections round-up on a good night for Labour at UKIP’s expense

The Hill – FBI monitored social media on election day for fake news from Russia

Daily Mirror – Labour MP Chris Williamson rejects case to sanction Venezuela and attacks the US ‘shady record

Antisemitism UK – Labour selects by election candidate who has tweeted antismetic content

Conservative Home opinion – Being the workers party means being the party of low taxes – Rob Halfon MP

ABC News – John McCain says he believes he will be ready to go back to work in September

The Independent – Grand Jury set up to investigate president Trump’s links to Russia

Irish Times – Lobbyist says Republicans and Democrats need to work together if they want US immigration reform

The Australian – Australian Senator Hatch vows to block any same sex marriage referendum attempt


Moon Of Liberty Newsround – 13th Jan 2017

Blue_Moon2News Digest 13th Jan 2017 @ 9.30 pm

Institute of Economic Affairs video – Jeremy Corbyn’s maximum wage ‘an absolutely terrible idea’

The Moon Of Liberty/Winning At Politics – Thursday’s local by election round up

Fox News – Rosie O’Donnell calls for martial law to stop Donald Trump’s inauguration

Bloomberg – Deutsche Bank says Brexit is driving up Berlin house prices

Sky News – Nationwide eyes £2.7bn sale of property arm assets

BBC News – Exorcist writer William Peter Blatty dies aged 89

Independent – Tristram Hunt is named new V&A director amid concerns they will start charging

NBC News – US Congress moves a step closer to repealing Obamacare

Irish Times – CIA prepares for unprecedented challenges that a Donald Trump Presidency could bring

London Evening Standard – Top public schools team up with Tottenham Hotspur FC to create a new sixth form

Order Order – The Daily Politics guide to Brexit

Independent – McDonalds to hand out thousands of free meals to the homeless

BBC News – MP Tristram Hunt resigns to become V&A museum director, forcing a by election in Stoke On Trent

Daily Express – Donald Trump predicts the end of the EU as aides ask which nations will be next to leave


Moon Of Liberty Elections – by election in Fife



Labour make Scottish Gain in Fife

Only one by election this week in Fife in Scotland. A gain was inevitable as it was an independent who had stood down and there was no independent candidate on this occasion leaving the contest a battle between Labour and the SNP. Recently there has been evidence of a hardening of the Unionist vote behind whomever is best placed to take on the SNP and also evidence in local contests where the single transferable vote is used of Unionists using other preferences to try and beat the SNP.

That trend continued here. Labour had a good lead from 2012 and while the SNP vote was up 17% on the 2012 result and they did take most of the Independent vote, Labour’s vote held up to give them a good lead on first preferences and sure enough, the hardening of unionist vote transfers including from the Conservative, whose vote was up 7% on 2012, was enough to see Labour victorious and make the gain.

This should not be seen as a sign the SNP is doing badly, there vote was still well up more than any other party. But the hardening of the Unionist vote is ensuring the previous sense of SNP invincibility they have had as of late is no longer the default position and that they can be beaten. The result sees little change on the UK Projected share with the Conservatives still 4.2% ahead of Labour. All the latest figures can be found here




BY ELECTION (25/08/2016)

The Lochs (Fife)Lab 1380 SNP 1025 Con 270 Communist 88 Green 45LAB GAIN FROM IND (On Round 4 via STV systems) – Swing n/a as no Ind to defend the seat (Swing between Lab & SNP – Lab-SNP 5.6%)


Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local by Elections 11/08/2016



Local By Elections 11/08

There were three by elections this weekend and in normal circumstances the two in Scotland would have been more excellent news for the SNP and bad news for Labour. The SNP were ahead on first preferences in both with good swings against Labour, while the Conservatives, not competitive in either, continued their improvement in Scotland with an average 8% improvement over the two. However in the North Ayrshire election due to the Single Transferable vote system, Labour overtook the SNP to score a rare gain in Scotland after six rounds in which neither party got over 50%. In contrast the Renfrewshire by elections was a Gain for the SNP, so in terms of victories it is one gain and one loss each. There was one other contest in Worcestershire which was a good result for the Conservatives as the UKIP vote collapsed allowing the Lib Dems into a distant second place.

The results mean the Conservative lead over Labour increases to 5.3% based on local by elections. The Lib Dems dip under 20% due to some weaker showing in Scotland and UKIP are down to 7.4%. All the latest numbers, both national and local can be found here. The breakdown of this weeks by elections is below.




Local Council By Elections 11/08/2016

Irvine West (N Ayrshire) 1st pref – SNP 1164 Lab 1029 Con 693 Soc Lab 131 Green 94 LD 38 – 1st Pref Swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 3.7% LAB GAIN FROM SNP on round 6 of STV, overtaking the SNP 1st Pref lead.

Renfrew South & Gollowhill (Renfrewshire) 1st pref – SNP 1309 Lab 1012 Con 366 LD 53SNP GAIN FROM LAB – 1st Pref swing (May 2012) Lab-SNP 7.7%

Ormbersley (Worcestershire) – Con 956 LD 224 UKIP 212 Ind 120Con Hold – Swing (May 2013) UKIP-Con 17.2% – LD 3rd-2nd UKIP 2nd-3rd

Moon Of Liberty Elections – By Elections 21/07/2015


Local Council By Elections

11 By Elections on Thursday 21st July 2016

11 by elections took place on Thursday and with the Conservatives defending 7 of them it could have been a difficult night. Ironically the one they lost was one of the least likely on paper with the Lib Dems scoring a superb victory in Northampton from 3rd place last time. The Tories defended the other six seats however with strong vote share with impressive holds against the Lib Dems in Exmouth, East Devon and retaining a real marginal in Lancashire against Labout where Labour only needed a 2.3% swing to gain and failed to do so.

Labour held their two strongholds in London and Plaid Cymru saw off the Lab challenge in Gwynedd easily. UKIP were the big losers, while they were not competitive in any of the by elections where they stood, they were consistently down 5-7% on their General Election day performance and have fallen below 8% on the national projected share for the first time since I began producing these figures. Thursday’s results see the Conservatives lead over Labour on the projected share increase from 1.6% to 2%. All the current election/polling figures can be found here



Warlingham West  (Tandridge)Con 367 LD 218 UKIP 64Con Hold – Swing (May 2016) Con-LD 6.6%

Waunfawr (Gwynedd) Plaid Cymru 358 Lab 114Plaid Cymru Hold – Swing n/a – Plaid vote up 18.6% on May 2012

Hackney Central (Hackney)Lab 1354 Green 178 LD 113 Con 101 Ind 55Lab Hold – Swing (May 2014) Green-Lab 12.1%

Bellingham (Lewisham)Lab 940 Con 302 LD 180 People Before Profit 129 UKIP 104Lab Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-Con 1.4%

Southcote (Reading)Lab 934 Con 381 LD 77 Green 66Lab Hold – Swing (May 2016) Lab- Con 0.5%

Westone (Northampton)LD 583 Con 319 Lab 270 LD GAIN FROM CON – Swing (May 2015) Con-LD 32.6% – LD 3rd-1st Lab 2nd-3rd (Down 7%)

Honiton ST Michaels (East Devon)Con 362 E Dev Ind 211 Lab 197 UKIP 140Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-E Dev Ind 1.5%

Balderton South (Newark & Sherwood)Con 483 LD 103Con Hold – Swing n/a – Con vote up 26.4% from May 2015

Exmouth Littleham (East Devon)Con 547 LD 467 Lab 193Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-LD 0.6%

Chorley Rural North (Lancashire)Con 1144 Lab 1042 UKIP 303 LD 125Con Hold – Swing (May 2013) Lab-Con 0.3%

Great Wyrley Town (S Staffs)Con 357 Lab 230 UKIP 114Con Hold Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 2%

UK Projected share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought)

Con 32.7% Lab 30.7% LD 18.1% UKIP 7.6% Green 4.4% SNP 4.4%Con Lead 2%


Moon Elections – Parkfield & Oxbridge by election



Parkfield & Oxbridge on Stockton On Tees Council

Labour hold the seat, but the bigger picture is still all blue

There was just the one local by election last night but an interesting one. While the seat up itself was a reasonably safe Labour seat, it was in the constituency of Stockton South, a Tory held Westminster marginal where Labour must win if they are to have any chance of forming a Government. So this was a good chance to get a guide of the position in a Westminster marginal for the first time in some time. As ever with local by elections, there were some anomalies to take into account when putting this into a wider perspective. There was no Green candidate, they got 8% last time, no Independent who got 11% last time and UKIP stood this time, they did not last time.

To win the constituency of Stockton South in 2020 Labour need a 4.5% swing across the whole constituency. So were they making this sort of progress? the answer is no. Both the Labour and Tory share of the vote went up, Labour by 7% and the Tories by 5%, and therefore the swing to Labour was just 1%. It appears Labour squeezed that Green vote and the Tories took some of the Independent vote. So a decent one off hold for Labour, but the bigger picture suggests the Tories are still well ahead in Stockton South and that is good news for David Cameron and the Conservatives and not so good for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour.



Parkfield & Oxbridge (Stockton On Tees)Lab 598 Con 363 UKIP 113 LD 65Lab Hold – Swing (Against May 2015) Con-Lab 1%

Projected national UK share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought by each party)

Con 36.9% Lab 29.9% LD 16.4% UKIP 8.8% SNP 4.1% Green 2.5% – Con lead 7%



Conservatives – Will be delighted with the increase in the vote and holding the Labour swing to just 1%, particularly given there was an 8% Green vote to be squeezed which is a scenario in which Labour usually perform better. Another strong performance in a Westminster marginal seat where looking ahead to bigger things, it really matters.

Labour – Can be pleased with the hold, but the result shows the limitations of their progress. The bigger picture outlook remains bleak, a swing of 1% where there was a Green vote to squeeze and a UKIP candidate to take votes from the Tories, is simply not good enough in marginal seats.

The Numbers – The Conservative projected share lead over Labour falls slightly from 7.1% to 7%, but the Tory share is actually at it’s highest level this year, Labour are also at their highest share this year, but have not quite got back to 30%. All the current poll and election figures can be found here.