Moon Of Liberty Elections – By Elections 26-28 July 2016


Local Council By-Elections

Two gains for improving Lib Dems

At local level the Lib Dems can well and truly trumpet their fightback at the moment. They had another excellent week this week making two gains and with vote share increases that has pushed their average projected share above 20% for the the first time since the heady days of Cleggmania in 2015.

The Conservatives share has suffered slightly at the hands of this Lib Dem rise also losing a seat in Cornwall. However the made progress against the Lib Dems in Carshalton and held on against a strong Lib Dem challenge in East Hampshire.The only Conservative verses Labour head to head was in Droitwich where the Tories not only held on but scored a strong swing outperforming their General Election performance confirming recent national opinion polls when it comes to going head to head with Labour.

As for the red team, they were hit everywhere including failing to put up a candidate to defend their seat in Totnes after the meeting to select a candidate apparently ending in farce according to reports. Labour’s national difficulties appear to be showing through in local contests where, Harringey apart, they were hammered with their vote share falling everywhere else this week, including the Droitwich result against the Tories and the Newport result against the Lib Dems, both in normal times you would expect an opposition to be look to be gaining. Both began as marginals and Labour are now even further away than they were from these seats.

The results mean the Tories lead over Labour in projected vote share is up from 2% to 3.7% despite the Tory vote falling a touch due to the Lib Dem rise.This shows the at local level as at national level, it is Labour who are struggling most. All the current numbers/polling etc can be found here. This weeks full results are below.




Local By Elections 26-28 July 2016

By Election 26/07/2016

The Hangers & Forest (E Hampshire)Con 236 LD 227 Justice Party 41 Lab 17Con Hold – Swing n/a as no LD last time.

By Election 27/07/2016

Totnes (South Hams)LD 812 Green 499 Ind 391 Con 197 LD GAIN FROM LAB – Swing n/a as Lab did not defend the seat with a Candidate.

By Elections 28/07/2016

Noolyn & Goonhavern (Cornwall)LD 247 Con 243 Ind 163 Mebyon Kernow 161 Lab 77 Ind 75 Ind 54LD GAIN FROM CON – Swing n/a as no LD candidate last time

Haringey (Harringay)Lab 1054 LD 765 Green 325 Con 99 UKIP 36Lab Hold – Swing (May 2014) Zero between Lab & LD

ST Julian’s (Newport)LD 948 Lab 432 UKIP 156 Con 135 Plaid Cymru 71 Green 25 LD Hold – Swing (May 2012) Lab-LD 15.9%

Carshalton Central (Sutton)LD 1250 Con 1061 Green 211 Lab 176 CPA 29LD Hold – Swing (May 2014) LD-Con 3.2%

Droitwich West (Wychavon)Con 281 Lab 161 UKIP 132 LD 97Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Lab-Con 6.4%

Projected national UK share (Based on the last 20 local by elections fought by each party)

Con 31.3% Lab 27.6% LD 20.3% UKIP 8.4% SNP 4.4% Green 5.1% – Con lead 3.7%