Moon Polling – Ipsos-Mori

WAP

Polling

Ipsos-Mori poll – 17th Feb 2016

Labour close the gap to 6% but projected Tory majority unchanged at 64

VOTING INTENTION

Ipsos-Mori have released their February poll showing a different trendline to ICM and Com Res that were out over the last few days. The headline voting intention figure sees the Tory lead over Labour down from 9% in January to 6% this month. The poll detail shows the old South of England problem returning giving Labour a big swing in the south, as against modest to medium swing to the Tories everywhere else against the May 2015 result. This along with the sample in the raw data being heavily skewed towards public sector workers is why Labour’s position holds up better than in other polls.

The 7% swing in the south (excluding London) would only have Labour picking up 13 seats in the south against the Tories which is easily wiped out by Tory gains in other regions. This shows the problem Labour will have even if they did very well in the south but not elsewhere as this poll suggests, as in the main they need huge swings to gain a serious number of seats there. The seat projection actually sees the Tories get exactly the same number of seats as in the January poll with a net increase of 26 seats on 357, meaning an overall majority of 64. In Scotland the SNP are recorded at 55%, and would take all 59 seats Scottish seats as a result. The poll is another showing no breakthrough for the Lib Dems.

EU REFERENDUM

The poll also asked the EU Referendum question and that too sees no change from January with Remain maintaining it’s 19% lead. The dynamics described above may suggest why this poll shows no change while the other poll that is done by phone, Com Res, saw a substantial swing to the leave campaign. The skew in this poll towards public sector workers and the high SNP figure mean an increase within groups known to be more likely to vote for remain. The likely exaggeration of Labour position in the south also may help the remain figure where a bigger Tory lead would have closed the gap.

CONCLUSION

While there is evidence to suggest this poll probably exaggerates Labour (In terms of headline voting percentage at least, though not so much in terms of seat projection) and the Remain in the EU positions, this is a poll for both to hold onto. Labour can use it to challenge the assumption that the Tories have increased their lead, and remain supporters can point to this poll to claim the rot of support moving to the leave campaign has stopped. A poll to challenge perceptions, that are sometimes more important in what happens next than the reality. Also of course while this poll of the last few is the outlier, the lesson of May 2015 is that we should not assume the outlier is always wrong.Whatever the details, this poll is good news for Remain, and some relief for Labour and Jeremy Corbyn.

THE NUMBERS (Poll of Poll averages)

Voting Intention – The Tory lead over Labour falls from 9% to 8.5%

Seat Projection – The Tory projected Overall Majority remains unchanged at 78

EU Referendum – The Remain lead in the EU Referendum phone poll average is unchanged at 13.5%

All the updated numbers can be found here. A breakdown of the Ipsos-Mori poll is below.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori Poll (17/02/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 39% Lab 33% LD 6% UKIP 12% Green 3% – Con lead 6%

REGIONAL SEAT PROJECTION

Con 357 Lab 204 LD 7 SNP 59 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority of 64

EU REFERENDUM

Remain 55% Leave 36%Remain lead 19%

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Moon Polling – Com Res EU Referendum Poll

WAP

Polling

EU Referendum Poll

Remain lead cut by more than half to 8% in Com Res Referendum poll

Along with the full Com Res Westminster poll they also asked the EU question. This is a phone poll which has been seeing considerably better figures for those who want to say in the EU. This poll confirms the trend is with those who want to leave with the 18% Remain lead in the last Com Res poll being cut to 8%. It also sees remain drop below 50% for the first time in a phone poll. It means the average phone poll lead for Remain is cut from 18.5% to 13.5%. .All the updated figures can be found here

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Com Res EU Referendum Poll (13/02/2016)

Remain 49% Leave 41%Remain lead 8%

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Moon Polling – Com Res and ICM

WAP

Polling

Com Res and ICM February Polls

National Westminster polls move further to the Tories

There have been two national polls released in the last few days. While we saw signs of hope for Labour in recent local by-elections, the national picture continues to look very bleak for the red team. The Communicate Research poll gave the Conservatives a 14% headline lead, the breakdown suggests this is exaggerated due to a very strong performance in the poll in Scotland on voting intention against Labour (Although this makes virtually no difference on seats as the SNP remained strong in this poll), on more normal Scottish figures the lead would have been around 11%. Across England the Com Res poll gave a fairly consistent picture of a swing between 2-4% from Labour to Conservative against last May across most regions, with a greater swing seen in Wales. The regional patterns would give the Tories an overall majority of 94.

The ICM has reported lower headline leads than most, their new poll has the Tories headline lead at 7%, up from 5% in January. Despite the discrepancy the trend is going the same way with the Tories increasing their lead. The regional patterns with ICM were a bit all over the place, with a huge swing to the Tories in Wales, Labour doing far better in the North than we have seen in other polls and the SNP down to 38% in Scotland. Com Res had the SNP on 51% retaining all it’s 56 seats, ICM would have the SNP down to 44 seats. It’s pretty clear the former is more credible on current trends. There is little to report regarding UKIP and the Lib Dems. UKIP continue to hold up OK and the Lib Dems continue to make no breakthrough in either poll.

Due to the more wild anomalies on one hand the ICM seat projection should be treated with a touch of caution as it sees both sides gain seats that are highly unlikely in reality, on the other hand it gives the Tories an overall majority of 80, which is almost in line with the average, so perhaps the wild moves even themselves out into something reasonably credible afterall, with the exception of the SNP figure of course.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Com Res (13/02/2016) 

Voting Intention – Con 41% Lab 27% UKIP 15% LD 9% Green 3% – Con lead 14%

Regional Seat Projection

Con 372 Lab 198 LD 8 SNP 56 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority 94

ICM (15/02/2016)

Voting Intention – Con 39% Lab 32% UKIP 11% LD 7% Green 4% – Con Lead 7%

Regional Seat Projection

Con 365 Lab 209 LD 8 SNP 44 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority 80

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CONCLUSION

These two polls continue to suggest if there is no change of Labour leader, there is only one winner in 2020. After issues with tax credits, Tory splits emerging over the EU Referendum and the dispute around Junior Doctors, it still appears Labour have made no inroads at all, indeed if anything are further away from power than they were at the start of 2016. As for the Tories, they appear to have free reign to split for the EU Referendum without any great consequence due to the weakness of the opposition, a luxury few could have predicted.

THE NUMBERS

The Tories average poll of polls lead increases from 8.4% to 9% over Labour. The poll of poll seat projection nudges up from 74 to 78. All the latest numbers can be found here.

 

Moon Polling – YouGov

WAP

Polling

YouGov Poll 31/01/2016

Tories increase headline lead to 9, Projected Tory Landslide Majority 132

YouGov’s end of January poll has been released and continues to be out of line with other polls with the regional patterns continuing to project a 100+ majority for the Tories where the others are in the region of 60-80. The headline Voting Intention number sees the Conservative lead increasing from 7% in December to 9% now. The poll continued to see the Southern issue emerge with the South (excluding London) seeing a decent swing to Labour when there is a swing to the Tories everywhere else. Particularly damaging to Labour is the 8% swing to the Conservatives in the Midlands against what happened in May, this is where the Conservatives really see their seat numbers rocket. The swings in other regions were well above the average of other pollsters as well. The movement is lower in London, that is in trend  with other polls with the Tories only getting a 2% swing against May in the Capital.

UKIP also do very well in this poll on 17% and the regional numbers would see them pick up a gain in Thanet South. The Liberal Democrats continue to show no progress nationally at all. In Scotland Labour did retain second place and this is partly reason the Tory lead is not in double figures. The SNP remain well ahead in Scotland, although this poll has them slightly lower than other pollsters, hence their seat number falls more than is probably really the case. As for the projected majority, it is YouGov’s third in a row projecting 100+ which no other pollster does. With that caveat, it is also a useful reminder of how far Labour could fall if the Corbyn experiment completely collapses, and will continue to give heart to those who dare to suggest quietly, that a Tory Landslide is possible with Labour being led by Jeremy Corbyn. The breakdown is below.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

YouGov Poll (31/01/2016)

UK Voting Intention – Con 39% Lab 30% UKIP 17% LD 6% Green 3% – Con lead 9%

Regional based seat projection

Con 391 Lab 175 LD 9 SNP 51 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall majority 132

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Conclusion

Another excellent poll for the Conservatives and even if the seat projection is an outlier and exaggerating the position, it is still showing a very healthy position with other polls backing up the fact the Tories remain well ahead at this point. There is no turning point for Labour or the Liberal Democrats, while the EU and migrant crisis are clearly playing well for UKIP. The SNP remain strong and frankly, their Westminster position is not that relevant now as they concentrate on Holyrood, where polls show them doing even better than in the Westminster polls.

The Numbers – The Conservative headline voting intention average lead remains the same at 8.4%, the average projected poll of polls seat projection sees projected the Tory majority up from 70 to 74. All the updated figures can be found here.