Moon Of Liberty Polling – February Polling Update

WAP

February Polling round up – Conservatives continue to dominate

Only Survation of the regularly reporting pollsters did not report in February and we had our first poll from Communicate Research this year. On Voting Intention every poll saw the Conservatives in a double digit lead ranging from 11% with Ipsos-Mori to 18% with YouGov and ICM. All pollsters have the Conservatives on 40% or more and Labour in the twenties, showing a stronger position for Theresa May and a weaker position for Jeremy Corbyn.

The lower lead from Ipsos-Mro fed into the seat projection, only they saw the projected Tory majority just short of three figures, all the others suggest the Conservative are on course for 350 seats or more on the new boundaries, thus ensuring a majority of 100 plus. ICM’s projected majority of 176 is a new record high projection, their projection of Labour on 141 seats is also a record low since I have been doing calculations on the new boundaries.

Labour’s position is particularly bad in the North West where swings to the Tories were consistently at 10% plus.The polling provides little solace anywhere except in London where they continue to be less hit than elsewhere. The SNP remain dominant in Scotland although on average they are now below 50% and the scope for the Tories to gain some seats in Scotland is certainly there. Labour are now consistently in third place behind the Tories on the Scottish breakdowns.

For the Lib Dems there continues to be little sign of their local election improvement showing up in national polls, although they have edged up into double figures in most cases. Ipsos-Mori offers them some hope giving them 14 seats on the new boundaries. The new boundaries will make their position more difficult, with strong targeting a result of around 20 seats, while by recent standards where pre-2015 they could get 50 plus, would actually be a very good result given the nature of the new boundaries. UKIP remain ahead of the Lib Dems on vote share, but there is little sign of them making any seat breakthroughs, which was backed up by the Stoke result last week.

The Conservatives average lead over is up from 12.8% in January to 14%. The average seat projection sees the Tory majority projection up to a record high of 136. Labour fall below 160 on 157. All the current numbers can be found here. A round up of this months polls is below.

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

February Polls

VOTING INTENTION

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 17%

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 44% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 18%

Opinium (13/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 27% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 5% – Con lead 13%

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 8% LD 13% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

Communciate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 41% Lab 26% UKIP 11% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 15%

SEAT PROJECTION (Based on regional patterns)

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 6 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 389 Lab 141 LD 8 SNP 34 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 176

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 346 Lab 177 LD 14 SNP 40 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 92

Communicate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 5 SNP 48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

________________________________________________________________

Advertisements

Moon Of Liberty Editorial -The next Brexit battles

Blue_Moon2

Reflections Of The Moon

The next Brexit battles

Last week saw an historic turn of events. Nearly 500 MP’s voted to start the process of Leaving the European Union, something until a very short time ago would have been unthinkable. Regardless of if you thought that vote should have occurred or not (and I don’t), it was unquestionably an historic moment. Does that mean it is all over? No, there could still be battles in the House of Lords to come, although the size of the Commons majority and the threat of future sanction if the unelected house tries to stand in the way of the will of the public Referendum makes that less likely.

Some key battles will come this week in the commons however. Last weeks vote was only the second reading, this week will see the committee and report stages as well as a final (for now anyway) 3rd reading vote. It could come back to the Commons at the end if the Lords ask the Commons to look at some of their amendments. These stages allow MP’s to table their own amendments to add to the bill. Many amendments on all sides have been tables, from the SNP the Lib Dems and the Labour side. Not all will be considered, that will be for the Speaker John Bercow and his team to decide. Given how Bercow has operated however, the more contentious ones will likely be chosen and debated.

Two serious possibilities will be to guarantee the rights of foreign nationals already here and a debate on the terms of the vote Parliament will get at the end of the process. As for the foreign nationals issue, it is unlikely a deal on this will not be done in the negotiation, or separately if there is no free trade deal. This would be a difficult one for the Government to weigh up, ideally this is still a negotiating card the Government would like to keep, however there is a majority in the commons to get it through if the MP’s really want to push for it. It is not inconceivable that if the Government thought they may lose, they could conceded this anyway. I support all foreign nationals right to stay here and have no problem with this getting through. Indeed, the good will it would create may create the conditions for a better deal in the end to be obtained.

The other battle over the type of vote is more complex and could prove more important.. The Government’s position is that if there is a deal, Parliament will vote for the deal or for no deal. But what if there is just no deal? For most this would be a case of tough luck, however those desperate to stay in the single market sense an opportunity here. If there is no deal surely Parliament should have the opportunity to accept an alternative to no deal.. Theresa May has said as far as she is concerned no deal is better than a bad deal. That means trade returning to WTO rules. By pushing their amendment those pro the single market hope to keep their hope alive by forcing a vote in which the alternative would either be the EEA option, or worse still for those more cynical of the motives of some of those MP’s, there is the other option of this being a back door way of staying in the EU, as Tim Farron has proposed as the alternative in his Referendum.

It is tough to say whether any amendment based on an alternative vote could get through. In theory there may be enough Tory rebels, but some Labour MP’s will be against it as well and accounting for abstentions and perhaps the DUP backing the Government, it would still be a tough ask to win the vote. If this is called by the speaker it is one the Government must fight, their position of bi lateral deal or no deal is the right one for this country and it’s negotiation and the executive must not lose control of the terms of the final vote as it could hand those who still hope Brexit won’t happen a small window of opportunity. The Government has set out the right course, this week could see attempts to blow it off course, this must not happen. Battles this week may in the long run prove more important than last weeks vote.

________________________________________________________________

 

Moon Of Liberty Polling & Elections – YouGov, Ipsos-Mori & by election in Bromsgrove

WAP

Polling – YouGov & Ipsos-Mori

Current trend of a 100 plus Tory majority projections continue

Two polls were released on the 19th January, a new polls from YouGov and the first from Ipsos Mori since I began calculating the seat breakdown on the new boundaries. YouGov sees rotten news for Labour, Their voting intention down to 25% with a battering in the North of England and Yorkshire would see a projected Conservative majority of 144. Ipsos-Mori is not quite that bad, but still sees a Tory majority of 114 and similar figures in the North and Yorkshire regions, the only real difference is they lose slightly less in the Midlands and Wales than YouGov showed. Either way it continues to look very healthy for Theresa May and very poor for Jeremy Corbyn. On both sets of figures Copeland where there is an upcoming parliamentary by election would fall to the Tories, it will be interesting to see if the by election bares this out.

Both polls showed the SNP below 50% and while they remain well ahead in Scotland, they appear to be falling from their peaks in line with recent Scottish local by elections where their invincibility of a couple of years ago is not as strong as it was. Ipsos-Mori also has some good news for the Liberal Democrats with some stronger figures in London and the South, the first and so far only sign in national polling of their local by election successes since the Referendum coming through. It is the first poll under the new boundary calculation that gives them a double figure seat return.

The new figures increase the Tories average projected lead on Voting Intention to 12.2% and their average projected majority increases from 112 to 124. Labour are currently projected to be on 164 seats. All the up to date figures can be found here

By-Election in Bromsgrove

There was one by election this week in Bromsgrove and some happier new for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. While the Tories held this safe seat the incredibly low turnout enabled Labour to come surprisingly close to winning it with a swing in their favour of over 11%. This is out of line with recent performances and could be to do with the fact The Tories took their big majority in May 2015 for granted here. Labour will hope to the contrary that it is a turning point rather than a one off. The Lib Dems who have been very strong in local by elections recently did not stand here. The strong performance from Labour sees the Tories projected share lead over the Reds based on local by elections fall from 8.2% to 7.6%. All up to date figures can be found here The details of this by election and the two polls discussed are below.

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Voting Intention

YouGov (19/01/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 3% – Con lead 17%

Ipsos-Mori (19/01/2017) – Con 43% Lab 31% UKIP 6% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 12%

Regional based seat Projection

YouGov – Con 372 Lab 156 LD 5 SNP44Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 144

Ipsos-Mori – Con 357 Lab 169 LD 11 SNP39 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 114

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

By Election 19/01/2017

Norton (Bromsgrove)Con 219 Lab 186 UKIP 82 Green 20Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-Lab 11.3%

________________________________________________________________

 

Moon Of Liberty Polling – Survation & Opinium

WAP

Opinium & Survation show a similar picture

Opinion polls have been released over the weekend by Survation and Opinium. Both show a similar picture on the voting intention. Opinium has the Conservative Party 8% ahead of Labour with Survation showing 10%. The reason for the lower leads than we have recently seen with YouGov and ICM is also similar in both have Labour in a better position in Scotland, indeed Survaton shows Labour ahead of the Tories in Scotland, sadly for Labour however, due to continued SNP strength, this is worth little in terms of seats.

Opinium only breaks down England, Scotland and Wales therefore I can not produce a seat projection like for like against the others as this requires regional English breakdown which Opinium do not provide. Survation shows a similar issue to ICM and YouGov in collapsing Labour support in the North and Yorkshire. As a result despite showing a 5% lower lead than the recent YouGov poll the Tories projected majority is almost identical (98 against 96 for YouGov.)

The changes reduce the Tories voting Intention average lead to 11.7% and the average projected Tory majority of all latest polls within the last three months (Based on regional breakdowns reduces from 120 to 112. This figure is for the new projected boundaries based on the boundary commission’s initial proposals. All the up to date figures can be found here 

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Opinium Poll (13/01/2017)

Voting Intention

 Con 38% Lab 30% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 3% – Con lead 8%

Survation Poll (14/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 39% Lab 29% UKIP 13% LD 10% Green 2% – Con lead 10%

Regional Seat Projection

Con 349 Lab 176 LD 5 SNP48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 98

________________________________________________________________

Moon Of Liberty Politics – PMQ’s

Blue_Moon2

Prime Ministers Questions – 11th Jan 2017

house-of-commons-inside

Corporation tax call sees Corbyn throw victory away

The first Prime Minister’s Questions of the New Year saw Jeremy Corbyn begin on comfortable ground. He started with condolences to a member of the armed forces, which quietly embarrassed Theresa May from the off as it is normally the PM who brings that up first in the early backbench questions.This is something David Cameron always did and for Theresa May to be doing it in response to the Leader of the Opposition is poor.

Unusually for Corbyn there were no surprises in the tack he took, straight on on the NHS problems which is one area he and Labour still have some strength in the public mind. He raised the Red Cross claim that what has happened is a ‘Humanitarian Crisis.’ May responded the Red Cross claim was ‘irresponsible and overblown.’ Corbyn the backed up with quotes from the BMA and Royal college of Nurses. May began waffling about the ‘hard work of medical professionals’ as means of diverting from the issue.

Corbyn accused May of being in denial and then raised a real life scenario of ‘Sian’ who had clearly written to him. In the David Cameron days this would bring huge groans from the Tory benches and his case would normally fall apart, it is a nod to how strongly Corbyn had started that this was not the case. May’s response of ‘I accept there have been a small number of cases’ by contrast were met by groans of derision from the Labour benches. Corbyn mocked the ‘shared society’ with more sharing trolleys, corridors etc. Corbyn at this point was on top. It was good stuff.

The turning point was Corbyn mentioning May’s focus on mental health and welcoming that. Not the ting to do when you are on top. He talked about an increase in mental health patients ‘having to go to A&E, May pointed out they should not be going to A&E, using a visit to an Aldershot Hospital and the importance of appropriate care for the individual. On this she spoke with passion and conviction, then Corbyn agreed these people should not be going to A&E after first saying they were forced to.The shambolic Corbyn of the last day or two was back.

May re-iterated the point ‘He may find it difficult to believe people may say the same thing they aid a few weeks ago.’ Poking fun at yesterday’s series at U-Turns. She then resorted to an old David Cameron tactic, that you can’t have a strong NHS without a strong economy. Corbyn then showed his weakness and fell into the trap, calling for Corporation tax cuts that have been shown to bring in more money to be scrapped. May pointed out he has spent that money that would immediately be saved eight times over, weakening the economy in the process.’The last thing the NHS needs is a cheque from Labour that bounces’ After a poor start enough to leave the Tory benches cheering at the end of the exchange, a score draw today that tells us Corbyn can score on the small picture, but May wins on the big picture.

Outside of the May v Corbyn exchange

SNP Leader Angus Robertson brought up the Northern Ireland crisis to call for Article 50 to be delayed, raising derision from both sides of the House. This was rebuffed by May who stated the plan to invoke Article 50 by March is still on course. Norman Lamb (Lib Dem MP for North Norfolk) stated MP’s from all parties had come together to call for a Health convention and wanted May to meet with them, she stated she would.John Woodcock  (Lab MP for Barrow In Furness) raised the special NHS service issues due to remote locations in Cumbria. Caroline Johnson (Con MP for Sleaford & N Hykeham) got to ask her first questions since her by election win, raising her local NHS (She was a doctor prior to becoming an MP.) Gavin Robinson (DUP MP for East Belfast) Praised May’s considered response to the Northern Ireland issue. Finally in the will anyone get told off by the Speaker this week watch, John Bercow reprimanded Paula Sheriff (MP for Dewesbury) for poor behaviour.

MOON OF LIBERTY VERDICTThresea May 2 Jeremy Corbyn 2 A PMQ’s of two halves, Corbyn took the first half, May the second

________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

Moon Of Liberty Polling – ICM Con lead by 14% & Cardiff Uni Welsh Poll

WAP

POLLING

Conservative’s keep 14% lead in first ICM 2017 poll

ICM have released the first poll of 2017 with fieldwork having been done in the New Year and the Conservatives maintain a 14% lead over Labour with the Lib Dems, who had a post Richmond by election bounce last time, down 2% back into single figures. Despite a similar lead over Labour to the YouGov poll the regional breakdown sees a bigger meltdown in the North West and in Yorkshire for Labour, which would see them lose more seats handing the Tories a bigger majority of 142. The SNP are on 42% in Scotland, considerably less than YouGov recorded.It means the Tory average lead is 14.5% and the projected Tory majority increases to 120. All the up to date figures can be found here

Cardiff University Welsh Poll

Cardiff University have released a Wales only poll. The Westminster voting intention sees Labour lead by 5% in Wales, they won by 10 at the 2015 General Election so the move to the Conservatives would see the Tories gain four seats that are notionally Labour on the new boundaries.Full details including Welsh Assembly polling can be found at the Cardiff University website here

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

ICM Poll (09/01/2017)

Voting Intention

Con 42% Lab 28% UKIP 12% LD 9% Green 4% – Con Lead 14%

Regional Breakdown Seat Projection

YouGov (01/01/2017) – Con 371 Lab 165 LD 7 SNP45 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 142

Cardiff University Poll (Wales Only)

Westminster Voting Intention

Lab 33% Con 28% UKIP 13% Plaid Cymru 13% LD 9%Labour lead 5%

Represents a swing of 2.5% from Lab to Con in Wales against May 2015

________________________________________________________________

Moon Of Liberty Polling – Scottish Independence

WAP

POLLING

scotland

Scots still reject Independence by a 7% margin

A new BMG poll for the Scottish Herald shows that if Nicola Sturgeon went a head with a 2nd Referendum on Independence from the UK, at present Scotland would again reject the proposal. The No lead has been reduced from 8% to 7% in the new poll with support for Independence at 40% and opposition at 47%. Without don’t knows this would be a 53.5% to 46.5% victory for the no campaign, slightly less than the 55-45 split in the 2014 Referendum, but still a clear margin. It appears at present, Scotland voting heavily to remain in the EU has not been a catalyst for the Independence movement, despite the fact the SNP still dominate the Scottish political scene.

Details (BMG Research)

________________________________________________________________

Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

BMG Scottish Independence Poll (04/01/2017*) 

Yes to Independence 40% No to Independence 47%

(*Date of release, not the date of the fieldwork which was before the new year)

________________________________________________________________