Moon Elections & Polling Round-Up

Moon Polling & Elections

WAP

LOCAL BY ELECTIONS

There were four by elections this week in different parts of the country but both created by the deaths of councillors who served at district and county level. All were Conservative defences and they held all four seats, however the result pattern were very different. Two of the by elections were in the Wyre area of Lancashire in the constituency of Cat Smith who is MP for Lancaster & Fleetwood. Although the Tories held both seats there were heavy swings towards the Labour Party who will be much the happier with both results

In stark contrast were the by elections in the Thanet area of Kent. Not only did the Tories hold both but saw their vote go up, in one case by over 23%. Some of this will be due to UKIP not standing in the district seat however the Tories had a swing in their favour against Labour in the county seat where UKIP did stand. The Kent results were much more impressive for the Conservatives.

There is little change on the projected share this week, the Tories lead over Labour nudges up slightly to 3.4% from 3.3% last week as the good result for both sides even themselves out. All the current polling and election projected share numbers can be found here

YOUGOV POLL

YouGov released the first Westminster voting intention poll this week. It recorded a 1% lead for Labour, slightly down from 2% in their last one before Christmas. Labour’s average poll lead is currently 1.7% and this one does not change the narrative of the two sides in general stalemate. The breakdown suggests Labour improvement in Scotland and better performance in the North of England is the reasons they are currently ahead. The Lib Dems edged up to 9% in this poll, something they will hope becomes a trend rather than a one off. The poll also gave Theresa May a 6% lead over Jeremy Corbyn as best PM, the same as their last poll.

All the current polling numbers can be found here

2ND EU REFERENDUM POLLING

Communicate Research released polling on support for a 2nd EU Referendum in the light of Nigel Farage’s suggestion that it may happen after all. The poll showed an 8% lead against having a 2nd Referendum 43% for and 51% against. YouGov found a similar result when it asked a similar question in November. The poll also asked the remain-leave question which came out 52% to 48% in favor of remain. The relevance of this while there is a majority against holding one anyway is dubious. Also remember many polls had a similar remain lead right up until the day itself and is within margin of error of the actual referendum result.

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MOON OF LIBERTY LOCAL BY ELECTION RESULTS

Wyre Rural (Lancashire)Con 1745 Lab 925 Green 237Con Hold – Swing (May 2017) Con-Lab 12%

Preesall (Wyre)Con 930 Lab 753Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 9.7%

Birchington & Thanet Rural (Kent) – Con 2534 Lab 865 LD 561 UKIP 357 Green 169Con Hold – Swing (May 2017) Lab-Con 1.5%

Thanet Villages (Thanet)Con 620 LD 313 Lab 206 Green 66 Ind 52Con Hold – Swing n/a as no LD last time – Con vote up 23.6% on May 2017

WESTMINSTER VOTING INTENTION POLL

YouGovLab 41% Con 40% LD 9% UKIP 3% Green 2%Lab Lead 1%

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Moon Of Liberty Polling – Four polls to update

WAP

Polling

Theresa May remains in control

With four National opinion polls in the last two weeks Theresa May remains in total control and her honeymoon period continues as Labour’s problems show no real signs of turning in the polls. Over the four polls the Conservatives have an average advantage of over 10% with only YouGov recording a single digit Conservative lead. This also shows in the seat projections with ICM, TNS & Ipsos-Mori producing regional projections of a Tory Majority in the 90’s in contrast to the majority of 36 with YouGov.

The three polls with double digit leads suggests the North is the biggest problem. Both in the North-East and North-West reduced support for Labour appears to be a product of the post Brexit scenario where many Labour heartlands voted against the advice of most Labour politicians. The red team could be losing both ways as there also appear to be the stirrings of Lib Dem improvement in London at Labour’s expense. Their pro-EU stance may be losing them support in the North, while their perceived loop warm support for the EU may be seeing them begin to lose some ground in London too, a double edged sword.

In Scotland there are no signs of SNP support slowing down or any respite for Labour. The SNP are on over 48% on average across the four polls, with the Tories very definitely now ahead of Labour there too. regardless of whether you believe YouGov, the other three, or somewhere in the middle is the real position, it is very clear that unless they are all totally wrong, the Tories remain in an extraordinary position six years into Government.The Tory lead on the Average Poll of polls goes up to 7.8% and the average seat projections would give the Tories a slightly reduced majoirty of 62 against 66 before these polls, due to YouGov and the last ICM poll predicting a 100+ majority landslide. Al the latest numbers can be found here

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori (17/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 45% Lab 34% LD 7% UKIP 6% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 371 Lab 194 LD 6 SNP 56 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 94

ICM (16/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 40% Lab 28% UKIP 14% LD 8% Green 4% – Con Lead 12%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 374 Lab 190 LD 7 SNP 54 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority 98

YouGov (11/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 38% Lab 31% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 7%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 343 Lab 219 LD 9 SNP 57 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 36

TNS (11/08/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 39% Lab 26% UKIP 14% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 13%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 370 Lab 196 LD 9 SNP 53 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con majority 90

 

Moon Polling – Ipsos Mori

Blue_Moon2

WAP

Polling

Ipsos-Mori Poll 28/01/2016

Tories increase their lead to nine, projected Majority of 64

Ipsos-Mori have released their first voting intention poll of 2016 and the headline figures make more bleak reading for Labour. The Conservative lead has increased from 7% to 9%. The detail sees the pollsters southern problem return, seeing a 7.5% swing to Labour in the South of England (Excluding London) which is clearly nonsense. The rest is in line with what you would expect, Labour doing a little bit better in London, but the Tories doing better than their General Election performance in the North, Midlands, Yorkshire & Wales. Scotland again sees the Tories in second place, although the 34% share the Tories are given, only 10% behind the SNP is clearly an outlier. The breakdown of the poll is below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori (28/01/2016)

UK Voting Intention – Con 40% Lab 31% LD 7% UKIP 11% Green 4% – Con lead 9%

Regional Seat Projection (Current boundaries)

Con 357 Lab 218 LD 7 SNP 45 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 64

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Conclusion 

Caution is required with this poll due to the elements that are out of line with other polling. On the seat projection it is likely that the SNP are too low as the Tory share in Scotland exaggerates the number of seats the Tories would take there, Labour are too high due to the nonsensical south of England figures, and the Tories projection is about OK given there Scottish gains they would not get in reality are offset by the southern losses to Labour they would not lose in reality. As a result the eventual projected Tory majority is in the 60-80 trend we have seen with the majority of pollsters, even if it took a round about way of getting there.

The Numbers

As a result of this poll the average Tory poll lead over Labour increases from 8.1% to 8.4%. The poll of polls projected Tory majority is unchanged at 70. All the updated figures can be found here.

 

 

Moon Polling – ICM Monthly Poll

WAP

 

Polling

ICM Monthly Poll

Tories lead by 5% with ICM, Projected majority of 68

ICM have released their monthly poll and on the face of it looks not quite so bad for Labour, until that is you drill down into the figures. The headline lead for the Conservative remains at 5% the same as last month. The Labour share of 35% is much better than it has been in other polls, however the raw numbers actually found more 2015 Labour than Conservative voters, meaning a 5% lead for the Tories on this sample, is probably bigger on a sample more representative of how Britain actually voted in May’s General Election.Never the less, we can only ever use the figures we are given and as May showed, an outlier is not always wrong just because it is an outlier.

The regional patterns don’t make good reading for Labour in England. While the rise in the vote share comes as a result of much better figures in Scotland and Wales, with the SNP only on 41% in contrast to Com Res and Survation that had them over 50%. Most of England sees a big swing to the Tories against May, as much as 6% in most regions outside of London and the South. ICM sees a return to particularly dire numbers in the Midlands after Com Res and Survation found numbers not as bad there, this is key to where Labour must improve to stand a chance in 2020.

As a result of the distribution of where Labour have improved and where they have not, the 1% swing implied nationwide to Labour by the 5% Tory lead figure does not translate into seats. Indeed the seat projection sees ICM come back in line with most others pointing to a Tory majority between 60 and 80 (The last ICM poll was slightly lower than that.) In this case the ICM poll has a Tory majority of 68, primarily due to the Midlands but also poor Labour figures in the North and Yorkshire.

With the inclusion of this poll the Tory average lead across all polls is now 8.1% and the poll of polls seat projection sees the projected Tory Majority nudge up by 2 from 68 to 70. All the numbers can be found here. The breakdown for the ICM poll is below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

ICM Poll (18/01/2016)

Vote Share – Con 40% Lab 35% UKIP 10% LD 6% Green 2% – Con Lead 5%

Regional Seat Projection

Con 359 Lab 208 LD 9 SNP 49 Plaid Cymru 5 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Overall Majority 68

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