Moon Of Liberty Polling – ICM Con lead by 16%

WAP

Polling

ICM – Con lead by 16% and poll projects a landslide majority of 164

ICM’s latest poll has electrified the prospect the new PM Theresa May could be increasingly tempted to call a snap election. The poll by the pollster whose final poll was closest to the correct result in the EU Referendum and has been the most accurate pollster in three out of the last four elections has given the Conservatives an enormous 16% lead over Labour. This would be a majority of over 100 even on Uniform National Swing.

The regional breakdown makes even worse reading for Labour. The Tory lead in England is 21% with a Tory lead in Wales as well. The Labour position is held up somewhat by slightly better figures in Scotland although with the SNP still polling 48% there it does not gain them any seats. The south & London region has a slightly lower swing suggesting Labour are still doing better in London, as well as the pollster traditional southern issue of trying to find a decent Tory sample in the South. Elsewhere it is carnage for Labour as would be set to lose a swathe of seats across the North and Midlands including all three seats in Stoke On Trent where they voted for Brexit big (One of these seats would be a UKIP Gain), and even Tony Blair’s old seat of Sedgefield could be under threat on these figures. Well known figures like Cat Smith and Vernon Coaker & Lillian Greenwood would also be under serious threat on these figures of not just losing, but losing big.

The regional breakdown has Labour down below 160 seats and the Tories winning a landslide majority of 164, above 400 seats, something Thatcher never did. Caveats of course, some local figures may hold on and this is only poll so far to suggest such an outcome is possible. In my Poll of polls the Tories increase their lead from 4.7% to 6.3%, this is aided by the fact BMG have not now reported for three months, a poll that was one of Labour’s better ones, thus while it will still show on the election figures page, it is not included in my poll of polls any longer until they report again. The poll of polls seat average sees the Tory projected majority up from 40 to 56. Again the BMG figures will still show on the page but will not be included in the average. All the latest figures can be found here. The figures for this ICM poll are below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

ICM 26/07/2016

VOTING INTENTION

Con 43% Lab 27% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con Lead 16%

REGIONAL BASED SEAT PROJECTION

Con 407 Lab 153 LD 10 SNP 55 Plaid Cymru 4 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority 164

 

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Could John Woodcock derail Jeremy Corbyn in weeks?

Blue_Moon2

First of all I want to tip my hat to Political Betting whose article on this you can read here. So who is John Woodcock? He is the Labour MP for Barrow & Furness. He represents a constituency that has an interest in the building of the four Trident submarines that form the basis of the UK’s renewed nuclear deterrent. This is a policy that three of the Labour candidates for leader are committed too. Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall have all said they will back the renewal. It will come as little surprise to those who follow these things that there is an odd one out, the extremist candidate Jeremy Corbyn, who is opposed to renewal and wants to scrap the project altogether.

This is where John Woodcock comes in. In the May election earlier this year, John Woodcock made a pledge. Now yes OK, I know Nick Clegg once famously made a pledge too and that did not work out too well, But John Woodcock is not going to become the leader of a junior coalition partner. His pledge was that he is committed to the renewal of Trident with all four boats being built, and in the interests of his constituents, if Labour did not commit to this, he would resign as an MP.

At the time of course Ed Miliband was leader, and for all Ed Miliband’s faults, he was not opposed to the renewal of Trident as his Shadow Defense Secretary Vernon Coaker made clear on several occasions. At the time the polls were tight and Mr Woodcock probably thought there was a chance Ed Miliband would be Prime Minister by now. At the time I suspect he certainly never though that even if Ed Miliband did lose and stand down, we would be in a position 27 days from the new leader being announced, that Jeremy Corbyn would be favourite to get the job.

And there it is. If Corbyn wins the abolition of Trident will be official Labour Party Policy. Mr Woodcock could of course play semantics, that a Tory majority will push the boats through anyway, and they will be built so he won’t resign. From what little I have seen of Mr Woodcock he does not strike me as that kind of person. So if Labour voting against Trident does mean he resigns, that will create a by election in a constituency where Mr Corbyn’s policy is likely to create much anger.

In May John Woodcock won Barrow & Furness by a mere 795 votes. In normal circumstances an opposition should not be losing early by elections, even William Hague at the start of his doomed Tory leadership held the first by election he fought in Uxbridge defending only an 800 majority at the time. but given the circumstances this seat would surely be under threat with an extremist Labour leadership under pressure straight away from a confident Conservative Party. The electability of Mr Corbyn will be put to the test straight away and it is an election he must win if it happens., By losing a seat Ed Miliband won within weeks, the reputation of ‘Unelectable’ will be reinforced several times over right from the start and something is is unlikely he would ever recover from. John Woodcock could kill the credibility of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership within weeks.

Saturday Newsround – Syria & Sugar

Blue_Moon2

UK personnel attack Syria under foreign orders

A row has broken out in the UK over the disclosure that Prime Minister David Cameron knew about British Personnel who had join or embedded as the term is know, in teams under foreign command, had been involved in air strikes on Syria. In 2013 The UK Parliament voted against the UK going into air strikes with Syria, This has caused criticism from both sides of the House of Commons. From the prime Minister own side MP for Billericay John Baron claimed this was of concern and outside the spirit of the parliamentary vote. Labour are unhappy too, although more that they did not know about it than the action itself as neither acting Labour leader Hariett Harman or Labour Defence spokesman Vernon Coaker were informed. For me opposing this is like opposing an English footballer learning a Spanish style of play if they signed for Real Madrid or Barcelona, that would be nonsense, and stating these personnel have done anything wrong by working to the aims of their leadership is also nonsense. Britain also benefits hugely from the experience of these exchange procedures. The critics also forget the vote was regarding attacking the Assad regime, not ISIS and it’s friends, which is what these airstrikes did.

NHS Chief says children should not be given any sugary drinks

Stewart Stevens the chief of NHS (Nation Health Service) England has been in the news lecturing us that children should not be given sugary drinks to avoid all sorts of potential diseases in later life. This is the same man who wrote the report stating the NHS needs £8 billion a year more to be sustained. Maybe £8 billion minus the departments who come up with these silly nanny state reports then, This is the darker side authoritarian side of the NHS that likes to interfere in something or other on an increasing basis. The NHS should concentrate in helping those who are actually ill, if we are going to have a state funded NHS, that should be it’s priority.