Moon Of Liberty Polling – February Polling Update

WAP

February Polling round up – Conservatives continue to dominate

Only Survation of the regularly reporting pollsters did not report in February and we had our first poll from Communicate Research this year. On Voting Intention every poll saw the Conservatives in a double digit lead ranging from 11% with Ipsos-Mori to 18% with YouGov and ICM. All pollsters have the Conservatives on 40% or more and Labour in the twenties, showing a stronger position for Theresa May and a weaker position for Jeremy Corbyn.

The lower lead from Ipsos-Mro fed into the seat projection, only they saw the projected Tory majority just short of three figures, all the others suggest the Conservative are on course for 350 seats or more on the new boundaries, thus ensuring a majority of 100 plus. ICM’s projected majority of 176 is a new record high projection, their projection of Labour on 141 seats is also a record low since I have been doing calculations on the new boundaries.

Labour’s position is particularly bad in the North West where swings to the Tories were consistently at 10% plus.The polling provides little solace anywhere except in London where they continue to be less hit than elsewhere. The SNP remain dominant in Scotland although on average they are now below 50% and the scope for the Tories to gain some seats in Scotland is certainly there. Labour are now consistently in third place behind the Tories on the Scottish breakdowns.

For the Lib Dems there continues to be little sign of their local election improvement showing up in national polls, although they have edged up into double figures in most cases. Ipsos-Mori offers them some hope giving them 14 seats on the new boundaries. The new boundaries will make their position more difficult, with strong targeting a result of around 20 seats, while by recent standards where pre-2015 they could get 50 plus, would actually be a very good result given the nature of the new boundaries. UKIP remain ahead of the Lib Dems on vote share, but there is little sign of them making any seat breakthroughs, which was backed up by the Stoke result last week.

The Conservatives average lead over is up from 12.8% in January to 14%. The average seat projection sees the Tory majority projection up to a record high of 136. Labour fall below 160 on 157. All the current numbers can be found here. A round up of this months polls is below.

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Blue_Moon2

MOON OF LIBERTY POLLING SCOREBOARD

February Polls

VOTING INTENTION

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 17%

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 44% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 18%

Opinium (13/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 27% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 5% – Con lead 13%

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 8% LD 13% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

Communciate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 41% Lab 26% UKIP 11% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 15%

SEAT PROJECTION (Based on regional patterns)

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 6 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 389 Lab 141 LD 8 SNP 34 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 176

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 346 Lab 177 LD 14 SNP 40 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 92

Communicate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 5 SNP 48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

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Political number round up – by elections and polls

WAP

Over the weekend we saw the first three voting intention polls. Please note with Opinium they do not provide the regional breakdowns I use to produce the regional seat projection so that is not included in the figures below.The polls show no bounce for Jeremy Corbyn and continue the trend of post election polls showing the Conservatives likely to increase their majority as things currently stand. In this weeks by-elections, the first set since Corbyn was elected leader, Labour had some decent results in already safe Haringey, Labour’s results were very poor elsewhere.

MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Headline UK voting intention figures for polls 19/09/2015

Opinium – Con 37% Lab 32% UKIP 14% LD 6% Green 3%

YouGov – Con 39% Lab 31% UKIP 16% LD 6% Green 3%

Com Res – Con 42% Lab 30% UKIP 13% LD 7% Green 3%

Region seat projection (Current boundaries)

YouGov – Con 350 Lab 214 LD 9 SNP 54 PC 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 NI 18Con majority 50

Com Res – Con 378 Lab 188 LD 6 SNP 55 PC 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 NI 18Con majority 106

By-Elections

MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD

Local Council By Elections 17/09

Noel Park (Haringey) Lab 1005 LD 247 Con 178 Green 124 UKIP 48 TUSC 38Lab Hold – swing from May 2014 LD-Lab 2.1%

Woodside (Haringey) Lab 1279 LD 435 Con 141 Green 122 UKIP 95 Lab Hold – Swing form May 2014 Lab-LD 3%

Richmond East (Richmondshire) Con 307 Rich Ind 289 LD 136 Lab 41Con Hold – Swing from May 2015 Ind-Con 0.1% Both Con & Ind up 7%

Bourn (S Cambs) Con 579 LD 247 Lab 235 UKIP 121 Green 64Con Hold – Swing from May 2014 LD-Con 3.4%

East Ayr (South Ayrshire) (AV system used) 1st Pref Con 1527 SNP 1507 Lab 642 Ind 218 Green 76 – 1st pref swing from May 2012 Con-SNP 0.2% – SNP Hold the seat after 4th round by 35 votes 50.2% to 49.8%

National projected share based on last 20 by election fought – Con 34.8% Lab 31.1% LD 16.9% UKIP 8.3% Green 3.3%

Conclusion

Conservatives – Still the dominant force in England. The Tories will be pleased to hold off a strong Independent challenge in Richmond, The Bourn result was excellent with a big increase in share in a seat that Labour needed a 5% swing to gain, the sort of seat a Government should be vulnerable they but won easily. The Ayr result will also be heartening going into the Hollyrood elections as they would have won on the First Past The Post system used for Hollyrood on the constituency section and Ayr is one of those seats the Tories will be fighting hard. As for the polls, they continue to dominate and all the evidence remains right now that if Corbyn stays, the Tories will win a big victory come May 2020, although there is some variation as to how much. It is the second Com Res poll since May that has a 100 plus majoirty projection. All other pollster so far have it considerably lower, but all show the Tories making at least some additional gains.

Labour – The Haringey results are something to hold onto but otherwise there is not much here for Corbyn’s Labour. The Bourn result is the sort of seat Labour should be competing in, they failed miserably and fell to third. Their failure to compete in Ayr will also be a big disappointment, although the polls do have them improving a bit in Scotland, only 16% behind with YouGov with a 28% share. In England the Labour poll results are even worse with no sign at all of recovery, if anything, they are losing more than back in May. Jeremy Corbyn is also the first leader in a long time to being with a negative favourability rating.

Lib Dem – They continue to re-build locally. No spectacular result this week but finishing second in Bourn beating Labour is a seat they did not look in any contention in is a good result. The frustration will be what they are building locally, is not translating into nation poll numbers, where they remain well behind UKIP. Tim Farron still has a big job, but with Labour in a mess right now, a big opportunity too.

SNP – The SNP continue to dominate Scotland although Ayr was mighty close, it continues their run of winning every local by election since May. The polls still have them polling around the 50% mark. Nicola Sturgeon remains dominant in Scotland, albeit maybe a percentage or two off the recent highs. There is no sign the SNP will be in any trouble at all come May’s Hollyrood elections.