Over the weekend we saw the first three voting intention polls. Please note with Opinium they do not provide the regional breakdowns I use to produce the regional seat projection so that is not included in the figures below.The polls show no bounce for Jeremy Corbyn and continue the trend of post election polls showing the Conservatives likely to increase their majority as things currently stand. In this weeks by-elections, the first set since Corbyn was elected leader, Labour had some decent results in already safe Haringey, Labour’s results were very poor elsewhere.
MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD
Headline UK voting intention figures for polls 19/09/2015
Opinium – Con 37% Lab 32% UKIP 14% LD 6% Green 3%
YouGov – Con 39% Lab 31% UKIP 16% LD 6% Green 3%
Com Res – Con 42% Lab 30% UKIP 13% LD 7% Green 3%
Region seat projection (Current boundaries)
YouGov – Con 350 Lab 214 LD 9 SNP 54 PC 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 NI 18 – Con majority 50
Com Res – Con 378 Lab 188 LD 6 SNP 55 PC 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 NI 18 – Con majority 106
By-Elections
MOON OF LIBERTY ELECTION SCOREBOARD
Local Council By Elections 17/09
Noel Park (Haringey) Lab 1005 LD 247 Con 178 Green 124 UKIP 48 TUSC 38 – Lab Hold – swing from May 2014 LD-Lab 2.1%
Woodside (Haringey) Lab 1279 LD 435 Con 141 Green 122 UKIP 95 – Lab Hold – Swing form May 2014 Lab-LD 3%
Richmond East (Richmondshire) Con 307 Rich Ind 289 LD 136 Lab 41 – Con Hold – Swing from May 2015 Ind-Con 0.1% Both Con & Ind up 7%
Bourn (S Cambs) Con 579 LD 247 Lab 235 UKIP 121 Green 64 – Con Hold – Swing from May 2014 LD-Con 3.4%
East Ayr (South Ayrshire) (AV system used) 1st Pref Con 1527 SNP 1507 Lab 642 Ind 218 Green 76 – 1st pref swing from May 2012 Con-SNP 0.2% – SNP Hold the seat after 4th round by 35 votes 50.2% to 49.8%
National projected share based on last 20 by election fought – Con 34.8% Lab 31.1% LD 16.9% UKIP 8.3% Green 3.3%
Conclusion
Conservatives – Still the dominant force in England. The Tories will be pleased to hold off a strong Independent challenge in Richmond, The Bourn result was excellent with a big increase in share in a seat that Labour needed a 5% swing to gain, the sort of seat a Government should be vulnerable they but won easily. The Ayr result will also be heartening going into the Hollyrood elections as they would have won on the First Past The Post system used for Hollyrood on the constituency section and Ayr is one of those seats the Tories will be fighting hard. As for the polls, they continue to dominate and all the evidence remains right now that if Corbyn stays, the Tories will win a big victory come May 2020, although there is some variation as to how much. It is the second Com Res poll since May that has a 100 plus majoirty projection. All other pollster so far have it considerably lower, but all show the Tories making at least some additional gains.
Labour – The Haringey results are something to hold onto but otherwise there is not much here for Corbyn’s Labour. The Bourn result is the sort of seat Labour should be competing in, they failed miserably and fell to third. Their failure to compete in Ayr will also be a big disappointment, although the polls do have them improving a bit in Scotland, only 16% behind with YouGov with a 28% share. In England the Labour poll results are even worse with no sign at all of recovery, if anything, they are losing more than back in May. Jeremy Corbyn is also the first leader in a long time to being with a negative favourability rating.
Lib Dem – They continue to re-build locally. No spectacular result this week but finishing second in Bourn beating Labour is a seat they did not look in any contention in is a good result. The frustration will be what they are building locally, is not translating into nation poll numbers, where they remain well behind UKIP. Tim Farron still has a big job, but with Labour in a mess right now, a big opportunity too.
SNP – The SNP continue to dominate Scotland although Ayr was mighty close, it continues their run of winning every local by election since May. The polls still have them polling around the 50% mark. Nicola Sturgeon remains dominant in Scotland, albeit maybe a percentage or two off the recent highs. There is no sign the SNP will be in any trouble at all come May’s Hollyrood elections.
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