Moon Elections & Polling Round-Up

Moon Polling & Elections

LOCAL BY ELECTIONS

There were four by elections this week in different parts of the country but both created by the deaths of councillors who served at district and county level. All were Conservative defences and they held all four seats, however the result pattern were very different. Two of the by elections were in the Wyre area of Lancashire in the constituency of Cat Smith who is MP for Lancaster & Fleetwood. Although the Tories held both seats there were heavy swings towards the Labour Party who will be much the happier with both results

In stark contrast were the by elections in the Thanet area of Kent. Not only did the Tories hold both but saw their vote go up, in one case by over 23%. Some of this will be due to UKIP not standing in the district seat however the Tories had a swing in their favour against Labour in the county seat where UKIP did stand. The Kent results were much more impressive for the Conservatives.

There is little change on the projected share this week, the Tories lead over Labour nudges up slightly to 3.4% from 3.3% last week as the good result for both sides even themselves out. All the current polling and election projected share numbers can be found here

YOUGOV POLL

YouGov released the first Westminster voting intention poll this week. It recorded a 1% lead for Labour, slightly down from 2% in their last one before Christmas. Labour’s average poll lead is currently 1.7% and this one does not change the narrative of the two sides in general stalemate. The breakdown suggests Labour improvement in Scotland and better performance in the North of England is the reasons they are currently ahead. The Lib Dems edged up to 9% in this poll, something they will hope becomes a trend rather than a one off. The poll also gave Theresa May a 6% lead over Jeremy Corbyn as best PM, the same as their last poll.

All the current polling numbers can be found here

2ND EU REFERENDUM POLLING

Communicate Research released polling on support for a 2nd EU Referendum in the light of Nigel Farage’s suggestion that it may happen after all. The poll showed an 8% lead against having a 2nd Referendum 43% for and 51% against. YouGov found a similar result when it asked a similar question in November. The poll also asked the remain-leave question which came out 52% to 48% in favor of remain. The relevance of this while there is a majority against holding one anyway is dubious. Also remember many polls had a similar remain lead right up until the day itself and is within margin of error of the actual referendum result.

MOON OF LIBERTY LOCAL BY ELECTION RESULTS

Wyre Rural (Lancashire) – Con 1745 Lab 925 Green 237 – Con Hold – Swing (May 2017) Con-Lab 12%

Preesall (Wyre) – Con 930 Lab 753 – Con Hold – Swing (May 2015) Con-Lab 9.7%

Birchington & Thanet Rural (Kent) – Con 2534 Lab 865 LD 561 UKIP 357 Green 169 – Con Hold – Swing (May 2017) Lab-Con 1.5%

Thanet Villages (Thanet) – Con 620 LD 313 Lab 206 Green 66 Ind 52 – Con Hold – Swing n/a as no LD last time – Con vote up 23.6% on May 2017

WESTMINSTER VOTING INTENTION POLL

YouGov – Lab 41% Con 40% LD 9% UKIP 3% Green 2% – Lab Lead 1%

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Moon Reflection – It’s time to talk about the EU

Politics

Reflection of the Moon comment

It’s time to talk about the EU

Whichever side you fall, it is an historic time for Britain. The referendum to determine if the United Kingdom should remain inside or leave the European Union will take place on Thursday 23rd June. The Prime Minister David Cameron, after two whole days in Brussels, has finalised the basis on which the Referendum will be fought. He argues his deal means Britain will be ‘Stronger, safer and better off in the European Union.’ That quote is important, as it is already clear from those who want to remain in the EU that those points are going to be the basis of the Remain sides argument.

So what of the deal? One of the big points Cameron has been fighting on is an emergency break for migrant benefits and a stop on them sending benefits home to their children in other countries. Skeptics say this was always small beet compared to the big issues of controlling boarders and reducing migrant numbers, currently running at around a net of 300.000 a year. What has been agreed is a pretty confusing 7 year break with benefits to be phased back in after four years. It also will not be renewed after the seven years, which ties the hands of a successor who has no room to agree an extension. The right to send benefits to another country has also not been stopped as Cameron wanted, but child benefit will be paid on the basis of living standards in each country for new claimants and will be phased in for existing claimants from 2020.The costs of setting this system up will likely be more than will be saved in paying lower benefits, as a result it is hard to see what exactly has been gained at all.

There is a specific commitment to Britain not being part of ‘Ever Closer Union.’This is something to be cautiously welcomed, however it is broad and open to wide interpretation. As UKIP MEP Roger Helmer pointed out on 5 Live’s Steven Nolan show last night, every regulation from Brussels is in a way ever closer union because every directive is one more law they are imposing on us that we cannot decide ourselves.What it likely means in reality is that should there be further treaty discussions, it gives a future British PM an negotiating position of saying something disliked is ‘ever closer union’ and therefore the UK should have an opt out. This could lead to countless hours of wrangling in future summits and at home of which points meet this criteria. It also means the idea this Referendum will end Euro battles if we vote to remain is a fallacy, it ensures the issue will not go away as every future fight is grounds for another EU argument. David Cameron has claimed this point means we will never be part of the Euro or Schengen, but then we had opt outs on these anyway. He claims it means we could never be part of an EU army, that is certainly welcome, and we will never be part of a European Superstate, whatever that means in reality, I suspect few who support it even really know.

The deal also addresses concerns that non Euro countries could be discriminated against due to decision of the Eurozone. What has been agreed is that any nation can raise this concern, although all it appears to trigger is a European council meeting where as far as I can figure out, the Eurozone countries can then vote for the measure anyway.Cameron thinks this is important in protecting the city of London, given it’s a small technical EU process device, this appears to be a very grand claim.

So not everything in the deal is unwelcome and at least will give a future PM a standing on which to fight for Britain should we vote to remain in the EU. But it does not really deal with the big issues of boarder controls, sovereignty and the freedom of the nation state one hoped would be on the table. Looking ahead to the Referendum this deal is not substantial enough to base a decision of whether to stay or leave. The Prime Minister’s quote of ‘stronger, safer and better off’ are actually a better basis to assess the real issues.

So we would be stronger in the EU according to the Prime Minister? This is the most difficult of the three areas to look at as what does ‘stronger’ mean? Does it mean our place in the world? Britain will still be in the UN, the Commonwealth, NATO and have a permanent seat on the UN security council, indeed that particular role would be more secure outside the EU as that seat is something the EU has long eyed and wanted to take off the UK, something it would not be able to contemplate if we were not in the club. Outside the EU we could also join the World Trade Organisation as Britain (This also would restrict tariffs the EU could place on Britain if the EU decided to play tariff war after we left.) Currently we rely on the EU to speak for us in the WTO. We of course would have no influence on what the EU does itself. You can argue that is sufficient a loss of influence in itself to weaken the UK and thus were are ‘stronger’ in the EU, it is an argument that is difficult to sustain however.Why would we want influence in an organisation we are no longer a part of anyway?

Leaving the EU also means we can make our own free trade agreements. In the EU we have to impose a common external tariff on goods coming outside the EU. Outside the EU this would no longer be an obligation. This would cut costs for exporters outside the EU that a report this week showed was hugely on the increase (With exports to the EU falling.) We can have a free trade agreement that suits the UK with Canada, the USA, Iceland, Norway, China, Russia, India and any other nation outside the EU. As of now this can only be done through the EU on the EU’s terms. It could be argued such a power would make Britain stronger not weaker outside the EU.

So if being stronger is impossible to prove, how about being ‘safer.’ The Prime Minister sites the European Arrest Warrant should we want to extradite a terrorist from another EU country. So could this not be done before the European Arrest Warrant? Of course, there was still huge co-operation and agreements between nations before the European arrest warrants indeed all the EWA did was merge existing agreements. Is there no co-operation with nations outside the EU, of course there is. For example this agreement on wider cyber security between Britain and the UK. The idea Europol will stop co-operating with a nation that has MI5, MI6 & GCHQ, the best security agencies in Europe is nonsense. Leaving the EU also has no baring on our membership of the much more important ‘five eyes’ intelligence group including Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the USA.Besides which, the European Arrest Warrant, if it has any benefit at all, is merely to chase those who have already committed the crime, it does not prevent it which is what would actually make us safer.

In that respect Europol, the EU creation to share intelligence across boarders, is a failure. Simply look at the recent Paris attacks which failures in communication played a big part. Those coordinating the attacks were not based in France, they were based elsewhere in Europe. They were able to take full advantage of the boarderless areas of the EU to move around and put everything in place. Some call it ‘a free passport for terrorists.’ If the EU did not exist and all the nations had their own boarder controls, would that attack have been easier or more difficult to pull off? More difficult of course as their room for movement would have been restricted.. Are we therefore ‘safer’ in the EU? While not being in Scehngen protects us, free movement would still be part of what we have to accept that means we are not immune. If an attack like that is easier to pull off because it is in the EU and harder if we were individual nations, it is clear we are not safer in the EU and the attempt to create an EU wide police and security force is a failure.  Long standing and respected Telegraph defence correspondent Con Coughlin has also written about the subject of safety within the EU in detail. He also concludes the EU is making us less, not more safe.

So how about ‘better off.’ This now comes down to the economic argument. Some of which I have already covered in the ‘stronger’ debate but the better off also covers a central claim of the Remain side namely that ‘3 million jobs are linked to the EU.’ It should be noted first the change of language from the Remain side, they used to claim this number of jobs were ‘at risk’ or ‘would be lost’ if we left the EU. Now they are only ‘linked’ which in itself is a victory for the leave side. A 2014 report from the Center for Business and Economics research Quoted in a report called ‘The Jobs Myth’ page 10-11, also found that there were 4.2 million EU jobs ‘linked’ to the UK, meaning they have more jobs linked to us than we do them.

This balance means the chances of the EU not wanting to quickly agree a free trade agreement with us are small. The same report refutes that millions of jobs would be at risk even if not however, due to protections under WTO rules. So what about the wider economy? What would be the full impact of leaving and would we be worse off? This is a question Woodford investments wanted to get to the bottom of. They asked Capital Economics to do an independent report on the full impact of the balance of risks of staying in and leaving the EU. The report can be found here.

Now the report does not claim everything about the EU is bad, nor does it cover the fact that there will be some losers if we leave the EU. For example, there would be at least a short period where exporters into the EU would face some tariffs they currently don’t, that is fact and to claim otherwise would be wrong. However, overall the conclusion is the economic impact of leaving the EU is neutral, with pros and cons, losses against opportunities and the balance of those who again and those who lose would ultimately be neutral in terms of the overall UK economy. Those who advocate leave should not overestimate any claims about us being hugely better off, but neither is the economic impact a reason not to leave the European Union. The conclusion is that we would neither be particularly worse or better off, and the decision to stay or leave therefore should not be based on the economic impact.

As a result there is no clear evidence, as the remain campaign will claim, that we are stronger, safer or better off in the EU. Stronger is more a matter of opinion,we would on balance probably be safer outside the EU and the economic impact is neutral. That does not mean we are better off (Financially and economically) out either and those who will claim that on the leave side are in my view exaggerating their case.This Referendum will open other cans of worms, especially if England and Scotland vote different ways. Scottish Nationalism could raise it’s head again.My view has always been that is a matter for the Scots, it is not a reason to colour ones view of the Referendum, however much some will try and skew it that way. If the Scottish Nationalists can use this for their own independence agenda, bully for them.

It also means normally great friends and allies will disagree, as David Cameron and Michael Gove have demonstrated already. and David Cameron’s position may be on the line. To be clear I respect what David Cameron has done, I respect his work in the negotiation, I respect the fact he has delivered the Referendum. (Ed Miliband would not have even given us one) He remains far superior an option as Prime Minister to the alternatives available, but on this issue, sadly, as with many people I respect who will back remain, I can’t agree with his conclusion. I am also acutely aware this will put me in the same camp as a number of people I have no time for whatsoever, as Nigel Farage’s extraordinary unveiling of George Galloway last night night shows only too well.

So how to vote if stronger is questionable, safer is dubious and better off is really economically neutral? Ultimately it comes down to the big picture. What sort of nation, or perhaps not do you want Britain to be? If you believe in Europe, working together ultimately being better then you should vote to remain. If you believe Britain should be a free nation state with laws determined by the people you elect, you should vote to leave. I call my blog the Moon Of Liberty because freedom is my top priority. Free nation states are an important aspect of freedom. I believe this is actually an exciting opportunity to explore a different path, form new friendship, create new alliances based on freedom and democracy rather than remain in a depressing, one size fits all EU with authoritarian, financially irresponsible (The EU has not has it’s accounts audited for over a decade) values. as a result I through this blog in an activities elsewhere, will advocate a vote to leave the European Union.

 

Moon Polling – Ipsos-Mori

Polling

Ipsos-Mori poll – 17th Feb 2016

Labour close the gap to 6% but projected Tory majority unchanged at 64

VOTING INTENTION

Ipsos-Mori have released their February poll showing a different trendline to ICM and Com Res that were out over the last few days. The headline voting intention figure sees the Tory lead over Labour down from 9% in January to 6% this month. The poll detail shows the old South of England problem returning giving Labour a big swing in the south, as against modest to medium swing to the Tories everywhere else against the May 2015 result. This along with the sample in the raw data being heavily skewed towards public sector workers is why Labour’s position holds up better than in other polls.

The 7% swing in the south (excluding London) would only have Labour picking up 13 seats in the south against the Tories which is easily wiped out by Tory gains in other regions. This shows the problem Labour will have even if they did very well in the south but not elsewhere as this poll suggests, as in the main they need huge swings to gain a serious number of seats there. The seat projection actually sees the Tories get exactly the same number of seats as in the January poll with a net increase of 26 seats on 357, meaning an overall majority of 64. In Scotland the SNP are recorded at 55%, and would take all 59 seats Scottish seats as a result. The poll is another showing no breakthrough for the Lib Dems.

EU REFERENDUM

The poll also asked the EU Referendum question and that too sees no change from January with Remain maintaining it’s 19% lead. The dynamics described above may suggest why this poll shows no change while the other poll that is done by phone, Com Res, saw a substantial swing to the leave campaign. The skew in this poll towards public sector workers and the high SNP figure mean an increase within groups known to be more likely to vote for remain. The likely exaggeration of Labour position in the south also may help the remain figure where a bigger Tory lead would have closed the gap.

CONCLUSION

While there is evidence to suggest this poll probably exaggerates Labour (In terms of headline voting percentage at least, though not so much in terms of seat projection) and the Remain in the EU positions, this is a poll for both to hold onto. Labour can use it to challenge the assumption that the Tories have increased their lead, and remain supporters can point to this poll to claim the rot of support moving to the leave campaign has stopped. A poll to challenge perceptions, that are sometimes more important in what happens next than the reality. Also of course while this poll of the last few is the outlier, the lesson of May 2015 is that we should not assume the outlier is always wrong.Whatever the details, this poll is good news for Remain, and some relief for Labour and Jeremy Corbyn.

THE NUMBERS (Poll of Poll averages)

Voting Intention – The Tory lead over Labour falls from 9% to 8.5%

Seat Projection – The Tory projected Overall Majority remains unchanged at 78

EU Referendum – The Remain lead in the EU Referendum phone poll average is unchanged at 13.5%

All the updated numbers can be found here. A breakdown of the Ipsos-Mori poll is below.

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MOON OF LIBERTY POLL SCOREBOARD

Ipsos-Mori Poll (17/02/2016)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION

Con 39% Lab 33% LD 6% UKIP 12% Green 3% – Con lead 6%

REGIONAL SEAT PROJECTION

Con 357 Lab 204 LD 7 SNP 59 UKIP 1 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18 –

Con Overall Majority of 64

EU REFERENDUM

Remain 55% Leave 36% – Remain lead 19%

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Moon Politics – PMQ’s 03 Feb 2016

Politics

Prime Minister’s Questions 12:00 PM Tuesday 03 Feb 2016 – From the House of Commons, The Palace of Westminster

Cancer policy exchange leaves one wondering about Corbyn’s listening skills

With the Prime Minister on the ropes with the press and his backbenchers over his EU ‘deal’ PMQ’s will have been a relief for David Cameron. Given there was a statement on the EU issue to come later it would have been odd if Jeremy Corbyn had led on that in this exchange. He instead went on the issue of cancer and the NHS generally. He started in regard to cancer waiting times that were not being met. Cameron conceded one of his three targets, a target around treatment within 62 days, was not being met but stated this was one of three targets around cancer treatment and the other two were being met, which, you have guessed it, were not under Labour.

Corbyn moved on to ask about cuts in radiologists. At first Cameron appeared stumped and went on to make general points about NHS investment. It was not until Corbyn had asked his third question about cuts in public health funds that he found the bit in his file that I assume had the figures. Radiologists were up 15% since he became PM, He also contradicted the public heath cuts point, then having dealt with the substantive points, his wider context began to make more sense. The Tories can do these things because they invested, unlike Labour who have cut the NHS in Wales, and he (Corbyn) was responsible for Labour.

Corbyn then resorted to a trait that looked as bad this week as it was last. Accusing the PM of not answering the question when he actually had. He then did this again when asking about ESA cuts. Cameron rightly pointed out someone with cancer would be in the support group whose benefit would not be cut even under the new proposals. On this Cameron gave a very specific and targeted answer, yet Corbyn still accused him of not answering. It makes it look like he is not listening and comes across very badly. To compound this he asked the same question again via an email from ‘Martin,’ using his failed ‘Peoples Question’ regime, and fell into an easily avoidable trap had he been listening the first time by reading out a scenario in which, as Cameron had already explained, the benefits would not be cut in that scenario anyway. An easy one for the PM to dispatch, with some added extra digs at the Welsh NHS including numerous areas where Labour run Wales were doing much worse Tory run England to boot.

Elsewhere the SNP leader in the commons Angus Robertson challenged the PM on the EU Referendum timing regarding a letter signed by Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones and Northern Ireland’s First Minister and Deputy First Minister Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness asking the Referendum should not be in June out of respect to other election. Cameron’s response was revealing, stating he agreed with Alex Salmond that it should not be ‘within six weeks.’ Given the rumoured date is 23rd June, exactly seven weeks after these elections, the response was more telling than normal. Beyond that David Rutley (Con MP for Macclesfield) had some fun at the expense of SNP and Labour Trident policy asking whose policy was more dangerous, Cameron responded Labour now wanted to use the submarines to move defence personnel around ‘The most expensive Uber service by boat.’ Overall another easy day for David Cameron, While his opponent needs to start listening before assuming the question has not been answered in something that is becoming an increasingly poor trait.

MOON OF LIBERTY VERDICT (Out of 5)

David Cameron 3 – Jeremy Corbyn 1 – Not as clear cut as last week, but another very easy win for David Cameron, as Corbyn continues to fall into all sorts of avoidable traps.