Moon Of Liberty Elections – Local by Elections 9th March 2017


Local by Elections

9th March Local by Election round-up

This weeks seven by Elections continued the general trends we have seen. The Tories had a very good night on the whole, their gain from Labour in Waltham Cross, Broxbourne was the third week in a row they had made a gain from Labour. Victory in Derwent in Derby shows continued strength in a marginal area of North Derby and although the gain was technically from UKIP due to this being a rolling ward that elects 3 members over 3 years, Labour won the ward in 2015 & 2016 so was as god as another victory against Labour as well.

The Lib Dems got one excellent gain from the Tories in West Oxfordshire but there was not huge progress anywhere else, once again showing the limitations to their improvement. They are still polling well enough for a 20% plus projected share though on what was a decent night for them.The story is less rosy for UKIP and Labour for whom this weeks results will heap more misery continuing the string of poor results. UKIP’s share was down everywhere, Labour’s was down everywhere except Harrow, which shows again London is performing in a more positive way for Labour than everywhere else in the country.

This week sees the Tories UK projected share lead over Labour increase to 6%. UKIP are now below 7% and the Lib Dems are down a bit but still above 20% on 20.4%. All the most recent numbers can be found here.




Local by Election Results – 9th March 2017

Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield (W Oxfordshire) LD 567 Con 504 Lab 71 UKIP 38 Green 35LD GAIN FROM CONSwing (May 2016) Con-LD 15.1%

Roxbourne (Harrow)Lab 1554 Con 533 LD 240 UKIP 148Lab HoldSwing (May 2014) Con-Lab 7.1%

Hertford Castle (East Hertfordshire) Con 593 Lab 207 LD 188 Green 154 UKIP 65Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Lab-Con 5.5%

Exton (Rutland) Con 238 LD 123 UKIP 39Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-LD 2.5%

Red Horse (Straford Upon Avon)Con 476 LD 266 UKIP 92 Green 58Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-LD 14.6%

Derwent (Derby)Con 789 Lab 611 UKIP 537 LD 192CON GAIN FROM UKIP Swing (May 2016) UKIP-Con 2.7%

Waltham Cross (Broxbourne) Con 650 Lab 646 UKIP 200 LD 89CON GAIN FROM LABSwing (May 2016) Lab-Con 5.6%





Moon Of Liberty Polling – February Polling Update


February Polling round up – Conservatives continue to dominate

Only Survation of the regularly reporting pollsters did not report in February and we had our first poll from Communicate Research this year. On Voting Intention every poll saw the Conservatives in a double digit lead ranging from 11% with Ipsos-Mori to 18% with YouGov and ICM. All pollsters have the Conservatives on 40% or more and Labour in the twenties, showing a stronger position for Theresa May and a weaker position for Jeremy Corbyn.

The lower lead from Ipsos-Mro fed into the seat projection, only they saw the projected Tory majority just short of three figures, all the others suggest the Conservative are on course for 350 seats or more on the new boundaries, thus ensuring a majority of 100 plus. ICM’s projected majority of 176 is a new record high projection, their projection of Labour on 141 seats is also a record low since I have been doing calculations on the new boundaries.

Labour’s position is particularly bad in the North West where swings to the Tories were consistently at 10% plus.The polling provides little solace anywhere except in London where they continue to be less hit than elsewhere. The SNP remain dominant in Scotland although on average they are now below 50% and the scope for the Tories to gain some seats in Scotland is certainly there. Labour are now consistently in third place behind the Tories on the Scottish breakdowns.

For the Lib Dems there continues to be little sign of their local election improvement showing up in national polls, although they have edged up into double figures in most cases. Ipsos-Mori offers them some hope giving them 14 seats on the new boundaries. The new boundaries will make their position more difficult, with strong targeting a result of around 20 seats, while by recent standards where pre-2015 they could get 50 plus, would actually be a very good result given the nature of the new boundaries. UKIP remain ahead of the Lib Dems on vote share, but there is little sign of them making any seat breakthroughs, which was backed up by the Stoke result last week.

The Conservatives average lead over is up from 12.8% in January to 14%. The average seat projection sees the Tory majority projection up to a record high of 136. Labour fall below 160 on 157. All the current numbers can be found here. A round up of this months polls is below.




February Polls


YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 17%

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 44% Lab 26% UKIP 13% LD 8% Green 4% – Con lead 18%

Opinium (13/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 27% UKIP 14% LD 7% Green 5% – Con lead 13%

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 40% Lab 29% UKIP 8% LD 13% Green 4% – Con lead 11%

Communciate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 41% Lab 26% UKIP 11% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 15%

SEAT PROJECTION (Based on regional patterns)

YouGov (28/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 6 SNP47 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162

ICM (20/02/2017) – Con 389 Lab 141 LD 8 SNP 34 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 176

Ipsos-Mori (18/02/2017) – Con 346 Lab 177 LD 14 SNP 40 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 92

Communicate Research (11/02/2017) – Con 381 Lab 143 LD 5 SNP 48 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 162


Moon Of Liberty Rugby Union – Six Nations Round 3


Rugby Union – Six Nations – Round 3

Scotland v Wales at Murrayfield


Scotland improvement continues with impressive win

Scotland’s improvement in recent times continued with a big win over Wales, their first in a decade. A Liam Williams try helped give Wales a 13-9 lead at half time but Scotland fought back. Tommy Seymour and Tim Visser went over and excellent defense helped them shut out Wales in the second half. The Welsh never recovered from confusion with the game ties 13-13 and they had a kickable penalty but indecision led them going to the corner from which they failed to score. Finn Russell kicked 5 penalties as Scotland went on to win 29-13 and set up the chance to win a triple crown, if they can win at Twickenham.

Report (BBC Sport)

Ireland v France in Dublin


Discipline sees Ireland win in the rain

Despite a good start from France, Ireland played a controlled and disciplined game to claim the win and keep their championship hopes alive. France took a 6-0 lead but Connor Murray’s try, the only one of the game, gave Ireland the lead at half time. Ireland played an excellent territorial game in the second half with 2 penalties and a drop goal from Johnny Sexton helping Ireland complete a 19-9 victory that will not live long in the memory but shows how far Ireland have come as a side from that poor first game in Scotland.

Report (BBC Sport)

England v Italy at Twickenham


England solve the Italy puzzle

Italy came to Twickenham with a new tactic of not competing at the ruck to stop the application of an offside line which caused chaos amongst the England side in the first half. The tactics set up by Italy coach Connor O’Shea saw Italy take a shock 10-5 lead as Giovanbattista Venditti reacted first to a kick that hit the post to score just before half time. England solved the issue in the second half by exploiting the space down the middle. Tries from Danny Care, Ben T’eo, Elliott Daly and two from Jack Nowell saw England run away with the win, their 16th in a row, in the end and keep their attempt at back to back Grand Slams on track.

Report (BBC Sport)




International Rugby Union Results

Six Nations – Round 3

Scotland 29Wales 13At Murrayfield, Edinburgh

Ireland 19France 9At The Aviva Stadium, Dublin

England 36 Italy 15At Twickenham, Richmond Upon Thames, London

Moon Of Liberty Star ManTommy Seymour (Scotland)



Moon Of Liberty Rugby Union – Six Nations Round 1


Rugby Union Six Nations – Round 1

Scotland v Ireland at Murrayfield


Hogg first half blitz too much for Ireland

Scotland won their first game against another home nation against Ireland at Murrayfield in one of their best displays for many a year. Stuart Hogg was the star scoring two of Scotland three first half tries to put the Scots 21-8 up at half time. Ireland fought back through tries from Keith Earls and Ian Henderson but Scotland regained control sealing the game with two late penalties from Greig Laidlaw. Ireland who have lost a number of players over the last couple of years have plenty of talent but it may take some time to re-make the team. Scotland on the other hand look on the way up, how far can they go in this six nations remains to be seen.

Full Report (BBC Sport)

England v France at Twickenham


Substitutes the key as England see of French power

England have stretched their unbeaten run to 15 games after a tight 19-16 win over France. The French were in control up front for much of the game and looked as if they may have made the key break to win it when Rabah Slimani went over to give the visitors a 16-12 lead. However substitutes Danny Care, James Haskill and Ben Te’o from England upped the pace and intensity as Owen Farrell began to dictate the game as the French began to tire. The winning try came with 12 minutes left as Farrell’s excellent pass sent Te’o crashing over. There were some frantic moments towards the end as France tried to find another score, But England have the win and their quest for a rare back to back Grand Slam will continue, as well as remaining unbeaten under Eddie Jones.

Full Report (BBC Sport)

Italy v Wales in Rome


Wales ease to victory in impressive second half

Wales moved to a comfortable win in Rome against Italy after an early scare. The Italians played with the confidence of a team who recently got their first win against South Africa with excellent first half defence and took their chance through Edoardo Gori with a smartly worked forwards try to lead 7-3 at half time. Wales then took control in the second half as Italy ran out of steam. Tried from Jonathan Davies, Liam Williams and a long range effort from George North meant Wales pulled away to a 33-7 lead. They thought they may have had a fourth try and bonus point in the final play but that was denied by the TMO as Williams had been deemed to have lost the ball over the line. Tougher tests for Wales await, none more so than Champions England in Cardiff next week. For Italy, despite a good first half it looks like it will be another long championship for the Azure.

Full Report (BBC Sport)




International Rugby Union Results

Six Nations Round 1

Scotland 27 Ireland 22At Murrayfield, Edinburgh, Scotland

England 19 France 16 At Twickenham, London

Italy 7Wales 33At The Olympic Stadium, Rome, Italy

MOON OF LIBERTY STAR MAN Stuart Hogg (Scotland)


Moon Of Liberty Snooker – UK Masters Final



UK Masters Final in London – O’Sullivan v Perry


O’Sullivan claims record seventh UK Masters Title

Ronnie O’Sullivan won a record seventh Masters title with a 10-7 win over Joe Perry at the Alexandra Palace in London. It was Perry who started the better taking a 4-1 lead but missed a red to clinch the next. O’Sullivan took advantage and then won the next two to end the first session 4-4. The Rocket kept the momentum going winning the next four frames to go 8-4 up. Perry took the next two but O’Sullivan wiped out hopes of a comeback with his only century break to move 9-6 ahead and one away. Perry took the 16th frame but after a long safety exchange on the final red, Perry made the error to allow O’Sullivan in to clear up and surpass Stephen Hendry’s six Masters titles without having played at his best by his own admission. A scary though for the rest of the field heading towards the World Championship’s

Full report (BBC Sport)




Snooker results

UK Masters SnookerAt The Alexandra Palace, Harringay, London

Semi-Finals (Best of 11)

Ronnie O’Sullivan (England) 6Marco Fu (Hong Kong) 4

Joe Perry (England) 6Barry Hawkins (England) 5

FINAL (Best of 19)

Ronnie O’Sullivan (England) 10Joe Perry (England) 7


Moon Of Liberty Polling & Elections – YouGov, Ipsos-Mori & by election in Bromsgrove


Polling – YouGov & Ipsos-Mori

Current trend of a 100 plus Tory majority projections continue

Two polls were released on the 19th January, a new polls from YouGov and the first from Ipsos Mori since I began calculating the seat breakdown on the new boundaries. YouGov sees rotten news for Labour, Their voting intention down to 25% with a battering in the North of England and Yorkshire would see a projected Conservative majority of 144. Ipsos-Mori is not quite that bad, but still sees a Tory majority of 114 and similar figures in the North and Yorkshire regions, the only real difference is they lose slightly less in the Midlands and Wales than YouGov showed. Either way it continues to look very healthy for Theresa May and very poor for Jeremy Corbyn. On both sets of figures Copeland where there is an upcoming parliamentary by election would fall to the Tories, it will be interesting to see if the by election bares this out.

Both polls showed the SNP below 50% and while they remain well ahead in Scotland, they appear to be falling from their peaks in line with recent Scottish local by elections where their invincibility of a couple of years ago is not as strong as it was. Ipsos-Mori also has some good news for the Liberal Democrats with some stronger figures in London and the South, the first and so far only sign in national polling of their local by election successes since the Referendum coming through. It is the first poll under the new boundary calculation that gives them a double figure seat return.

The new figures increase the Tories average projected lead on Voting Intention to 12.2% and their average projected majority increases from 112 to 124. Labour are currently projected to be on 164 seats. All the up to date figures can be found here

By-Election in Bromsgrove

There was one by election this week in Bromsgrove and some happier new for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. While the Tories held this safe seat the incredibly low turnout enabled Labour to come surprisingly close to winning it with a swing in their favour of over 11%. This is out of line with recent performances and could be to do with the fact The Tories took their big majority in May 2015 for granted here. Labour will hope to the contrary that it is a turning point rather than a one off. The Lib Dems who have been very strong in local by elections recently did not stand here. The strong performance from Labour sees the Tories projected share lead over the Reds based on local by elections fall from 8.2% to 7.6%. All up to date figures can be found here The details of this by election and the two polls discussed are below.




Voting Intention

YouGov (19/01/2017) – Con 42% Lab 25% UKIP 12% LD 11% Green 3% – Con lead 17%

Ipsos-Mori (19/01/2017) – Con 43% Lab 31% UKIP 6% LD 11% Green 4% – Con lead 12%

Regional based seat Projection

YouGov – Con 372 Lab 156 LD 5 SNP44Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 144

Ipsos-Mori – Con 357 Lab 169 LD 11 SNP39 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 2 Green 1 Northern Ireland 18

Con Majority of 114


By Election 19/01/2017

Norton (Bromsgrove)Con 219 Lab 186 UKIP 82 Green 20Con HoldSwing (May 2015) Con-Lab 11.3%



Moon Of Liberty Newsround – 14th jan 2017


News Digest – 14th January 2017 @ 9.20 pm

The Sun – New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English gives Britain a Brexit boost with regard to trade deal after meeting with Theresa May

Daily Mail – EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier concedes he wants a special deal with London on financial services

CapX Comment – The EU Customs Unions is a protectionist racket – Ryan Bourne

Fox News – Vatican seeking youth input ahead of Bishop’s meeting

Telegraph – Queen is saddened by the death of Lord Snowdon

Spectator Comment – Michael Gove was accidentally right about experts – Fraser Nelson

The Sun – Theresa May vows to end European Court of Justice role in Britain

The Guardian – Green MEP Jean Lambert explains why she is standing for President of the European Parliament

Fox News – Family Feud host Steve Harvey meets Donald Trump to discuss policy on inner cities

New Statesman – How many more Labour MP’s could follow Tristram Hunt’s lead and resign?

Washington Examiner – DC National Guard commander will be forced out by Inauguration Day

Associated Press – Drone Schools look to woo younger pilots

ABC News – ‘Black Swan’ exercises taking place to practice in case of a US National emergency

The Sun – The best and worse UK banks for hidden charges

BBC News – Dozens die in IS attack on Dier Al-Zour in Syria

Sky News – Investors breathe life into the Green Deal scheme axed by UK ministers

Reuters – Officials say there are big risks in Donald Trump’s feud with security agencies

Newsweek Comment – Don’t kid youselves, Donald Trump is winning – Matthew Cooper

ABC News – Three Cleveland offices face charges after investigation into shooting of Tamir Rice

Bloomberg – Donald Trump promises a report on hacking within 90 days of taking office

Washington Journal – Parent of special needs child explains the difficulties of educating her son in US public schools